CooL Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 euro has overrunning from 120-132..850 line runs east to west thru Trenton. Light-mod precip for us..Another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I believe this will eventually belly under and exit in the NE . I believe in the PNA and dont think this runs to the lakes . Our problem this year has not been storms running to the lakes We`ve had several benchmark storms this year that were just devoid of cold air ( more my concern , than a run to the lakes ) .If Jan storms were`t running over and over again to the lakes with a pos NAO and a weak PNA im gona bet the ridge axis winds up in the same place for this . And enough troughness shows up by weeks end to bring it under . You need something to stop the low from cutting (a blocking high, 50-50 low, high heights over Greenland, etc). A +PNA alone doesn't do it, esp. if it's far west. If it's amplified it will cut SOMEWHERE, but if it's in the right spot it cuts just offshore and it's called a Nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The ridge amplification out west is as early as day 3 on the euro. People need to stop worrying about this being a 10+ day fantasy. Also EURO has the low progress eastward under the confluence and provides an overruning setup. Nothing major. Strong ridge out west also continues and nice low dropping down out of Canada, which should bring the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am a fan of all manner of anomalous weather (except extreme cold, bc that sucks), so if we see a major snowstorm after one of the longest periods of above-32 temps in NYC history for late Jan/early Feb, that would be something. It would be interesting to see how plants around here respond, as small trees and bushes have begun to bloom in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You need something to stop the low from cutting (a blocking high, 50-50 low, high heights over Greenland, etc). A +PNA alone doesn't do it, esp. if it's far west. If it's amplified it will cut SOMEWHERE, but if it's in the right spot it cuts just offshore and it's called a Nor'easter Gotta make up our minds , is the pattern still progressive ? The PNA still migrates so this doesnt get pinched off there should be enough confluence IMO not to run to the lakes The Euro supports a nuetral to neg NAO in this timeframe . some say its not in the perfect spot and its probably not , but should be enough downstream progression to allow this not to cut . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The shortwave kind of meanders over the Central US for a while...and now there's a monster shortwave coming due south from Central Canada to phase with it. Its gonna blow up a big storm most likely...not sure where exactly. Maybe a bit too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The weenieshave destroyed this thread the last few pages. Grow up. The 12z euro not holding back the shortwave should be a red flag. It's going against it's own bias of holding back energy. Not sure what to make of it, but something has to give. GFS or euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It would be quite rare for the Euro to give to the GFS. 90% of the time it is the other way around. The weenieshave destroyed this thread the last few pages. Grow up. The 12z euro not holding back the shortwave should be a red flag. It's going against it's own bias of holding back energy. Not sure what to make of it, but something has to give. GFS or euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Potential for serious overrunning on the 12Z models around Day 5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The weenieshave destroyed this thread the last few pages. Grow up. The 12z euro not holding back the shortwave should be a red flag. It's going against it's own bias of holding back energy. Not sure what to make of it, but something has to give. GFS or euro. yea very good point its NOT holding back the energy but the gfs and euro very well could have the wrong idea right now. something just doesnt seem right with some of these outcomes as the models roll out on new data these past few days. LOTS of inconsistency that were not even close to ironing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The weenieshave destroyed this thread the last few pages. Grow up. The 12z euro not holding back the shortwave should be a red flag. It's going against it's own bias of holding back energy. Not sure what to make of it, but something has to give. GFS or euro. Euro has the storm but it phases too late, high pressure is too far northeast into Canada and the system is too warm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Something has to give not ready to buy into the euro just yet. Euro vs every model I have seen so far the only red flag today is the euro going against it's self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 True, but the Euro does have the highest verification scores of any of the models for a reason. Something has to give not ready to buy into the euro just yet. Euro vs every model I have seen so far the only red flag today is the euro going against it's self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 True, but the Euro does have the highest verification scores of any of the models for a reason. You are right it does but every model vs 1 model has failed this year. it has to work out 1 of theses times hopefully this turns out to be it. Also looks as if phase 7 of the MJO does not take place till after the threat now. Phase 6 is not the worst but it is not the best and I guess could get the job done. Should be an interesting week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Euro differs from gfs next week. The Euro has a nice ridge out west and the core of the trough invades the NE US accompanied by cold weather. The GFS was much flatter out west and more zonal. This allows the gfs to gather some moisture in the southern US and as soon as the ridge pumped a bit out west the trough orientation becomes favorable for the LP to take aim on the NE US. The hgts rise ahead of the lp and the trough takes on a more negative tilt. The euro solution begins to flatten a bit in the long run, but the look at H5 has many differences. The EURO would be more dependant on a strong northern stream shortwave to drop into the trough and in response cause the hgts to rise along the coast to get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Potential for serious overrunning on the 12Z models around Day 5 or so. Can explain furthur since no one has responded to your comments? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Can explain furthur since no one has responded to your comments? Rossi There is a tight thermal gradient with a high to the north and upper level system to the south and west inducing SW flow aloft, no guarantee it would not be sleet or freezing rain possibly but with a reinforcing vort dropping out of Canada with additional cold air there is potential for something in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks like the pacific recon mission data will be in tonight's 0z runs. Should be an interesting 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks like the pacific recon mission data will be in tonight's 0z runs. Should be an interesting 0z suite. looks like we "may" get some consistency tonight? we'll see but this upcoming pattern for the next two weeks is exciting and can deliver something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I wasn't siding with the euro or gfs.. Quite frankly, both have things going for its own solution. The seasonal trend has been for the sw cutoffs which would argue for the gfs sake. The euro not holding back energy and kicking it out faster goes against its own bias and is a Red flag to other guidance. At this point, toss a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 looks like we "may" get some consistency tonight? we'll see but this upcoming pattern for the next two weeks is exciting and can deliver something big It may help somewhat, but I don't know if we'll get great agreement on anything til all the crucial disturbances come ashore in the west. at this point there remains a number of possibilities to what could occur, we could see anything from a total rain event to nothing to a crippling blizzard depending on how that system kicks out of the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I wasn't siding with the euro or gfs.. Quite frankly, both have things going for its own solution. The seasonal trend has been for the sw cutoffs which would argue for the gfs sake. The euro not holding back energy and kicking it out faster goes against its own bias and is a Red flag to other guidance. At this point, toss a coin. The GFS solution is what makes me uneasy about this but the euro red flag well that right there complicates this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It may help somewhat, but I don't know if we'll get great agreement on anything til all the crucial disturbances come ashore in the west. at this point there remains a number of possibilities to what could occur, we could see anything from a total rain event to nothing to a crippling blizzard depending on how that system kicks out of the Plains. yea when all the players are on the field we'll start to get some decent consistency then.....or hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 02/23-02/25/08 showing up all over the CIPS analogs...this is combining all the various regions which is what you sort of have to do to make use of them. Interestingly enough the 2/26/08 storm which tracked too far NW for us but gave a big snow event to W and C NY formed out of a semi-similar setup but with less confluence in SE Canada and a more +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 At this point, toss a coin. It doesn't have to be just tossing a coin... heck, when the Pacific data gets fed into the computer models at 00z, they may show another totally different solution not advertised today. The key point here is that we have no idea what is going to happen from day 5 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah but we haven't even since consistency in one model yet run to run. The GFS changes every 6 hours. So forget trying to get consistency between all the models. It could easily take another 5 days for that. yea when all the players are on the field we'll start to get some decent consistency then.....or hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah but we haven't even since consistency in one model yet run to run. The GFS changes every 6 hours. So forget trying to get consistency between all the models. It could easily take another 5 days for that. yea thats why i threw the hope in there for good measure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 To say the PNA ridge is coming for certain is a very bold statment on a 10 day + forecast. It would be...Except that it is not a 10+ day forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It would be...Except that it is not a 10+ day forecast: ok, from a raw index perspective. Sure we will probably get a +PNA, however those maps are awful for delivering cold into the Northeast. The PV is over and NW of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ok, from a raw index perspective. Sure we will probably get a +PNA, however those maps are awful for delivering cold into the Northeast. The PV is over and NW of AK. No its not. Check the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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