Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The JMA is a compromise between the Euro and the GFS and sounds much like the EC Mean. It looks like mostly snow for the NW burbs and NYC is on the dividing line for the Thursday into Friday storm. JMA at 120 hrs. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif JMA 850mb at 120 hrs. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_850_GPHTMPRH_120HR.gif JMA at 144 hrs. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif JMA 850mb at 144 hrs. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_850_GPHTMPRH_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The JMA is a compromise between the Euro and the GFS and sounds much like the EC Mean. It looks like mostly snow for the NW burbs and NYC is on the dividing line for the Thursday into Friday storm. Looks like a rain to snow type deal for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The run to run continuity even at 84 hours is really appauling on most of the guidance right now. I'd take every solution with a grain of salt to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS continues to miss us to the south with the Thursday into Friday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 yeah the gfs is no longer holding that cutoff in the SW. Who knows where this run is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The 18z GFS at hour 99 on NCEP looks like it's trying to pop a weak coastal for the first storm. Not sure how far north the precipitation eventually gets. EDIT: This is about as far north as the GFS gets with the first storm, but as John (earthlight) mentioned, each run has had terrible consistency with this timeframe and is probably going to change the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 18 GFS is ejecting the energy from the southwest this time and not leaving it behind. Should be an interesting run for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 1012 mb over Arkansas at 123 hrs. Looking very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Now a major upper level system over the Central US at 120 hrs that looks like it's trying to cut off. My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 massive 1032mb high smothering the system up north. Storm taking shape in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This run is actually quite similar to the Canadian, but not as strong with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A bowling ball headed toward a 1036mb high over Canada and a 50/50 low in place. This should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Let's see if it takes it as far North as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re-development trying to take place over the southern Appalachians at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 150 lp in southwestern ohio 1035 high holding its own north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Compare 138 hours at 12z and 132 hours at 18z. The differences at 500 mb and at the surface are really comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I doubt it with that 50/50 in place This is going to cut west of us when whatever blocking gives way and the cold high follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lol. Snow through 165 hours. We change over between 165 and 168. Lots of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 150 lp in southwestern ohio 1035 high holding its own north of us 156 looks like a secondary developing in NC already snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Typically not a good upper air setup for our area http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It gets a little close to us and a little warm, but what a beautiful run otherwise. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 162 deepining lp in VA 850 right over nyc metro - snow will change to rain with this set up 168 996 lp in south jersey 850 north of us heavy rain here NYC metro 174 993 low just off long island still rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Typically not a good upper air setup for our area http://www.meteo.psu...VN_18z/f150.gif yuck at that setup. We all know that this is bonus snow if we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 All, things considered, not bad consensus for a storm that is still 7 days away. The Euro, GFS and Canadian are all pretty much in the same general locations with surface low and show somewhat similar evolutions. Just need that high to not give way so much over southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I call it as I see it. If the features modeled at H5 are indeed correct then I would not worry about what solution each model has. With resemblance of blocking, a strong ridge out west, and most important a very nice area of confluence one would have to be happy. IMO any energy that would eject with that pattern might push north into the confluence but would have to transfer to the coast. It defies logic for it to continue to cut right into the block. We have seen this modeled in the past with similar setups/storms. I would take that setup anyday. With those features IF and only IF they are real, I would think a large overrunning event followed by secondary development would deliver good snows to the NYC metro area. Models always struggle with these setups, but as we have seen in the past they can be very beneficial for us. Some of you might know some similar setups/analogs I am thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 What a precip maker: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Still a fluid situation. Problem on this run is the low cut too much over us rather than in a NE direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 yuck at that setup. We all know that this is bonus snow if we get it. the gfs has had a horrible time handling this system, but the overall look with the ridge and the very strong high looks threatening. 2 days ago we were worried about marginal cold and a positively tilted trough. Still many many changes to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Whoever this stays all snow for ( probably somewhere between the m/d line and c ny state to c ne ) looks to be a very big storm. This seems like a very long duration and slow moving system. You have a lot of energy and moisture blocked and flanked by highs to the north. This slow/ long Duration has been consistent on almost all models and all runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Tropical storm giving us snow at 312 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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