SBUWX23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Where do you get this plot from? The GFS super ensemble from this afternoon remained extremely favorable moving into week two (days 8-14). In fact they remain extremely similar to yesterdays run -- which also featured a strong signal for ridging on the west coast as well as a above normal heights pushing into Greenland. The positive height anomalies over British Columbia and Greenland are very favorable for cold air and potential snow in our area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS is north with the friday storm. It gives the area light precip. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Where do you get this plot from? I have the direct .gif image link saved from a while ago...I check it every afternoon. Not sure if there's a main page for the plot -- but it comes from the CPC site. Link is below. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS is north with the friday storm. It gives the area light precip. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Boundary layer is too warm for frozen QPF in our area -- it shows a light amount of frozen QPF over Central NJ where the precipitation is heavier and the column can cool faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think the only issue with the plan is how strong the negative NAO is, and how that impacts the trends. IF on Thursday, the Weeklies hold serve, then we'd are probably very well off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thanks! I have the direct .gif image link saved from a while ago...I check it every afternoon. Not sure if there's a main page for the plot -- but it comes from the CPC site. Link is below. http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 A colder look at hr. 129, but the storm looks disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 As expected and what makes sense, the GFS is unable to force the lp into the area of confluence. It essentially hits a road block this run, sits and erodes. At a time it appears like it will try to let some energy escape to the east and result in overrunning but it just doesn't happen this run. This run is much further east and cooler then other runs. Still nothing really results from this run, it decays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 As expected and what makes sense, the GFS is unable to force the lp into the area of confluence. It essentially hits a road block this run, sits and erodes. At a time it appears like it will try to let some energy escape to the east and result in overrunning but it just doesn't happen this run. This run is much further east and cooler then other runs. Still nothing really results from this run, it decays. I guess it gives some hope for future runs if it would actually show redevelopment at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Now there is a secondary taking over of the mid atlantic coast. Weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Now there is a secondary taking over of the mid atlantic coast. Weird run. Looks like it starts off frozen but then changes to rain as the low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Eventually the models are going to "get it" with this storm and it will probably all happen in 1 run with some sort of large scale shift to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Boundary layer is too warm for frozen QPF in our area -- it shows a light amount of frozen QPF over Central NJ where the precipitation is heavier and the column can cool faster. I think you do an outstanding job but there is not a chance in ten trillion that with cold air building in from the north there will be rain to the north and frozen precip to the south....no matter how fast it is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Looks like it starts off frozen but then changes to rain as the low approaches. Draws in cold air, but I'm not sure there will be anything left by the time it is frozen. Definitely a different run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Now there is a secondary taking over of the mid atlantic coast. Weird run. Still warm for the coast. It doesn't deepen enough. But that's taken verbatim on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At 159 the gfs pops a secondary, just a bit to late and a tad too warm. This just shows how variable the solutions have been and that everything is on the table. If the low can escape east under the confluence it is a much more favorable solution if you like the colder outcome. Like I have said all along I doubt the lp will drive right through the center of the confluence, makes no sense but that does not mean it won't stall and decay. Regardless, I don't buy into the solutions with the major warmup and cutting storm with strong waa, not going to happen. As we can see many things can happen as this pattern is difficult for the models. If anything we continue to tick towards the euro solution, at least on the gfs and I don't think we are even close to seeing the final outcome yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thats an anti-NYC Miller B like a 12/9/95 or 12/9/05, you'll get plenty of snow just inland but zilch at the coast assuming it occurred EXACTLY as shown now at 160 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think you do an outstanding job but there is not a chance in ten trillion that with cold air building in from the north there will be rain to the north and frozen precip to the south....no matter how fast it is falling. Lol, I think it's pretty unlikely too. But I was just relaying the frozen QPF graphics I was looking at..exactly as they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thats an anti-NYC Miller B like a 12/9/95 or 12/9/05, you'll get plenty of snow just inland but zilch at the coast assuming it occurred EXACTLY as shown now at 160 hours. I don't think people would want that setup; too convoluted for a Miller B, odd banding as well. But its 160 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Still a signal for a long range storm - it's S&E like the GFS often is (or have they fixed this bias)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 0z GGEM is OTS with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't think people would want that setup; too convoluted for a Miller B, odd banding as well. But its 160 hours out. What unfolds for us may be 160 hrs out, but we see that energy as early as 60-72 hrs and it takes a long time to get here because the gfs still slowly drags it east. It's a very complex pattern and models just aren't getting it yet. I know they struggle whenever we have a major pattern shift or change occurring and I'm not surprised that they are very inconsistent right now. Hopefully everything sorts out within the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 this weekend storm is whatever..big story is the PNA ridge holds strong throughout the entire run..We just gotta be patient. Im sure all of the stars will align at some point this month and we get our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am not that impressed by the 0z gas. Sure it has a nice ridge out west but it lacks the blocking previous runs showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 this weekend storm is whatever..big story is the PNA ridge holds strong throughout the entire run..We just gotta be patient. Im sure all of the stars will align at some point this month and we get our storm. Everyone wants to just skip past later this week. It is a volatile and uncertain pattern, the outcome is far from determined. Yet everyone wants to focus on next week in the long range because "it looks favorable" yet we can't even determine the weather and pattern for the end of this week. All options still remain on the table. I was not impressed by the gfs in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 this weekend storm is whatever..big story is the PNA ridge holds strong throughout the entire run..We just gotta be patient. Im sure all of the stars will align at some point this month and we get our storm. With a little blocking, makes sense to at least see something. Probibly won't know it until inside 72h, and sure we could sneek a KU in there, as we did in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Everyone wants to just skip past later this week. It is a volatile and uncertain pattern, the outcome is far from determined. Yet everyone wants to focus on next week in the long range because "it looks favorable" yet we can't even determine the weather and pattern for the end of this week. All options still remain on the table. I was not impressed by the gfs in the long range well i don't want to skip past this weekend lol, i said "whatever" because we won't know the blueprint for the storm for a while. We will continue to see changes, but lets be real, the chances for accumulating snowfall from that system is decreasing fast. The 1 thing that hasnt been changing on the models is the west coast ridge and that's what will increase our chance in the long range for the stars to align at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Everyone wants to just skip past later this week. It is a volatile and uncertain pattern, the outcome is far from determined. Yet everyone wants to focus on next week in the long range because "it looks favorable" yet we can't even determine the weather and pattern for the end of this week. All options still remain on the table. I was not impressed by the gfs in the long range Well, I think generally if you're digging for gold at the end of this week you aren't going to find it. The antecedent airmass is absolutely horrible and becomes stagnant while the cutoff low meanders over the Plains. There is no new source of arctic air despite some weak confluent flow over Canada. You aren't going to get snow anywhere near the coast in that synoptic setup -- we would need a drastic change. I've seen crazier things, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am not that impressed by the 0z gas. Sure it has a nice ridge out west but it lacks the blocking previous runs showed. It still has a ridge near Greenland around the 8th and 9th which sets the table for something significant around the 10th give or take a few days. There's a split flow underneath the massive ridge out west...and the current idea is that something could slide east from the southern stream and interact with the Polar Vortex. You can see the development pretty clearly after 200 hours when you loop through here. There's been a signal around the 10th for several days now. The MJO adds significant support to this general time frame as does most of the global ensemble guidance around 8-14 days. I think that is our time frame to watch for something potentially big. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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