NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ok, from a raw index perspective. Sure we will probably get a +PNA, however those maps are awful for delivering cold into the Northeast. The PV is over and NW of AK. No. you really cannot interpret that at all from the 2 images I posted...Loop the GEFS mean to see what I am talking about.. What happens is, we get the first PNA amplification at the end of this week, and the PV that is over Alaska currently splits (one piece heads into Asia, and the other one is now heading into Canada at the f168 map I posted from the 12z GEFS. Part of the reason why some models are cutting off the Feb 3-4th potential storm shortwave I'd say is because the ridge is rolling over it in response to the PV that splits off and starts heading towards Canada. By the time the f168 map comes around, the Pacific jet extends in response to the MJO forcing in phase 7-8-1, ridging shoots up into Alaska, and the only place for that PV to go is south into Hudson's Bay/SE Canada...How long it stays there before things retrograde, I dont know. But Im pretty darn confident we get at least a 10 day window here for cold and hopefully winter storm threats with a PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Something has to give with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Vort really digging in the SW. Does not leave energy off the CA coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Again, the GFS waits so long that it warms us and then a new cold air source comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Euro weeklies are pretty sweet looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Again, the GFS waits so long that it warms us and then a new cold air source comes in. Because the h5 low closes off again west of Texas. No chance of snow with that occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Euro weeklies are pretty sweet looking. Care to share? ( roughly .. I know they're super top secret) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Care to share? ( roughly .. I know they're super top secret) Week 2 is transition week and weeks 3 and 4 start a rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Week 2 is transition week and weeks 3 and 4 start a rockin. Weeks 3 and 4!!!!! Thats MARCH. Just as we thought, cold and wet just in time for Spring. It will have been 40s and 50s for 8 months straight, Nov--> May. The worst part is, it has been warm, but there hasnt been a really warm day in the 60's with sun. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Weeks 3 and 4!!!!! Thats MARCH. Uh, I could be wrong, but I think week one starts today, so weeks 3 and 4 are definitely still February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Weeks 3 and 4!!!!! Thats MARCH. Just as we thought, cold and wet just in time for Spring Stop this crap. Week 3 is February 13th, the second half of week two could be good as well. That's around Feb 10th which is a date people have been talking about for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z DGEX different then GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yes, that is just a wee bit different. What is interesting is how much this looks like most of the major models did yesterday. 18z DGEX different then GFS http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The model flip flopping is not even close to being over. Until 72 hours out no model can be trusted and the way its been that may be too far out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This weekend storm doesn't look like it's going to happen. The week 2 storm is looking interesting though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The model flip flopping is not even close to being over. Until 72 hours out no model can be trusted and the way its been that may be too far out as well. Models will have the pacific recon data from the early week flight soon - so about 0Z Wednesday the models will become a little more accurate with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This weekend storm doesn't look like it's going to happen. The week 2 storm is looking interesting though... It wouldn't take much to strengthen that just a bit and nudge it north to see some light snow - still + 72h out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It wouldn't take much to strengthen that just a bit and nudge it north to see some light snow - still + 72h out. He means something next week, not that wave a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Week 2 is transition week and weeks 3 and 4 start a rockin. I wouldn't even call Week 2 a transition week. It's a very strong +PNA with negative anoms along the East Coast. It's not ideal for a major snowstorm, but it's way better than the current regime. Week 3 goes weak -EPO and strong -NAO, Week 4 has -PNA/-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Here's the long range storm again. Showing up a lot for being so far out: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I wouldn't even call Week 2 a transition week. It's a very strong +PNA with negative anoms along the East Coast. It's not ideal for a major snowstorm, but it's way better than the current regime. Week 3 goes weak -EPO and strong -NAO, Week 4 has -PNA/-NAO. That seems to fit pretty well with most of the other global guidance's general idea moving forward. Because the ridge collapses to the east initially at the end of the week, positive height anomalies move into Central Canada with the core of the polar air still displaced over the Pacific side of the Arctic Circle. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f120.gif But all of the guidance agrees that the PNA will spike again with an axis near Boise..or generally in a much more favorable spot. This is juxtaposed with an increasingly favorable MJO which argues that we could enter a colder and potentially snowy pattern beginning around 10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 But all of the guidance agrees that the PNA will spike again with an axis near Boise..or generally in a much more favorable spot. This is juxtaposed with an increasingly favorable MJO which argues that we could enter a colder and potentially snowy pattern beginning around 10 days from now. I agree 100%. It's not explicit in the weeklies, given how they are averaged, but I fully expect an MJO P8-1 to set up around Feb 8-10 and last through Feb 13-15 (if not a smidge longer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The current state of tropical forcing, through the end of this week, argues for the Feb 3-5th event to track through the Plains and Great Lakes (maybe not excactly like modelling right now, but still a bad solution for us) MJO will still be in phase 6 / entering phase phase 7 by the weekend, which continues to promote a pretty warm picture in our neck of the woods w/ the bulk of the pcpn off to the west (hence the inland tracking lows). The MJO in general has reflected our weather pretty well so far this winter (blowtorch) so I definitely believe its a viable tool moving forward, and one of the primary reasons why I believe this upcoming pattern is for real (in terms of finally getting cold into the northeast). The onset of colder weather appears it will be timed fairly closely to the MJO deepening phase 7-8 and circulating into 1 probably 10-15 days from now. By this time we'll also finally have the AK vortex retrograding and high heights connecting over the top of the globe, in conjuncting with the PNA spike / -EPO configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z DGEX different then GFS http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06138.gif It looks like 2/4/95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The GFS super ensemble from this afternoon remained extremely favorable moving into week two (days 8-14). In fact they remain extremely similar to yesterdays run -- which also featured a strong signal for ridging on the west coast as well as a above normal heights pushing into Greenland. The positive height anomalies over British Columbia and Greenland are very favorable for cold air and potential snow in our area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The GFS super ensemble from this afternoon remained extremely favorable moving into week two (days 8-14). In fact they remain extremely similar to yesterdays run -- which also featured a strong signal for ridging on the west coast as well as a above normal heights pushing into Greenland. The positive height anomalies over British Columbia and Greenland are very favorable for cold air and potential snow in our area. . That's pretty sexy. Seems to match up well with the euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The GFS super ensemble from this afternoon remained extremely favorable moving into week two (days 8-14). In fact they remain extremely similar to yesterdays run -- which also featured a strong signal for ridging on the west coast as well as a above normal heights pushing into Greenland. The positive height anomalies over British Columbia and Greenland are very favorable for cold air and potential snow in our area. . Classic look. Finally a trough in all the right places, Aleutians, Europe, and ridging from AK/BC across the top of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That's pretty sexy. Seems to match up well with the euro weeklies. It matches up very well to the descriptions I read. I don't have direct access to the H5 maps though so I won't speak directly to it. Interesting to note...and it's far out so don't read into it to much..but the GEFS have a very strong Miller B/re-developing signal around the 10th of February. They very literally drop of a piece of the Polar Vortex due south..to the east of the monster ridge that extends into British Columbia. Just something to watch moving forward. All of this is exciting..especially the weeklies developments...but I think it's definitely worth a pause. Lets check out how the medium range stuff looks on Thursday with the new weeklies...and see where we stand. By that point we should have a much better idea as to if this is fantasy or not. For the record I don't think it is...especially with the major help forecast from the MJO. But medium range forecasts have been so bad...I would say expect the unexpected this winter. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Classic look. Finally a trough in all the right places, Aleutians, Europe, and ridging from AK/BC across the top of the globe. Except for one thing.. well, not one thing, but would like to see STJ to get an impluse... That map looks a bit too negative tilted, but then again, its an analog map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 With a lack ot STJ, we will need the polar jet to dig quite far south, which is very possible in massively amplified PNA ridge and with blocking on Greenland, I reckon.. But it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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