mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GGEM That looks a bit like the GFS of a few days ago. Interesting that the normally warmer GGEM is like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GGEM Gotta love that map, snow showers in Dallas and record heat in Calgary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Super bowl weekend looks gone on the ECM and we now have a new system or threat ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 0z JMA remains moist for Thursday...delivering about 0.50 liquid equivalent to NYC...0z GFS printed out 0.54 liquid as close as Atlantic City...so something to monitor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 will we go boom at 216 like that matters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 6Z GFS is back to the idea of the primary running up to the ohio valley and then a secondary forms over the southeast well inland and rides inland up the coast - we saw a similar soulution 2 days ago BUT both the op and ensembles still have the HP in southeast canada - lower levels might be able to support ice- freezing rain in the i-95 corridor in this type of situation ................. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06144.gif FWIW the 6Z GFS ensemble is different then the op http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 HPC morning maps have the storm more progressive coming out of the central plains working its way to the ohio valley before a secondary pops off the georgia coast and works its way up the coast offshore -BUT once again in the discussion - low confidence outlook http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 To the Euro's credit, it saw the SW cutoff idea first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 What happened to all the cold air in mid feb? We have trouble getting to -10 at 850, let alone -20 or colder. The fear of the pna ridge deamplifying as it heads east and the PV never making it into SE Canada is seamingly more likely. Instead the PV looks to make a loop before it heads back toward AK. As I have been stating for days, I still have no faith in this "pattern change" lasting more than a week. If you saw week 2 and week 3 of the European don`t think you would post stuff like this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 As long as the Euro continues to hold serve its not a matter if we get a storm its a matter of when. Absolutely gorgeous with ridging extending all the way into Russia. See how on the Euro the ridging is oriented much more north south rather than northeast southwest on the GEFS? I just can not get over how beautiful the EC really is, best we have seen this winter by a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's a little scary that all the models have a cutoff low. If it was only one of them, it would be fine but not all of them. Lets hope it's not right because it would flood the area with mild area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Everyone wants to just skip past later this week. It is a volatile and uncertain pattern, the outcome is far from determined. Yet everyone wants to focus on next week in the long range because "it looks favorable" yet we can't even determine the weather and pattern for the end of this week. All options still remain on the table. I was not impressed by the gfs in the long range The operational models have been horrible all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 if the AO stays negative as predicted look for some interesting weather in February and March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 MJO from the GEFS. Looks really strong in 7. Now, we have to get it to 8 to get in on some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's a little scary that all the models have a cutoff low. If it was only one of them, it would be fine but not all of them. Lets hope it's not right because it would flood the area with mild area. Time to move past the cutoff upper level low and look to the future. Every single ensemble forecast has a big west coast ridge and some help from the Atlantic. The GFS super ensemble has been barking for days and the Euro weeklies are now as well. We are going to have some help from a big MJO impulse. Who cares about a cutoff low which comes when we have a horrible antecedent airmass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 To the Euro's credit, it saw the SW cutoff first Yes..I believe this is the second time this winter that this has happened. Not sure if it's gettin lucky with its bias..or if it has finally figured out in regards to shortwaves in that area which it historically struggles with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes..I believe this is the second time this winter that this has happened. Not sure if it's gettin lucky with its bias..or if it has finally figured out in regards to shortwaves in that area which it historically struggles with. I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The one thing I would caution as we head into February with talk of the potential wintry weather around the 10th...is that the pattern could be fairly short lived. The Pacific looks good from basically day 8 through 14. After that it's somewhat of a toss up. Ridges like we are seeing modeled in the a pacific do not stay amplified like that for several weeks..they will either be replaced or will collapse. If we end up not getting much help from the Atlantic side...the ridge could collapse east around the 15th-18th and Pacific air will flood the country again. So we have the potential for something big..but it's dissimilar to the last few years in a sense because we only have one shot at it. I can't speak for what's going to happen down the road the 2nd half of February into March...but I'm thinking the next few weeks could be the peak potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The one thing I would caution as we head into February with talk of the potential wintry weather around the 10th...is that the pattern could be fairly short lived. The Pacific looks good from basically day 8 through 14. After that it's somewhat of a toss up. Ridges like we are seeing modeled in the a pacific do not stay amplified like that for several weeks..they will either be replaced or will collapse. If we end up not getting much help from the Atlantic side...the ridge could collapse east around the 15th-18th and Pacific air will flood the country again. So we have the potential for something big..but it's dissimilar to the last few years in a sense because we only have one shot at it. I can't speak for what's going to happen down the road the 2nd half of February into March...but I'm thinking the next few weeks could be the peak potential. That's what the 0z Euro ensembles hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That's what the 0z Euro ensembles hinted at. I haven't seen them, but that's not totally surprising. The GEFS look better so I would probably take a blend right now if I were forecasting. I've noticed this winter that the Euro ensembles can be a little trigger happy with changes in the longer range. We will see in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I haven't seen them, but that's not totally surprising. The GEFS look better so I would probably take a blend right now if I were forecasting. I've noticed this winter that the Euro ensembles can be a little trigger happy with changes in the longer range. We will see in time. I remember back in December that the Euro ensembles kept on bringing the cold in the long range which never verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes..I believe this is the second time this winter that this has happened. Not sure if it's gettin lucky with its bias..or if it has finally figured out in regards to shortwaves in that area which it historically struggles with. The euro had the cutoff in the day 7-10 range but lost it up until last night. The GFS had the cutoff first in the medium range around day 6 and never lost it. Euro was last to catch on in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That's what the 0z Euro ensembles hinted at. Perhaps due to difference in MJO forecasts. The GEFS has the MJO still strong into phases 7/8 in 11-15 days. Which ECMWF shows it gradually collapsing again in those phases in 11-15 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 -NAO with a raging PNA. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Again, the x factor is if the ECMWF weeklies are correct with the NAO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I really want to see what the MJO forecasts show in the coming days..Obviously the majority have been showing the progression that we've all been looking for into the favorable phases in the recent week, lending a hand to this window for a good pattern. However, some more recent predictions are hinting at it peaking into phase 7 and then heading back towards the circle of death, only clipping phase 8. I hope that doesnt happen, but if it did then we may be talking about the shorter window Earthlight just alluded to. Let's get that thing to propogate around to phases 1 and 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Again, the x factor is if the ECMWF weeklies are correct with the NAO.... We would need a -NAO if a -PNA comes back. The Euro weeklies have a -PNA coming back by week 4 but a -NAO is also in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Again, the x factor is if the ECMWF weeklies are correct with the NAO.... To my understanding, the weeklies flipped cold largely because they have the MJO propogating along through the good phases. So I'll go back to the post above when saying the MJO is probably the x factor in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 To my understanding, the weeklies flipped cold largely because they have the MJO propogating along through the good phases. So I'll go back to the post above when saying the MJO is probably the x factor in this pattern. The weeklies are pretty MJO heavy. Thursdays will be big...a few times this year we have seen the Monday weeklies show something and the Thursday weeklies pull the rug out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I really want to see what the MJO forecasts show in the coming days..Obviously the majority have been showing the progression that we've all been looking for into the favorable phases in the recent week, lending a hand to this window for a good pattern. However, some more recent predictions are hinting at it peaking into phase 7 and then heading back towards the circle of death, only clipping phase 8. I hope that doesnt happen, but if it did then we may be talking about the shorter window Earthlight just alluded to. Let's get that thing to propogate around to phases 1 and 2! I do not think many people here are actually thinking the MJO gets anywhere past phase 8, its much more likely it starts to die into the COD as it makes progess in phase 8. If this happens, we get maybe 1 week to produce a storm before the pattern reverts into a more zonal flow which floods the country with pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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