Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes, the data goes into all of the models. Any of the pro mets know that when they do the Pacific Recon flights for the storm if this is also incorporated into the foreign models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes, the data goes into all of the models. Not what he was asking. There was a specific recon mission into the pacific to sample the grid with more info. These missions are not flown often, and are usually reserved for high chance scenarios, or when the models have become totally disorientated and their solutions vary from run to run. Atown, I believe sometime this week, if not last nights 0z's suite. But don't quote me on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Not what he was asking. There was a specific recon mission into the pacific to sample the grid with more info. These missions are not flown often, and are usually reserved for high chance scenarios, or when the models have become totally disorientated and their solutions vary from run to run. Atown, I believe sometime this week, if not last nights 0z's suite. But don't quote me on that. My understanding was it was done last night but I was being told that they do not incorporate THAT data into the foreign models and that is why the GFS is so vastly different from the foreign models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 NOUS42 KNHC 301730 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55 C. 31/1830Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55 C. 01/0730Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dtk posted the map of drop locations for each mission and he said they are incorporated into all models. It's some where in the medium range discussion in the main forum but I'm not on my computer so its a pain to search for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 NOAA is pretty much obligated by treaty (through WMO) to share all its observational data (except anything which is gained via private vendors, this of course not being one of those cases). So I see no reason why the recon mission data wouldn't be incorporated into all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Thought i would gather some thoughts on this potential pattern in my blog..would appreciate any feedback http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/hold-on-a-minute-early-spring-a-potential-wintry-period-lurks-mid-february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Thought i would gather some thoughts on this potential pattern in my blog..would appreciate any feedback http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/hold-on-a-minute-early-spring-a-potential-wintry-period-lurks-mid-february Nice read. Great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Thought i would gather some thoughts on this potential pattern in my blog..would appreciate any feedback http://www.examiner....ks-mid-february Good write-up, just one thing about the MJO. You say immediately before it, "not just long range guidance" although with the MJO phase 8/1 potential we are technically banking on long range model guidance being correct in that depiction. It looks like a lock that we'll see a pretty amplified wave through octant 7 (and that is a major change from the winter thus far), but I'd say there's still a chance it dies going into 8 (or weakens significantly) and we don't really get those conducive 8-1-2 phases. Given how the MJO has behaved this winter, it wouldn't surprise me if it weakens rapidly in phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Good write-up, just one thing about the MJO. You say immediately before it, "not just long range guidance" although with the MJO phase 8/1 potential we are technically banking on long range model guidance being correct in that depiction. It looks like a lock that we'll see a pretty amplified wave through octant 7 (and that is a major change from the winter thus far), but I'd say there's still a chance it dies going into 8 (or weakens significantly) and we don't really get those conducive 8-1-2 phases. Given how the MJO has behaved this winter, it wouldn't surprise me if it weakens rapidly in phase 8. Great point, and thank you for highlighting that. This was really the first time I've ever mentioned the MJO in one of my articles because I am always attempting to simplify things for the facebook friend/family readers who have never heard of this stuff. So in that sense it was really my way to introduce it to my non-board audience. It's tough finding a balance, but I could have worded that part better. I also very much agree with your assertion about the lingering possibility this dies going into 8. It is the underlying reason why I was not more adament in the article actually, hanging on to words like "if" and "potential" lol. Also, in my thoughts I settled on the MJO probably clipping phase 8 and dieing before entering 1-2..which is why I am leaning on othe shorter 1-2 week period for this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice read. Great job. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 http://www.policlimate.com/climate/cdas_ao_nao_daily.png The NAO and AO are currently negative. Somethings gotta give...I mean...c'mon lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 http://www.policlimate.com/climate/cdas_ao_nao_daily.png The NAO and AO are currently negative. Somethings gotta give...I mean...c'mon lol. You have to look at more than the charts. You have to look at H5 and see what's going on. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=000&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Flat zonal flow across the pacific west coast, low heights near western central Greenland. Theres higher heights towards Europe, but that minimally affects effective downstream blocking for us. That gives those charts a "-NAO" but not one effective for us. The -AO showings up on them charts Are higher heights near the pole, however, on the other side of the world. Doesn't really help us out. A true -AO/-NAO wouldn't give us a torch on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What a pipe dream the 12z Euro long range pattern was. Not only do we have major ridging in the higher latitudes, and a huge ridge out west. The Euro also had a split flow out west with a real signal for troughiness and energy underneath the large PNA. What a classic overrunning pattern if anything were to eject northeast out of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What a pipe dream the 12z Euro long range pattern was. Not only do we have major ridging in the higher latitudes, and a huge ridge out west. The Euro also had a split flow out west with a real signal for troughiness and energy underneath the large PNA. What a classic overrunning pattern if anything were to eject northeast out of that area. IF we see that runs contiune, then we can probably get a large scale storm; the ones we all want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Also, it would be nice if the GEFS had a clue for once. I'm sure the board would light up if we started to see some of these solution on the OP models. Remains highly unlikely, but interesting to see that every single ensemble member shows it to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Dtk posted the map of drop locations for each mission and he said they are incorporated into all models. It's some where in the medium range discussion in the main forum but I'm not on my computer so its a pain to search for Here's the map you are talking about: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1306781 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 850 line on the GFS remains south, but storm is weak and suppressed. Definitely not budging to the Euro, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GFS is still well to the south of the area http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=108&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 850 line on the GFS remains south, but storm is weak and suppressed. Definitely not budging to the Euro, though. Its about 6 hrs slower..so it is slower in bringing the energy out..I think that is a step towards the ECM which hangs the energy back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Its about 6 hrs slower..so it is slower in bringing the energy out..I think that is a step towards the ECM which hangs the energy back.. Well, it definitely did not cut like the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 0z GGEM has the low going into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow no euro talk, guess it really is that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow no euro talk, guess it really is that bad. Yup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 84 nam looks like there would certainly be precip making it in the area for the weekend. Not sure if the cold air holds however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 84 nam looks like there would certainly be precip making it in the area for the weekend. Not sure if the cold air holds however The models have been terrible lately. Things are gonna change again and solutions may not be found till 60 hours or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is several inches of snow from the raritan river in NJ north according to the previously posted 850 and 2M temps DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Look in the previous post about the DGEX. That question was answered in a big way. 84 nam looks like there would certainly be precip making it in the area for the weekend. Not sure if the cold air holds however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 For once let the DGEX be right. I mean it's not 180 hours like when most snowstorms pop up on the DGEX lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.