SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 At least the airmass can't get any crappier than it is now, I mean really a temp of near 60 with dews in the upper 50s in late January, just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 just dont like bowling balls with no block and a crappy airmass. Can't remember one that worked. Check this list.....wouldn't worry about details this far out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Check this list.....wouldn't worry about details this far out..... its a nice list, but doesnt match the patten the euro and gfs are showing for this storm, particularly the + anomolies over eastern canada and the southern strait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 its a nice list, but doesnt match the patten the euro and gfs are showing for this storm, particularly the + anomolies over eastern canada and the southern strait Actually, I think the Euro looks better than the CPC map.....better ridging near the DS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The GFS and EURO are vastly different. I will start with the GFS. The GFS has the ridge axis much further east then the EURO. There is a very deep trough with a lot of energy diving down on the backside. The GFS has a weak wave pass over the area, the same wave the EURO keys on. The setup for the earlier wave is not as supportive. The GFS keys on the energy driving down the backside of the trough into the base and by this point the pattern at H5 seems more supportive. A nice strong area of confluence with some blocking and higher hgts over the top, which would prevent the HP from budging. The EURO has a ridge axis that is not nearly as amped as the GFS and further west. It takes the first wave and drives it into WVA, and allows for a secondary off the NJ coast. There is a weak area of confluence and not much blocking yet. This pattern and what evolves at H5 seems less supportive of a snowstorm for our area. Ironically, the GFS is the model without the storm while the EURO has one. IMO I would think we would need a weak first wave and focus on the energy driving into the trough if we are going to see a snowstorm here. I think things would need to play out more like the GFS. So the reality is the solution for next weekend remains cloudy. No matter how you slice it the signals are clearly there for something. And the reality is models continue to key in on important factors such as +PNA ridge out west and a large area of confluence over SE Canada. As we get closer to the event these features have remained persistent, unlike on other occassions throughout this winter. I think it is safe to say that a more supportive pattern is unfolding. Interestingly enough, at 240hrs it appears as if the EURO is gearing up to show another snow threat for the NE. Most importantly, most models show signs that these signals are real and not transient. Although the first wave might not produce, I do believe the pattern in place next weekend and beyond will eventually produce a snowstorm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 At any rate, the Euro usually doesn't hang on to the wrong solution that long so we'll know in a day or two if this is for real or not. It's our best shot for something memorable in this atrocious winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 At any rate, the Euro usually doesn't hang on to the wrong solution that long so we'll know in a day or two if this is for real or not. It's our best shot for something memorable in this atrocious winter. I think our best shot is after this period. After the PNA ridge and the cold air are over our area. Somewhere between Feb. 7-12 timeframe and beyond. The Feb. 3rd storm comes in too early, IMO. We need everything to be perfect to get a snowstorm during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think our best shot is after this period. After the PNA ridge and the cold air are over our area. Somewhere between Feb. 7-12 timeframe and beyond. The Feb. 3rd storm comes in too early, IMO. We need everything to be perfet to get a snowstorm during that timeframe. You're right, I didn't mean to suggest it was over after next weekend, I meant our best shot so far....next week has a lot of work to do, but there is a major signal for something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If you notice the dates on the CPC analogs...they have some good storms about 5 days after the dates listed...which supports the idea that the pattern becomes more favorable after this threat rather than leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If you notice the dates on the CPC analogs...they have some good storms about 5 days after the dates listed...which supports the idea that the pattern becomes more favorable after this threat rather than leading up to it. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The GFS and EURO are vastly different. I will start with the GFS. The GFS has the ridge axis much further east then the EURO. There is a very deep trough with a lot of energy diving down on the backside. The GFS has a weak wave pass over the area, the same wave the EURO keys on. The setup for the earlier wave is not as supportive. The GFS keys on the energy driving down the backside of the trough into the base and by this point the pattern at H5 seems more supportive. A nice strong area of confluence with some blocking and higher hgts over the top, which would prevent the HP from budging. The EURO has a ridge axis that is not nearly as amped as the GFS and further west. It takes the first wave and drives it into WVA, and allows for a secondary off the NJ coast. There is a weak area of confluence and not much blocking yet. This pattern and what evolves at H5 seems less supportive of a snowstorm for our area. Ironically, the GFS is the model without the storm while the EURO has one. IMO I would think we would need a weak first wave and focus on the energy driving into the trough if we are going to see a snowstorm here. I think things would need to play out more like the GFS. So the reality is the solution for next weekend remains cloudy. Yes, fabulous post, im not sure everyone even knows this. The GFS shears out the euro storm and focuses on the next colder piece of energy, while the euro blows up the first one. It already changed a ton in 24 hrs, nevermind 180! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Upton - Long Range: THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WHICH IS A RARE EVENT THIS WINTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON AN EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DEVIATIONS WITH THE WAVE AND 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THINGS ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE IN THE WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MILD AIR IN PLACE MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THAT COLDER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Upton - Long Range: THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WHICH IS A RARE EVENT THIS WINTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON AN EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DEVIATIONS WITH THE WAVE AND 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THINGS ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE IN THE WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MILD AIR IN PLACE MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THAT COLDER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. sounds like a cold rain which makes sense given the pattern advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 sounds like a cold rain which makes sense given the pattern advertised. yea... the lack of a cold airmass is definitely a big problem.. especially if it plays out like the Euro solution.. either way, it's dicey at this point.. but there's hope, at least.. Hard to believe, this is basically the first real coastal threat of the winter to track... unless you count October 30th.. lol ... and I'm not sure if it should be classified as a real threat yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I am going to bust on my call because the pattern has not fully taken ahold yet. BUT.... FEB 10-15 time frame for a large storm, can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 18z dgex shows what a storm does in this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 18z dgex shows what a storm does in this type of pattern. next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 18z dgex shows what a storm does in this type of pattern. Often, but not always. And it's the DGEX long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 next. we're going to start running out of "nexts" pretty soon.. Our nexts are going to start being severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 we're going to start running out of "nexts" pretty soon.. Our nexts are going to start being severe weather yeah, we got basically 35-40 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 yeah, we got basically 35-40 days. well, since we pulled out an Oct 30th storm.. maybe we'll make some magic this year and get a surprise in May.. lol that'd be pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 well, since we pulled out an Oct 30th storm.. maybe we'll make some magic this year and get a surprise in May.. lol that'd be pretty funny. golf tournaments begin in May, NOT FUNNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The euro storm is fantasy, im not excited about the 1st wave, which the gfs keeps weak and sheared out. Whatever follows behind that is worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 golf tournaments begin in May, NOT FUNNY. Yea May is when i kick Trials ass in golf once and for all. I will wager that if i win he cant talk about how the weather affects his golf schedule everyday. If i lose he can still talk about his golf schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I posted a breakdown in the DC thread about the EC ensembles. Good news is that we have MJO support it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 golf tournaments begin in May, NOT FUNNY. you can golf in the snow... i remember playing tennis in the snow in high school in the spring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Trials, are you a lawyer? I assume so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Trials, are you a lawyer? I assume so. yes, but nothing to do with my screen name. TheTrials is one of my favorite marked skiing runs in the east at Mount Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I posted a breakdown in the DC thread about the EC ensembles. Good news is that we have MJO support it appears. I completely forgot about MJO. That's good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 yes, but nothing to do with my screen name. TheTrials is one of my favorite marked skiing runs in the east at Mount Snow. I wanted to choose weatherjay as my screen name, but it was taken.. that thing was my AOL email address for a long time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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