NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 its once again delayed and even though its showing up at 168 hours it simply cannot be believed. We need to real ridging into alaska to get the cold air back on this side of the globe and we need substantive changed over the north atlantic. We are now going to be into the second week of February and have yet to see any pattern come to fruition that will produce for us. and this fits the pattern trend of the winter, we have seen this before with a huge PNA ridge only to be weakened and shunted east as we got closer. I for one have no hope of any real pattern change in febuary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I have been following NYC weather for 30 years , Thank god I run an Equity Derivatives desk and not an Energy desk , I have never seen model mayhem to this extent . If i had to trade on a 10 - 20 day forecasts based on this junk , I wouldn`t last very long . Dont know the center runs up the center of the nation in the face a weak block and all that cold air locked into Canada . at the very least i would expect this to eventually belly under as we get closer . but I have to admitt I have zero clue here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It's pretty simple, if the low doesn't cut off over the plains, it will have a chance to dig much further south. Then when that northern stream energy drops in and phases, BOOM. I would not be suprised to see the models flip some more as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Mother of ALL storms incoming at 264 hrs from the Gulf of Mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Blizzard of 1993 at 276 hrs. just a little too far east and another one right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Its becoming obvious that this change in pattern will not deliver any real winter weather and february will turnout just like january http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06150.gif That is not the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 euro will clear things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It's pretty simple, if the low doesn't cut off over the plains, it will have a chance to dig much further south. Then when that northern stream energy drops in and phases, BOOM. I would not be suprised to see the models flip some more as we get closer. Agree - with a major pattern change the models will have no clue until Wednesday. - I am betting it changes completely by then, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am absolutely amazed at some of the replies here; this storm is occuring while we are going a pattern shift (+PNA, weak -NAO, -AO and -EPO) pattern. Next week (after SB), then we can follow the threats more clearer and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 its once again delayed and even though its showing up at 168 hours it simply cannot be believed. We need to see real ridging into alaska to get the cold air back on this side of the globe and we need substantive changes over the north atlantic. We are now going to be into the second week of February and have yet to see any pattern come to fruition that will produce for us. The guidance had been showing the most favorable PNA ridging timing juxtaposed with some help from the Atlantic around 250 hrs a few days ago -- or beginning around Feb 5-6. That period is now beginning around 168 hours which makes sense. The airmass for the storms prior to that was unfavorable to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ya- 264hrs... That has a chance.. There is a better chance of superman coming down from the heavens to rescue this sick country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wow, well I guess that goes to show it would be very hard to cut an LP right into the confluence. So instead the model drives it north and then stalls and sits for days because of the strong confluence. All this while the hgts ahead of it pump and strong waa works into the east. That is atrocious looking. Not much changes afterwards however, the model still brings the cold air and more favorable look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 People said that back in October too. Ya- 264hrs... That has a chance.. There is a better chance of superman coming down from the heavens to rescue this sick country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 and this fits the pattern trend of the winter, we have seen this before with a huge PNA ridge only to be weakened and shunted east as we got closer. I for one have no hope of any real pattern change in febuary. it could be showing 2 feet of snow and you find a way to spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS is showing two major arctic outbreaks in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 the blind leading the blind http://www.accuweath...he-warmth/60902 Please stop posting that in a serious discussion thread. There is a specific thread for non discussion banter such as forecasts by this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ya- 264hrs... That has a chance.. There is a better chance of superman coming down from the heavens to rescue this sick country... Careful, man...there are lots of things going for a potential significant storm around that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ckassic Nina Model Chaos this season. The fast flow and the quick nature is causing a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The GFS has been showing major arctic outbreaks in the long range since early December. GFS is showing two major arctic outbreaks in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 it could be showing 2 feet of snow and you find a way to spin it. im gonna take the high road here and say that the models are having too hard of time with this new pattern regime and things are not going to be remotely clarified until atleast wednesday. alot of living and dying with the models, especially the gfs which as we know can be drunk, high, stupid whatever with every run. we just gotta get some better sampling and consistency before saying something. just sit back and CHILLLLLL lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 When you have such a big pattern shift in progress, it's probably not even worth looking past day 5. It wouldn't take much to flip things back around to a more favorable solution. I don't understand all of the "Winter is Over" and "Same old ****, different run" comments at all. The lone fact that run to run consistency has been so poor is a good enough reason to believe that nothing is off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The cause of next week's issue on the GFS is a cutoff low. Just crap luck. All the other things are moving into place at that time, so it's not a delayed pattern change..just crap luck from an ULL causing the cold to be deflected to the northeast. The cutoff low does make sense to a point, but clearly the position of this low is of big importance to us. Either way, eventually it gets flushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Careful, man...there are lots of things going for a potential significant storm around that time period. I jumped the gun, Earthlight.. Apologize for my idiotic comment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The DT storm has been showing up beautifuly on the last few runs of the GFS. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The cause of next week's issue on the GFS is a cutoff low. Just crap luck. All the other things are moving into place at that time, so it's not a delayed pattern change..just crap luck from an ULL causing the cold to be deflected to the northeast. The cutoff low does make sense to a point, but clearly the position of this low is of big importance to us. Either way, eventually it gets flushed out. That cut off low is an odd solution, but it was also on the 00z Euro/00z CMC so we have to weigh that as a distinct possability. If the low doesn't cut off, we get a solution similar to the 00z NOAGPS aka Miller B over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You guys need to relax, the PNA ridge is coming this time for certain. The Feb 3-4th storm threat was never a good one in my opinion because the pattern was still shifting and the cold wasnt really available yet...If the arrival of the true PNA pattern with cold waits until more like the Feb 10th timeframe instead of the 5th, then it actually makes a lot of sense given the MJO progression...HM was also all over this time frame being the 15th-25th, but then pushed it uip a bit because of the long range guidance. It looks like the models have trended a bit towards that original time frame, but don't confuse this for another "delayed and eventually denied" signal that has been so common this winter. We have a lot of support this go around...We'll see about the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The DT storm has been showing up beautifuly on the last few runs of the GFS. Love it. That has a chance because the pattern will be fully favorable for us by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z GGEM looks very similar to the GFS. Cutoffs the 500mb low and spins it for days as the primary low cuts towards the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You guys need to relax, the PNA ridge is coming this time for certain. The Feb 3-4th storm threat was never a good one in my opinion because the pattern was still shifting and the cold wasnt really available yet...If the arrival of the true PNA pattern with cold waits until more like the Feb 10th timeframe instead of the 5th, then it actually makes a lot of sense given the MJO progression...HM was also all over this time frame being the 15th-25th, but then pushed it uip a bit because of the long range guidance. It looks like the models have trended a bit towards that original time frame, but don't confuse this for another "delayed and eventually denied" signal that has been so common this winter. We have a lot of support this go around...We'll see about the NAO NAO is forecasted to go weakly negative according to the GFS ENS and ECMWF ENS (west based also). But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You guys need to relax, the PNA ridge is coming this time for certain. The Feb 3-4th storm threat was never a good one in my opinion because the pattern was still shifting and the cold wasnt really available yet...If the arrival of the true PNA pattern with cold waits until more like the Feb 10th timeframe instead of the 5th, then it actually makes a lot of sense given the MJO progression...HM was also all over this time frame being the 15th-25th, but then pushed it uip a bit because of the long range guidance. It looks like the models have trended a bit towards that original time frame, but don't confuse this for another "delayed and eventually denied" signal that has been so common this winter. We have a lot of support this go around...We'll see about the NAO Generally agree. I haven't liked the 3-5th set-up either and think the 10th-15th holds much more potential as the -EPO/Alaskan block begins to evolve and MJO propagates through phase 8 and particularly into phase 1. I posted last night that the MJO doesn't get favorable for enhanced Eastern storminess until phase 1 (phase 8 predominately dry for this time of year) which would put us in the Feb 10-15, or Feb 12th-15th time frame for the potential storm. I think this weekend may be a crap show, followed by a short period of cold/dry weather, then a storm sometime between Feb 10-15th. Of course I'm only speculating, but based upon the pattern evolution wrt the PNA,EPO and tropical forcing, things get much more conducive after Feb 7th-8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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