SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It does. Just not as strong. Euro weeklies last night had a strong -nao by week 2 and going into week 3 and 4. The new euro weeklies Thursday night, will be telling. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html This link shows it neutral to slightly positive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml This link has it more positive than anything. A -NAO would be really important because it could give us a better chance at getting something but again I'm not counting on it just because of how dreadful this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 your first link may not include todays 12z gfs ensembles and your second link is current. We have been talking about changes coming and a neutral to slighly negative nao is better than what we have seen all winter. http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html This link shows it neutral to slightly positive. http://www.cpc.ncep....index_mrf.shtml This link has it more positive than anything. A -NAO would be really important because it could give us a better chance at getting something but again I'm not counting on it just because of how dreadful this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html This link shows it neutral to slightly positive. http://www.cpc.ncep....index_mrf.shtml This link has it more positive than anything. A -NAO would be really important because it could give us a better chance at getting something but again I'm not counting on it just because of how dreadful this winter has been. ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 -NAO appears like its developing by day 6. Here's the look by day Classic dual blocking signature on the Euro, if it's right, the pattern screams major winter storm threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The blocking registering as a -AO is really just a strong Scandinavian Ridge as the heights near Greenland have been lackluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Classic dual blocking signature on the Euro, if it's right, the pattern screams major winter storm threat.. Yes. That is a classic KU pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes. That is a classic KU pattern. I'm not sure why the thread title now says feb storm prospects fading. It seems to me a lot of folks were banking on the next week producing something memorable, when the real conducive pattern doesn't get going until the Feb 8th and beyond period, particularly Feb 10th-20th, when we'll have all the players aligned generally in our favor. The main question in my mind right now is the prospects of a -NAO developing - that's still debatable, and if so, what about the magnitude and duration? I think John mentioned earlier today about the warmth possibly coming back later in February if we don't get a -NAO to lock in, and I agree with that. I don't see the AO turning back positive any time soon, but a deteriorating pacific w/ poor tropical forcing could bring us back to a crappy pattern. I'd like to see how the next week plays out before making any statement on the NAO duration, but my guess atm is that March does feature a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It also says 'you are enaging is sping' so either there's an inside joke i'm not getting or this thread has been hijacked...or really bad spelling :-) I'm not sure why the thread title now says feb storm prospects fading. It seems to me a lot of folks were banking on the next week producing something memorable, when the real conducive pattern doesn't get going until the Feb 8th and beyond period, particularly Feb 10th-20th, when we'll have all the players aligned generally in our favor. The main question in my mind right now is the prospects of a -NAO developing - that's still debatable, and if so, what about the magnitude and duration? I think John mentioned earlier today about the warmth possibly coming back later in February if we don't get a -NAO to lock in, and I agree with that. I don't see the AO turning back positive any time soon, but a deteriorating pacific w/ poor tropical forcing could bring us back to a crappy pattern. I'd like to see how the next week plays out before making any statement on the NAO duration, but my guess atm is that March does feature a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm not sure why the thread title now says feb storm prospects fading. It seems to me a lot of folks were banking on the next week producing something memorable, when the real conducive pattern doesn't get going until the Feb 8th and beyond period, particularly Feb 10th-20th, when we'll have all the players aligned generally in our favor. The main question in my mind right now is the prospects of a -NAO developing - that's still debatable, and if so, what about the magnitude and duration? I think John mentioned earlier today about the warmth possibly coming back later in February if we don't get a -NAO to lock in, and I agree with that. I don't see the AO turning back positive any time soon, but a deteriorating pacific w/ poor tropical forcing could bring us back to a crappy pattern. I'd like to see how the next week plays out before making any statement on the NAO duration, but my guess atm is that March does feature a -NAO. ECMWF has a strong -NAO, classic one also. but like you, Tom. I have to wait to see some more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It also says 'you are enaging is sping' so either there's an inside joke i'm not getting or this thread has been hijacked...or really bad spelling :-) Its a inside joke kind of... DT once said that (aka Dave at WxRisk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean mirrors the GFS with it's east based blocking look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 ahhh.. got it... Its a inside joke kind of... DT once said that (aka Dave at WxRisk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I hope everyone is enjoying their blizzard: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean mirrors the GFS with it's east based blocking look. It's interesting to note that the majority of the mid latitudes are projected to be cold save for North America. There's an uninterupted zone of below normal heights from the Pacific, across Asia and Europe. Essentially it's the same theme as we've seen all winter -- Asia hogging most of the available cold air in the northern hemisphere. Teleconnectors improve greatly for the Eastern US by D 10, but even w/ a large scale trough we're likely to be talking only seasonable cold (which is sufficient for snowfall - but I wouldn't anticipate any arctic air in the Northeast). Maybe we'll see these proggs change in time, but right now it appears even w/ a massive PNA/-EPO, -AO, and Greenland block, we won't be able to muster any worthwhile cold in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's interesting to note that the majority of the mid latitudes are projected to be cold save for North America. There's an uninterupted zone of below normal heights from the Pacific, across Asia and Europe. Essentially it's the same theme as we've seen all winter -- Asia hogging most of the available cold air in the northern hemisphere. Teleconnectors improve greatly for the Eastern US by D 10, but even w/ a large scale trough we're likely to be talking only seasonable cold (which is sufficient for snowfall - but I wouldn't anticipate any arctic air in the Northeast). Maybe we'll see these proggs change in time, but right now it appears even w/ a massive PNA/-EPO, -AO, and Greenland block, we won't be able to muster any worthwhile cold in the Northeast. hey as long as we can muster a nice snowstorm out of this pattern i think alot of us would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z GFS gets really close to giving us a snowstorm on Saturday into Sunday. Really close. Precip shield as far north as Rt. 78. I can imagine that some of the individual ensemble members will be quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's interesting to note that the majority of the mid latitudes are projected to be cold save for North America. There's an uninterupted zone of below normal heights from the Pacific, across Asia and Europe. Essentially it's the same theme as we've seen all winter -- Asia hogging most of the available cold air in the northern hemisphere. Teleconnectors improve greatly for the Eastern US by D 10, but even w/ a large scale trough we're likely to be talking only seasonable cold (which is sufficient for snowfall - but I wouldn't anticipate any arctic air in the Northeast). Maybe we'll see these proggs change in time, but right now it appears even w/ a massive PNA/-EPO, -AO, and Greenland block, we won't be able to muster any worthwhile cold in the Northeast. You can see the Euro backing off the cold now. We could see a couple of mornings in the teens and an afternoon high around freezing. I think that the models switching to all the warmth over Canada this weekend really took a bite out of the long range cold prospects. But maybe we can sneak in another moderate snow event before the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am usually a massive fan of the Euro, but I must say that the last few days the GFS has been cleaning it's clock. You can see the Euro backing off the cold now. We could see a couple of mornings in the teens and an afternoon high around freezing. I think that the models switching to all the warmth over Canada this weekend really took a bite out of the long range cold prospects. But maybe we can sneak in another moderate snow event before the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z GFS gets really close to giving us a snowstorm on Saturday into Sunday. Really close. Precip shield as far north as Rt. 78. I can imagine that some of the individual ensemble members will be quite interesting. Yes, it is. Overall nice look to the storm, high placement, and cold air. Just need a little more juice/amplification and we are good for some snow/wintery precip. And being its the GFS days away, that is certainly a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 it looks pretty clear to me here that the Euro's run this afternoon is likely to be wrong. It is likely falling back into it's old trap of holding the energy back, while the GFS is doing something that looks much more reasonable by pulling the energy out and sliding south of the high pressure area over southeastern Canada. We may get some snow this weekend just like the models showed a couple of days ago. The northern trend already commenced on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You can already see the moisture swirling in the Gulf at 150 hrs, waiting for all the energy to drop in and produce what could be a massive storm for the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You can already see the moisture swirling in the Gulf at 150 hrs, waiting for all the energy to drop in and produce what could be a massive storm for the following weekend. The Gulf is open for business next week. Just need a vort to drop in and pick up some friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z GFS gets really close to giving us a snowstorm on Saturday into Sunday. Really close. Precip shield as far north as Rt. 78. I can imagine that some of the individual ensemble members will be quite interesting. Just a slight shift in the track to the northeast by 100 miles and will bring the accumulating precip into nyc metro and the seasonal trend this far out has been a north and west jog that actually verifies ( how many systems have missed us to the south this season ?)....But we also have to watch out for freezing rain in this type of set up......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You can see the Euro backing off the cold now. We could see a couple of mornings in the teens and an afternoon high around freezing. I think that the models switching to all the warmth over Canada this weekend really took a bite out of the long range cold prospects. But maybe we can sneak in another moderate snow event before the pattern breaks down. There just isn't much cold air to begin with. It took three cold fronts during the past few days just to bring us down to seasonable temps for highs, and that was basically one short lived 18 hour period yesterday until the torch re-emerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 There just isn't much cold air to begin with. It took three cold fronts during the past few days just to bring us down to seasonable temps for highs, and that was basically one short lived 18 hour period yesterday until the torch re-emerged. The winter of 2009-2010 did not have much cold either, if any. Just a super block that provided the goods. Not saying that will happen this February, but we don't really need big cold, its a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The latest gfs finally shows more of a -NAO pattern in the long range, which I haven't seen as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z GFS ensembles brings accumulating frozen in to central jersey at 120hr - lots of potential for this to trend north the next few days http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 There just isn't much cold air to begin with. It took three cold fronts during the past few days just to bring us down to seasonable temps for highs, and that was basically one short lived 18 hour period yesterday until the torch re-emerged. The euro tried to bring the pv in quebec, that was always laughable. The pattern does not support bringing the pv anywhere near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Any of the pro mets know that when they do the Pacific Recon flights for the storm if this is also incorporated into the foreign models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's always shopwing something in the long range-reality is, it never pans out. Yeah I would normally agree but the Euro showed something similar and the gfs never had a sustained block before in any range this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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