Isotherm Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Generally agree. I haven't liked the 3-5th set-up either and think the 10th-15th holds much more potential as the -EPO/Alaskan block begins to evolve and MJO propagates through phase 8 and particularly into phase 1. I posted last night that the MJO doesn't get favorable for enhanced Eastern storminess until phase 1 (phase 8 predominately dry for this time of year) which would put us in the Feb 10-15, or Feb 12th-15th time frame for the potential storm. I think this weekend may be a crap show, followed by a short period of cold/dry weather, then a storm sometime between Feb 10-15th. Of course I'm only speculating, but based upon the pattern evolution wrt the PNA,EPO and tropical forcing, things get much more conducive after Feb 7th-8th. Also, I think many are panicking b/c we'll be heading into the last few weeks of meteorological winter with less than 10" for the season. Well let me just say this - I'm sure everyone will forget most of this miserable winter if we get a big one in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You guys need to relax, the PNA ridge is coming this time for certain. The Feb 3-4th storm threat was never a good one in my opinion because the pattern was still shifting and the cold wasnt really available yet...If the arrival of the true PNA pattern with cold waits until more like the Feb 10th timeframe instead of the 5th, then it actually makes a lot of sense given the MJO progression...HM was also all over this time frame being the 15th-25th, but then pushed it uip a bit because of the long range guidance. It looks like the models have trended a bit towards that original time frame, but don't confuse this for another "delayed and eventually denied" signal that has been so common this winter. We have a lot of support this go around...We'll see about the NAO as great as the alaskan and PNA setup looks for this time frame, the atlantic still leaves a lot to be desired, at least on the op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Also, I think many are panicking b/c we'll be heading into the last few weeks of meteorological winter with less than 10" for the season. Well let me just say this - I'm sure everyone will forget most of this miserable winter if we get a big one in that time frame. You might think so, but I still hear people on this board recalling how dreadful most of 05-06 was, despite the first week of December and big one in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Generally agree. I haven't liked the 3-5th set-up either and think the 10th-15th holds much more potential as the -EPO/Alaskan block begins to evolve and MJO propagates through phase 8 and particularly into phase 1. I posted last night that the MJO doesn't get favorable for enhanced Eastern storminess until phase 1 (phase 8 predominately dry for this time of year) which would put us in the Feb 10-15, or Feb 12th-15th time frame for the potential storm. I think this weekend may be a crap show, followed by a short period of cold/dry weather, then a storm sometime between Feb 10-15th. Of course I'm only speculating, but based upon the pattern evolution wrt the PNA,EPO and tropical forcing, things get much more conducive after Feb 7th-8th. Yup. and don't get me wrong, I'm not guaranteeing snow storms in this pattern. Just muting this notion of the past few pages that the PNA ridge will never come because it keeps getting pushed back on the models.. The pattern will at least give us a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well, I'm expecting something big on President's Day or close to that. There is some truth to the fact that it "likes to snow" on certain days of the year and that is certianly the case for President's Day. February 20th would fit smack dab in the middle of HM's 2/15-2/25 prediction. That's a major, major signal on the GFS as the run comes to an end. Without truncation that would have been some very nice model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You might think so, but I still hear people on this board recalling how dreadful most of 05-06 was, despite the first week of December and big one in February. While most of that winter was bad, if we can get a 12+ event, this winter will go pretty far up the list given NYC has seen plenty of winters without a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well, I'm expecting something big on President's Day or close to that. There is some truth to the fact that it "likes to snow" on certain days of the year and that is certianly the case for President's Day. February 20th would fit smack dab in the middle of HM's 2/15-2/25 prediction. That's a major, major signal on the GFS as the run comes to an end. Without truncation that would have been some very nice model porn. For purely stats: PD I was in 1979. PD II was in 2003. We aren't due for PD II until 2027. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 For purely stats: PD I was in 1979. PD II was in 2003. We aren't due for PD II until 2027. You of course pulled out the two biggest events, but there have been plenty of other smaller storms on that date. I don't have the exact stats unfortunatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You of course pulled out the two biggest events, but there have been plenty of other smaller storms on that date. I don't have the exact stats unfortunatly. I know. I am just messing around. I like the weekend of Feb 10-13 for us; but we shall see as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I know. I am just messing around. I like the weekend of Feb 10-13 for us; but we shall see as always. Those dates have also brought us some very significant storms. I always thought February was the month with the most potential. For one, you have a major global shift occuring as the first signs of Spring start to occur. Let's not forget how much trouble the models were having last year with the Nina. We should expect last minute changes in this pattern rather than getting bent out of shape every time a 7 day threat disolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If the models are wrong about the cutoff, the storm could definitely look good again, so we shouldn't give up. I do think though that the period after has a better chance. Either way, hopefully we get one nice snowstorm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What I can not grasp is why the models (12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM) are cutting the primary low off in the Midwest? I do not see a reason why they would do such a thing given the ridge. Could it be the split-flow pattern? I don't know..I really have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What I can not grasp is why the models (12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM) are cutting the primary low off in the Midwest? I do not see a reason why they would do such a thing given the ridge. Could it be the split-flow pattern? I don't know..I really have no clue. If the euro does basically the same today its time to start worrying but it is telling that both would basically agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What I can not grasp is why the models (12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM) are cutting the primary low off in the Midwest? I do not see a reason why they would do such a thing given the ridge. Could it be the split-flow pattern? I don't know..I really have no clue. It's the ridge out West. Instead of running North south it's sw to ne and it pinches off the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What I can not grasp is why the models (12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM) are cutting the primary low off in the Midwest? I do not see a reason why they would do such a thing given the ridge. Could it be the split-flow pattern? I don't know..I really have no clue. Because it is still summer time across North America honestly thought, this tendency for energy to break off/hold back like that in the central/sw has been occurring allll winter...This is really not a weird solution given that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What I can not grasp is why the models (12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM) are cutting the primary low off in the Midwest? I do not see a reason why they would do such a thing given the ridge. Could it be the split-flow pattern? I don't know..I really have no clue. The west coast ridge bulges to the east over the top of the h5 trough in the Midwest, causing the h5 trough to pinch off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It's the ridge out West. Instead of running North south it's sw to ne and it pinches off the flow. This makes sense. I also see a scenario where the the SE ridge builds too quickly and the primary essentially gets trapped in between both ridge's. The orientation of the ridge from SW to NE is ridiculous. Hopefully we get our true +PNA/-EPO pattern for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Pattern still looks good, what was supposed to happen after 3-5 is still showing up on the gfs, it's not like that's getting pushed back. The PNA starts setting up as early as Day 5-6 out west so I don't know what the big panic is all about. If the pattern doesn't work out and we don't see anymore snow then we'll just have to deal with that too. Not every year is going to produce a KU and a lot of people here just don't understand that. The ingredients have to be perfect around here even for a 4-8 or 6-12 inch event, things usually will not come that easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I wonder if confluence over the Northeast plays a role as well with the cutoff low scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 One thing that jumped out at me is despite very cold surface temps around that time, 850s are much closer to freezing and thicknesses are in the 541-543 range. Almost seems like it is trying to give us a big ole sleet storm..ala 2/14/07..I guess it's just one option on the table with the 'event' still 10+ days away. I know. I am just messing around. I like the weekend of Feb 10-13 for us; but we shall see as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You guys need to relax, the PNA ridge is coming this time for certain. The Feb 3-4th storm threat was never a good one in my opinion because the pattern was still shifting and the cold wasnt really available yet...If the arrival of the true PNA pattern with cold waits until more like the Feb 10th timeframe instead of the 5th, then it actually makes a lot of sense given the MJO progression...HM was also all over this time frame being the 15th-25th, but then pushed it uip a bit because of the long range guidance. It looks like the models have trended a bit towards that original time frame, but don't confuse this for another "delayed and eventually denied" signal that has been so common this winter. We have a lot of support this go around...We'll see about the NAO To say the PNA ridge is coming for certain is a very bold statment on a 10 day + forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Once passed 96 hrs , Trust no model in a split flow pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 we saw this on the models from late december for mid january. SMH. Completely different pattern being advertised by the models now compared with Dec-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 we saw this on the models from late december for mid january. yea but the pattern that were now heading into has alot more potential to deliver this kind of storm as compared to the last few months. i wouldnt follow that forecast as is but its showing what the +pna can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well, I'm expecting something big on President's Day or close to that. There is some truth to the fact that it "likes to snow" on certain days of the year and that is certianly the case for President's Day. February 20th would fit smack dab in the middle of HM's 2/15-2/25 prediction. That's a major, major signal on the GFS as the run comes to an end. Without truncation that would have been some very nice model porn. records for 2/20... NYC's almanac for 2/20. Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation...snowfall...snowcover... 69 in 1930.....16 in 1885.....48 in 1939.....7 in 1950.....3.07" in 1898...12.5" in 1921.....16" in 1979 69 in 1939.....19 in 1896.....47 in 1930.....8 in 1966.....2.68" in 1921.....4.5" in 1911.....12" in 1921 63 in 1943.....22 in 1959.....47 in 1981.....8 in 1959.....2.21" in 1924.....4.2" in 1947.....10" in 2003 62 in 1994.....23 in 1966.....45 in 2002.....9 in 1936.....1.77" in 1981.....2.7" in 1934..... 61 in 1991.....23 in 1936.....44 in 1994.....9 in 1934.............................2.0" in 1946..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I believe this will eventually belly under and exit in the NE . I believe in the PNA and dont think this runs to the lakes . Our problem this year has not been storms running to the lakes We`ve had several benchmark storms this year that were just devoid of cold air ( more my concern , than a run to the lakes ) .If Jan storms were`t running over and over again to the lakes with a pos NAO and a weak PNA im gona bet the ridge axis winds up in the same place for this . And enough troughness shows up by weeks end to bring it under . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I believe this will eventually belly under and exit in the NE . I believe in the PNA and dont think this runs to the lakes . Our problem this year has not been storms running to the lakes We`ve had several benchmark storms this year that were just devoid of cold air ( more my concern , than a run to the lakes ) .If Jan storms were`t running over and over again to the lakes with a pos NAO and a weak PNA im gona bet the ridge axis winds up in the same place for this . And enough troughness shows up by weeks end to bring it under . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not sure of outcome, but the 12z euro keeps the h5 low open through hour 96, compared the the gfs/ggem, which had it closed off by hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You might think so, but I still hear people on this board recalling how dreadful most of 05-06 was, despite the first week of December and big one in February. It was for people west of the Poconos that got squat from the big Feb storm. For me ironically, it's the only other season I saw snow in October (in State College on 10/25/05). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 To say the PNA ridge is coming for certain is a very bold statment on a 10 day + forecast. The PNA ridge builds by Day 5/6 on all models. This is not a 10 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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