Weathergun Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 These are the 500mb composities for the MJO in phases 7,8, and 1 in February. You will see that there is at least weak -NAO in phase 8. Also the lowest height anomalies along the East Coast, are in phase 8. While phase 1 shows the -PNA and +NAO returning: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html Phase 7 Phase 8 Phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I really want to see what the MJO forecasts show in the coming days..Obviously the majority have been showing the progression that we've all been looking for into the favorable phases in the recent week, lending a hand to this window for a good pattern. However, some more recent predictions are hinting at it peaking into phase 7 and then heading back towards the circle of death, only clipping phase 8. I hope that doesnt happen, but if it did then we may be talking about the shorter window Earthlight just alluded to. Let's get that thing to propogate around to phases 1 and 2! Well phase 8 historically is pretty important for blocking. I agree with the progression through it being important though. I'm interested in seeing the GFS Super Ensemble this afternoon. They have been bullish with high latitude ridging the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I do not think many people here are actually thinking the MJO gets anywhere past phase 8, its much more likely it starts to die into the COD as it makes progess in phase 8. If this happens, we get maybe 1 week to produce a storm before the pattern reverts into a more zonal flow which floods the country with pacific air. I haven't heard the chatter elsewhere, but I'll take your word for it. It's been tough for a wave to get passed the ENSO forcing all winter. I'm okay with a quick window of time here, I cant say I really expected anything else. alls I really expected/am expecting is that a huge PNA ridge goes up in the next few days and delivers a winter-like pattern for part of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well phase 8 historically is pretty important for blocking. I agree with the progression through it being important though. I'm interested in seeing the GFS Super Ensemble this afternoon. They have been bullish with high latitude ridging the last two days. What I fear is that the Super Ensemble and European Weeklies can be very wrong with their predicitons with the blocking signature all because of the MJO forecast progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't see much cold air making it here on the ecmwf. The compact vortex near the davis straits is negating the effects of the w canada ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 New MJO forecasts are out...Ehh http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 New MJO forecasts are out...Ehh http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Looks pretty similar to last nights stuff. The NCEP data is much more enthusiastic with a huge MJO impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gfs is much further south at 108hrs..We have some cold air wedged in..Maybe we can sneek another overunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gfs is much further south at 108hrs..We have some cold air wedged in..Maybe we can sneek another overunning event. Also colder with those highs to the north. 6z GFS didn't have those highs up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I thought the 12z GFS looked MUCH better for overrunning no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I thought the 12z GFS looked MUCH better for overrunning no?? 12Z The system is about 300 miles east in each comparable 6z frame and moves directly east off the NC coast without any northern move and we get no precip................strong high pressure is suppressing it - this run is much better then the inland secondary up the coast run and any slight northern move and turn up the coast and we are in the frozen precip - hard to believe this will just scoot directly east off the coast and out to the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I thought the 12z GFS looked MUCH better for overrunning no?? Main QPF shield would be too far south for most of us, but its still something to watch. I like the idea better of a secondary low popping off the mid-atlantic coast in this setup rather than a supressed mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GGEM is really different than the GFS. It has the low going through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GGEM is really different than the GFS. It has the low going through the lakes. Any re-development? I don't think a pure lakes cutter is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I love how the UKMET just slides this thing south past us like the GFS does. It just disappears as it slides east. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GEFS looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GEFS looks like the GFS. At least the maps we've seen from the GFS and looks like the UKMet show more potential than if it floods us with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At least the maps we've seen from the GFS and looks like the UKMet show more potential than if it floods us with warm air. Not sure what you guys are looking for here. We get a lakes cutter that floods us with warm air or we get cold and flurries as it passes to our south. The orientation of the ridge out west is really killing us. If it was more aligned north to south, we wouldn't have ended up with a cut off low out west. The system would have dug much further south and we would have been in business. Any redevelopment offshore looks to be too far south and east except for maybe eastern Long Island and far eastern New England. Per the 6z DGEX, temps only drop below 30 degrees once on the entire run in NYC, gotta love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 To me, it looks like the models are slowly going right back to what they showed a couple of days ago, trying to drive the system into that high over Southeast Canada, then sliding it east, or re-developing it near the coast. In my humble opinion, this may very well come further north again, just as it did a couple of days ago. How often have we seen he models do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 To me, it looks like the models are slowly going right back to what they showed a couple of days ago, trying to drive the system into that high over Southeast Canada, then sliding it east, or re-developing it near the coast. In my humble opinion, this may very well come further north again, just as it did a couple of days ago. How often have we seen he models do this? It's the strength/position of the high pressure thats flexing its muscles here. The GFS shows a supressed mess right now. A more amplified/stronger wave would be more likely to produce better secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GEFS for mid month. Strong signal for a storm along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Interesting find of the day -- a few of the GFS ensemble members dampen out the shortwave and allow a confluent flow to take over -- but then bring a shortwave in to the mean trough and strengthen a surface low off the coast. 4 of them turn into snowstorms. http://www.meteo.psu...NE_12z/f150.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I posted here yesterday that i thought this was going to belly under and i believe that more than i did yesterday . This is not going to the lakes IMO in the face of a neg NAO . Today i am of the opinion that once to the east coast you may get better developement than the models see . I dont see this escaping . These systems like to bowling ball under the confluence and once to the coast intensify . As i said yesterday im not concerned with the track ending up south and eats of the area but the lack of cold air . So where i see promise , I see problems . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Interesting find of the day -- a few of the GFS ensemble members dampen out the shortwave and allow a confluent flow to take over -- but then bring a shortwave in to the mean trough and strengthen a surface low off the coast. 4 of them turn into snowstorms. http://www.meteo.psu...NE_12z/f150.gif http://www.meteo.psu...RS_12z/f156.gif Nice find indeed. This is just shows us that there's nothing set in stone just yet. It doesn't mean it's going to snow but what it does mean is that no one solution is guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro? Nothing great or significant changes, the 10 day ensemble still looks good though. Negative NAO/blocking over Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro? Average temps Thursday through Sunday. Then a 1 day torch ahead of the Sunday/Monday cutter and then +PNA and a developing -NAO take over after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Average temps Thursday through Sunday. Then a 1 day torch ahead of the Sunday/Monday cutter and then +PNA and a developing -NAO take over after. -NAO appears like its developing by day 6. Here's the look by day 9: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 How come the gfs doesn't show the -NAO in the longer ranges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 How come the gfs doesn't show the -NAO in the longer ranges? It does. Just not as strong. Euro weeklies last night had a strong -nao by week 2 and going into week 3 and 4. The new euro weeklies Thursday night, will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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