CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 On the map Trials posted, there are other great signals as well such as a perfectly placed strengthening High pressure, along with a nice blocking 50/50 low. This looks very good, could be the best threat all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 This is the best the gfs has looked this winter, some realistic potential here, instead of that fantasy stuff. Massive and sustained PNA ridge really doing the dirty work here, it even creates a transient block on the gfs long range that not surprisingly translates to a miller B storm around Day 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 On the map Trials posted, there are other great signals as well such as a perfectly placed strengthening High pressure, along with a nice blocking 50/50 low. This looks very good, could be the best threat all year Would like stronger heights west of the 50/50, but a lot better than what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It also shows that there are other ways to get a big snow event than having major blocking. It's obviously more difficult without the -NAO but a perfectly timed event could give us a big storm. One more crappy week to go through and then we talk potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 GEFS GGEM has a rain event. Look at the big PNA ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 GGEM is reading into the lack of blocking going on, therefore it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Impressive signal from an ensemble product. Almost all of them have the storm one way or another. A couple of them would make everyone happy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Impressive signal from an ensemble product. Almost all of them have the storm one way or another. A couple of them would make everyone happy: Broken link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The GFS has a favorable setup because it is important to note that it establishes some resemblance of blocking upstream and some higher hgts over the top. This is crucial because it allows the flow to slow and the shortwave to amplify. It also keeps the confluence/HP in place. These elements scream major storm and I would take that setup any day of the week because it is explosive and can produce. I think the GGEM lacks some of these features and you get a warmer/inland cutting low. With the gfs evolution of the pattern at H5 I don't think that would be possible. The ridge axis/+PNA is also in a more favorable position on the GFS then the GGEM. Regardless, the EURO and GFS have been screaming potential for late next week. Hopefully all the elements can come together. The GFS is nice because you get the full package, not just reliant on a +PNA ridge out west. And even after this event some of the signals are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 looks pretty promising to me too. The GFS always shears out these pieces of energy in the long range.. It is a little dicey north and east of us.. certainly need the height field to build north and east to give it a chance to slow down, go negative, and perhaps close off at 500 mb... the ridge is a bit too east for comfort, but in a way, it's got that 12/26/10'ish feel with energy looking to drive straight down the central U.S. It's as good as you can hope for in this crappy winter, this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Impressive signal from an ensemble product. Almost all of them have the storm one way or another. A couple of them would make everyone happy: not thrilled with them at 850, but whatever, its a ways away. Its going to be an issue however having a polar, not arctic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Euro has a strengthening surface low over West Virginia at 156...looks pretty warm. Would need to kick east immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 996mb near the South-Central NJ Coast at 168. Looks a little warm for snow. 850's near 0 in the city and surface temperatures in the upper 30's. Colder inland. Big hit from N NJ through SE NY/CT into SNE as well as NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Looks like we go back to snow at 174. SNE gets absolutely destroyed. Looks like 992mb just E of Block Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow, it almost stalls east of the Cape at 180. 998mb..CCB for all of Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If it develops 6 hours earlier, or maybe even just a hair south and east...it's a significant storm from NYC to Boston with probably significant snowfall amounts. 174 hours out though..so I would take it with a grain of salt..and that's being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Seems like a marginal solution at best, it really needs to be timed perfectly, somewhere in between the gfs and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If it develops 6 hours earlier, or maybe even just a hair south and east...it's a significant storm from NYC to Boston with probably significant snowfall amounts. 174 hours out though..so I would take it with a grain of salt..and that's being generous. We've seen a few bombs from the Euro that never came to fruition, especially in this time range. That grain of salt would have to be enormous at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 We've seen a few bombs from the Euro that never came to fruition, especially in this time range. That grain of salt would have to be enormous at this point in time. The difference here is that for the 1st time all season every single model, down to even the JMA, has this powerful vort and a massive PNA ridge. Right now, chances of a large storm are increasing. But precip type for south of SNE looks like rain at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The difference here is that for the 1st time all season every single model, down to even the JMA, has this powerful vort and a massive PNA ridge. Right now, chances of a large storm are increasing. But precip type for south of SNE looks like rain at the moment. Wholesale lack of cold air will continue to be the problem going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 We've seen a few bombs from the Euro that never came to fruition, especially in this time range. That grain of salt would have to be enormous at this point in time. Yea the Euro has thrown out so many fantasy weenie solutions this winter. Whats the Brazilian showing? I hear it is verfiying better than the Euro this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wholesale lack of cold air will continue to be the problem going forward. Agreed. We need perfect timing. Euro almost had what we need to happen. Like earthlight said, the bombing out needed to occur 6 hours earlier and a little further east and the euro would've shown a NYC to Boston CCB hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 When you get a surface low bombing out like the Euro is hinting at, all bets are off. We saw this in October. So despite the lack of antecedent cold air we could get hammered. But the phase would need to occur a little earlier if the Euro were reality. We have a long week ahead and I'm sure all the guidance will offer a wide variety of solutions. The point is this is not a terrible set up and that is saying a lot given the first two months of this wretched winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 When you get a surface low bombing out like the Euro is hinting at, all bets are off. We saw this in October. So despite the lack of antecedent cold air we could get hammered. But the phase would need to occur a little earlier if the Euro were reality. We have a long week ahead and I'm sure all the guidance will offer a wide variety of solutions. The point is this is not a terrible set up and that is saying a lot given the first two months of this wretched winter. Excellent post...what's the NAO look like right around that time? Is there a weak high or anything in SE Canada that could trend stronger? all stuff to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Excellent post...what's the NAO look like right around that time? Is there a weak high or anything in SE Canada that could trend stronger? all stuff to watch... There is a 1020mb high about 1,000 miles north of NYC...a high isn't going to save this storm most likely...its going to have to track perfectly unless something drastically changes synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 There is a 1020mb high about 1,000 miles north of NYC...a high isn't going to save this storm most likely...its going to have to track perfectly unless something drastically changes synoptically. 1020 mb is roughly the same pressure as the storm that gave us snow last week I think synoptically this one has a "chance" for the lack of a better word. The Euro really tried to transfer this thing to the coast. Its not terribly far off for most of us. But without any blocking you always have to proceed with caution. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 There is a 1020mb high about 1,000 miles north of NYC...a high isn't going to save this storm most likely...its going to have to track perfectly unless something drastically changes synoptically. agree 100%. There is no blocking and the antecedent airmass is not good. This is going to be a sne/cne storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 1020 mb is roughly the same pressure as the storm that gave us snow last week I think synoptically this one has a "chance" for the lack of a better word. The Euro really tried to transfer this thing to the coast. Its not terribly far off for most of us. But without any blocking you always have to proceed with caution. We will see. Eh, wake me up on Monday if its still there. I'm only a bit pessimistic because the timing has to perfect...there is pretty bad antecedent cold giving even less margin for error than a normal air mass without blocking. I t could definitely work out, but there's probably way more ways it doesn't. If that little weakness in the flow east of Hudson bay gets better, that could help some, but most of it is going to just have to be via the shortwave being the perfect strength and the kicker behind it not letting it get too amped up to our west...and that will be somewhat dependent on the PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 agree 100%. There is no blocking and the antecedent airmass is not good. This is going to be a sne/cne storm. Clearly.....my A/C is getting installed this weekend for the impending heatwave next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Clearly.....my A/C is getting installed this weekend for the impending heatwave next week just dont like bowling balls with no block and a crappy airmass. Can't remember one that worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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