February Winter Storm Prospects

[NEG NAO]

I call it as I see it. If the features modeled at H5 are indeed correct then I would not worry about what solution each model has. With resemblance of blocking, a strong ridge out west, and most important a very nice area of confluence one would have to be happy. IMO any energy that would eject with that pattern might push north into the confluence but would have to transfer to the coast. It defies logic for it to continue to cut right into the block. We have seen this modeled in the past with similar setups/storms. I would take that setup anyday. With those features IF and only IF they are real, I would think a large overrunning event followed by secondary development would deliver good snows to the NYC metro area. Models always struggle with these setups, but as we have seen in the past they can be very beneficial for us. Some of you might know some similar setups/analogs I am thinking of.

Very doubtful the secondary from an ohio valley primary would develop inland in north carolina and travel inland up the coast the usual scenerio is to develop off hatteras or the VA capes and track north northeast off shore

[SnoSki14]

Until there is some run to run consistency, then any solution the gfs spits out should be taken very lightly. It does look like something's gonna happen but at this point, there's nearly 0% certainty about what may happen. The problem will continue to be that the storm may occur while the pattern is setting up to becoming very favorable instead of all the pieces already being in play, which will make it difficult for us to get a snow event.

[Edge Weather]

This run of the GFS is acutlaly quite similar to today's runs of both the Euro and the Canadian, considering that it is still 7 days away.

Until there is some run to run consistency, then any solution the gfs spits out should be taken very lightly. It does look like something's gonna happen but at this point, there's nearly 0% certainty about what may happen. The problem will continue to be that the storm may occur while the pattern is setting up to becoming very favorable instead of all the pieces already being in play, which will make it difficult for us to get a snow event.

[Edge Weather]

Excellent post. I could not agree with you more.

I call it as I see it. If the features modeled at H5 are indeed correct then I would not worry about what solution each model has. With resemblance of blocking, a strong ridge out west, and most important a very nice area of confluence one would have to be happy. IMO any energy that would eject with that pattern might push north into the confluence but would have to transfer to the coast. It defies logic for it to continue to cut right into the block. We have seen this modeled in the past with similar setups/storms. I would take that setup anyday. With those features IF and only IF they are real, I would think a large overrunning event followed by secondary development would deliver good snows to the NYC metro area. Models always struggle with these setups, but as we have seen in the past they can be very beneficial for us. Some of you might know some similar setups/analogs I am thinking of.

[mattinpa]

This run of the GFS is acutlaly quite similar to today's runs of both the Euro and the Canadian, considering that it is still 7 days away.

Did they have it cut inland like the GFS or not?

[SnoSki14]

Still plenty of time for things to change, hopefully the highs to the north trend stronger, therefore bringing down colder air and making the low less likely to cut. A better 50/50 would help too.

[Edge Weather]

Yes, both the Canadian and the Euro did. The Canadian was stronger with the cut though. They all look very similar to the GFS in this fashion. The Canadian was the strongest of the cutters, then the GFS, then the Euro.

Did they have it cut inland like the GFS or not?

[Snow_Miser]

96 is often an overused analog for alot of big storms, were not gonna see widespread 2'+ snowfall amounts from philly to boston. its a big storm but i-95 as it sits now looks to be on the rain/snow line

The 12z GFS did not even have a storm, so looking at specifics is pretty pointless at this stage. Once some consistency starts to get established with the models, should we start to look at where the rain/snow line should be.

Definitely a LOT of potential in this timeframe. It will be interesting to see the GEFS Individual ENS when they come out on Raleigh WX.

[CooL]

The gfs is flopping so much its hard to take the inland scenario seriously, or anything it even says seriously.

Seeing that ridge out west, the cold high pressure just north of the system, and a blocking 50/50 low is a good enough signal for us at this point in time. Should be a fun week

[blizzardof09]

The 12z GFS did not even have a storm, so looking at specifics is pretty pointless at this stage. Once some consistency starts to get established with the models, should we start to look at where the rain/snow line should be.

Definitely a LOT of potential in this timeframe. It will be interesting to see the GEFS Individual ENS when they come out on Raleigh WX.

agree 100% a TON of potential and consistency within the models within the next several days is going to be crucial in determining what this storm is going to do. going into february is gonna be fun for the east coast and the way the models have portrayed the upcoming weeks a well timed shortwave with a cold air source and we'll be in business.

[Guest Patrick]

Exactly the point... yet it is brought up or insinuated everytime we see an overrunning potential followed by a coastal.

That sort of potential isn't on the table until we get to the end of the period you highlighted in your post. With a moderate PNA and a favorable Atlantic, wide open gulf and blocking galore, we could do it, but doubful in a nina like this.

There is no comparison between the modeled system and the blizzard of 96

[SnoSki14]

I know the gfs sometimes holds on to the primary too long so that might explain its inland secondary, but yeah until there is some kind of defined, consistent threat, it's pointless to over analyze one run.

[blizzardof09]

The gfs is flopping so much its hard to take the inland scenario seriously, or anything it even says seriously.

Seeing that ridge out west, the cold high pressure just north of the system, and a blocking 50/50 low is a good enough signal for us at this point in time. Should be a fun week

usually when you got those big three there is a good shot of something big coming out of it. strength is the factor though but the gfs does always have a hard time holding onto a solution or pull something weird on one if its run. you worded it to perfection, A FUN WEEK! dont let the models swing your moods until we get within 48-72 hours or until consistency is realized

[SnoSki14]

Exactly the point... yet it is brought up or insinuated everytime we see an overrunning potential followed by a coastal.

That sort of potential isn't on the table until we get to the end of the period you highlighted in your post. With a moderate PNA and a favorable Atlantic, wide open gulf and blocking galore, we could do it, but doubful in a nina like this.

Boxing day and Jan 26-27 happened last winter in a Nina. Obviously the major blocking played the main role, but it just goes to shows that if the factors are in play, then the state of the ENSO does not determine whether or not the event will occur.

[blizzardof09]

I know the gfs sometimes holds on to the primary too long so that might explain its inland secondary, but yeah until there is some kind of defined, consistent threat, it's pointless to over analyze one run.

yea and the euro also has its biases as does every model 150+ hours out. we gotta give it a few days before we can start looking at details if not later.

[bmc10]

I was never comparing this storm to 96. My only point is that we will not see a lp cut right into the center of the confluence, just won't happen. The flow is progressive and there is a strong ridge out west, would be very surprised if this storm did not progress eastward or transfer energy quicker to secondary development off the coast. Nice hp anchored in by the first low which bombs with some higher hgts over the top. I just don't buy a cutter in that setup, would need to see some features and h5 look different before I would consider that a possibility. It goes against basic meteorology and as I said past setups have shown how models can struggle in these scenarios.

[bmc10]

Boxing day and Jan 26-27 happened last winter in a Nina. Obviously the major blocking played the main role, but it just goes to shows that if the factors are in play, then the state of the ENSO does not determine whether or not the event will occur.

There was no blocking for Jan 26 in fact the setup was kind of putrid.

[Snow_Miser]

agree 100% a TON of potential and consistency within the models within the next several days is going to be crucial in determining what this storm is going to do. going into february is gonna be fun for the east coast and the way the models have portrayed the upcoming weeks a well timed shortwave with a cold air source and we'll be in business.

The 00z runs that get new data should be REALLY interesting, to see what they do with this storm. The next couple weeks at least look excellent for chances of cold/snow for the area.

[blizzardof09]

I was never comparing this storm to 96. My only point is that we will not see a lp cut right into the center of the confluence, just won't happen. The flow is progressive and there is a strong ridge out west, would be very surprised if this storm did not progress eastward or transfer energy quicker to secondary development off the coast. Nice hp anchored in by the first low which bombs with some higher hgts over the top. I just don't buy a cutter in that setup, would need to see some features and h5 look different before I would consider that a possibility. It goes against basic meteorology and as I said past setups have shown how models can struggle in these scenarios.

absolutely right man. when was the last time a LP ran into confluence.its a secondary development as you said quicker. the gfs is known to come up with these bogus simple meteorological errors.

[SnowGoose69]

96 is often an overused analog for alot of big storms, were not gonna see widespread 2'+ snowfall amounts from philly to boston. its a big storm but i-95 as it sits now looks to be on the rain/snow line

The biggest issue I see is that in 1996 and many other similar scenarios with that bowling ball type upper low forming in the TN Valley is the ridge out west in this case is amplifying and not progressive, you look at the setup from the 1996 and the western ridge is moving East...the problem here is we are going from a +NAO into a -NAO and not the other way around, that ridge not moving east could be enough to cause this storm to be too far west for us. Its a case where badly timed confluence development could hurt us, but at the same time we could see a massive front end blast of snow if the high is there.

[TheTrials]

should be an automatic month ban anytime someone brings up 96. Its a 100 year storm.

[CooL]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

long way to go, people

[bmc10]

Hey regardless of what happens with this next threat, the pattern looks great following. After what we have seen this winter, that is exciting. Could be very fun times ahead and a much more winter like period.

[SnowGoose69]

should be an automatic month ban anytime someone brings up 96. Its a 100 year storm.

The bowling ball setup out to the west is often what reminds alot of people of it but alot of the bigger storms for us have that sort of classic look 24 hours before, 12/5-6/03 is one that did as well. This event though definitely shows some similarities with that arching banana type high and the bowling ball setup...not likely to be a 2 foot storm as of now though.

[earthlight]

GFS Ensemble mean now showing rather noticeable positive height anomalies both on the west coast into British Columbia and Western Canada..as well as over Greenland and working towards Baffin Island..beginning Day 7 and continuing through the end of the model run.

[TheTrials]

this is not a good look which is why the individual members look bad tonight.

[blizzardof09]

GFS Ensemble mean now showing rather noticeable positive height anomalies both on the west coast into British Columbia and Western Canada..as well as over Greenland and working towards Baffin Island..beginning Day 7 and continuing through the end of the model run.

that sounds good to me john. lets finish this winter off with a bang.

[earthlight]

this is not a good look which is why the individual members look bad tonight.

Like I said a few days ago that ridge sagging to the east is not favorable for any time of winter storm around here. Its not like the ridge is positioned to the east -- that would be fine -- if it had a better S-N component to its axis. But it actually de-amplifies eastward and that is no good.

Nevertheless the signals beginning at the end of this coming week are huge...and the GFS ensemble mean is screaming for both a +PNA ridge extending into Yukon and a pronounced Greenland Block.

Start your engines

[TheTrials]

Like I said a few days ago that ridge sagging to the east is not favorable for any time of winter storm around here. Its not like the ridge is positioned to the east -- that would be fine -- if it had a better S-N component to its axis. But it actually de-amplifies eastward and that is no good.

Nevertheless the signals beginning at the end of this coming week are huge...and the GFS ensemble mean is screaming for both a +PNA ridge extending into Yukon and a pronounced Greenland Block.

Start your engines

the greeland height anomolies are very east based. Its still more of a north atlantic ridge, by no means a classic block scenario, which is why you see so much of the blues go off the se coast and not be centered over th ohio valley into the northeast.

[earthlight]

the greeland height anomolies are very east based. Its still more of a north atlantic ridge, by no means a classic block scenario, which is why you see so much of the blues go off the se coast and not be centered over th ohio valley into the northeast.

It's not really east based by definition. An east based -NAO would have the ridge axis and area of positive height anomalies farther north. The ridge axis extends into the Davis Straight and there are +18 to +24dm above normal height anomalies over Greenland...not the Northwest Atlantic. The positive height anomalies extend all the way over the Pole. It may not be a cutoff block like we've seen the past two years...but don't really expect that, ever. Those are incredibly rare.

But it's the 18z GFS height anomalies anyway.