ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm just glad the models are still agreeing on a big time PNA ridge through the medium term. That's one thing that hasn't changed. I would be much more concerned if they were waffling on that. Post Feb 5th...that has always been the big period for the M.A...esp NYC since you can cash in on Miller Bs too. Pre-Feb 5th has always been ugly...might work out, but a total long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 just for kicks, the cutoff is still in the southern plains at hr192, and the PV is diving south from canada. Im about to cancel my subscription to this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Post Feb 5th...that has always been the big period for the M.A...esp NYC since you can cash in on Miller Bs too. Pre-Feb 5th has always been ugly...might work out, but a total long shot. Agree. The GFS super ensemble s were specifically encouraging today...I believe they were centered around February 8th. There were some really big Miller B patterns showing up in there. I think that may eventually be where we head -- despite the +PNA arguing for bigger amplification on the east coast in relation to something more Miller A related. The orientation of the PV on most ensemble means has remained consistent with a pattern that could give us some decent Miller B threats. All of this is just "educated speculation" I guess you could say...since we're speaking generally about smoothed ensemble means which mute the inconsistency of the OP runs...but the pattern still remains generally unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 just for kicks, the cutoff is still in the southern plains at hr192, and the PV is diving south from canada. Im about to cancel my subscription to this model Don't worry, its about to phase with the Polar Vortex. Should make for some good entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Man the Euro is pretty funny to look at in the long range. It has low pressures deepening in the Central Pacific south of Californias latitude/north of Hawaii that keep driving up ridging on the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 And then there was this. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/f156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 And then there was this. http://www.meteo.psu...APS_0z/f156.gif atown should be banned for not posting this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 06Z GFS is hilarious. Its so slow to eject the system out of the southern Plains that we lose our arctic air mass....moderate for a day or two...and nearly have another new cold air mass in place when the storm is finally off the East Coast...not sure I have ever seen that happen where you can miss one chance and the storm takes so long to kick out you have fresh cold air approaching again when it finally does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 looks like the models may not give us any indication on our storm chances and pattern change until later this week. the model swinging is absolutely incredible and cant latch onto any kind of consistency, ive never seen it like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 looks like the models may not give us any indication on our storm chances and pattern change until later this week. the model swinging is absolutely incredible and cant latch onto any kind of consistency, ive never seen it like this before. Yeah, split flow patterns are a big challenge for the models especially with the amplification out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This is a good read http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=711&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 AO holding just as negative as yesterday - good signal http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 fuglyyyy lol even the euro cant latch onto a general idea. The models saw the amplification ok but struggled with the details of the storms in the split flow. I am not that big a fan of using the OP runs much past 120 hrs for individual storm details. Even then, we often need to get to within 60-72 hrs to refine the forecast a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 My take on this whole model situation right now is that the models may be missing key information that they had on the previous runs. Possibly this data went over a data sparse region of the Pacific Ocean or Siberia or something like that. I imagine that the models will change quite considerably again when this data is sampled properly again, very possibly coming to nearly the same solutions that we saw previously. We have seen this many times before and I am guessing this is the case again. Of course, it could be that the models have actually gotten better information now and are coming to a new conclusion, but it seems that many times we lose storms in this time frame, only for them to come back within a day or two when data is better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 AO holding just as negative as yesterday - good signal http://www.cpc.ncep....x/ao_index.html AO hasnt been the problem at all recently, its the alaskan vortex and crappy north atlantic. Also, like all those index charts, need to look at 500mb to verify. For the first chunk of that period, the AO was negative but mostly with the best heights on the other side of the globe which did bleed over to our side and did cause the index to fall but the PV was firmly in place. The PV is gone now over the pole as we await changes over alaska and the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 My take on this whole model situation right now is that the models may be missing key information that they had on the previous runs. Possibly this data went over a data sparse region of the Pacific Ocean or Siberia or something like that. I imagine that the models will change quite considerably again when this data is sampled properly again, very possibly coming to nearly the same solutions that we saw previously. We have seen this many times before and I am guessing this is the case again. Of course, it could be that the models have actually gotten better information now and are coming to a new conclusion, but it seems that many times we lose storms in this time frame, only for them to come back within a day or two when data is better sampled. Thats why they are sending out an additional recon to the pacific early this week to try and get a better handle on this situation - also HPC morning progged maps at least doesn't show the storm(s) hugging the coast - in this setup greater chance of precip the further south you go http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS has much more energy in the northern stream this time. Still looks horrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS has much more energy in the northern stream this time. It closed off the H5 energy at hour 84 and its still closed off at hour 120. Primary is cutting west of the lakes this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Spinning up a surface low now in the Tennessee Valley at 141 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Spinning up a surface low now in the Tennessee Valley at 141 hrs. its a hideous pattern and the east coast is already baked. There is no shot at any storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 An awful GFS run. Not only does it kill the storm but this run would also torch the eastern conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It is keeping most of the energy in the northern stream this time and is pumping the warmth ahead of it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Spinning up a surface low now in the Tennessee Valley at 141 hrs. Oh, and the surface low is over Chicago, its no where near the tennessee valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It is keeping most of the energy in the northern stream this time and is pumping the warmth ahead of it for us. The H5 low closes off and stays closed for 2 days. That pumps the se ridge as it sits and spins in the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 No real PNA ridge on this run of GFS. Like I said last night, if we can't get that going the whole country is a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Oh, and the surface low is over Chicago, its no where near the tennessee valley. translates to another warm up and rain..that's all the GFS shows..another tease this winter..folks this winter is, what it is..I was even starting to get excited..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 No real PNA ridge on this run of GFS, like I said last night, if we can't get that going, whole country is a torch. its once again delayed and even though its showing up at 168 hours it simply cannot be believed. We need to see real ridging into alaska to get the cold air back on this side of the globe and we need substantive changes over the north atlantic. We are now going to be into the second week of February and have yet to see any pattern come to fruition that will produce for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 So we've gone from Feb 3-5 being a good sign to now perhaps the 8-15? We're running on fumes boys... Perhaps a Feb 2006 type of situation pops up, but if this crap continues, bring on spring! NEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Its becoming obvious that this change in pattern will not deliver any real winter weather and february will turnout just like january http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 We can't have this low cutting off at 500mb over the Midwest/Rockies. There is too much room for it to go north. Whatever blocking there is, is displaced too far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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