February Winter Storm Prospects

[TheTrials]

At 150 hours surface low may be trying to re-form over the SE in response to the confluence but we need it to happen now or we are gonna get a warmer/wetter solution

Good CAD showing up.

[TheTrials]

big time phase occuring at 156. Not sure we are gonna be able to hold on but that 50/50 is still holding so we may be ok.

nail biter here.

[TheTrials]

looks pretty disorganized at 162, with a primary over ohio valley and a reflection off the coast.

A lot of H5 energy that isn't quite coming together.

Gets better at 168 but still messy

we are cold enough for snow at this point.

[Isotherm]

Agreed with the above stuff Tom. I think we have a chance for something wintry over the next week -- but I also think this pattern has the chance of producing a KU if it plays out as advertised by the global ensembles. In that case, the potential would have the best chance of being realized beginning February 8th and continuing through the next week or so.

Agreed John. Assuming it plays out as depicted, there's heightened potential for something bigger.

[earthlight]

Well, it's trying to give us a big storm I can tell you guys that much. Big time phase of a northern stream shortwave that comes over the top of the ridge. But it's highly disorganized...so we get some light snow and that's about it. 850mb warm punch working north through the MA.

[mattinpa]

looks pretty disorganized at 162, with a primary over ohio valley and a reflection off the coast.

A lot of H5 energy that isn't quite coming together.

Gets better at 168 but still messy

we are cold enough for snow at this point.

As people have said - that seems to be the time now that we should be watching. That or a little after.

[TheTrials]

just takes too long to come together and produces light snow to rain to flurries on the euro.

[mattinpa]

Here's a visual of hour 168. Miller-B=ish:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

[TheTrials]

and just to continue its year long trend of being dr yes, its about to bring the day after tomorrow into the conus at 204 hours as a full latitude trough over takes the east.

[bmc10]

First off, the differences with lead wave amongst all the models is crazy. Secondly, IMO the EURO is close to producing something major next weekend. Talk about a huge overrunning event evolving into a coastal as the primary transfers as a result of the confluence. Where have we seen this much disorganization with the models regarding an event? Where have we seen this type of setup before? Ehhhh, not even going to mention it.

[bmc10]

And then the euro goes into a mega freeze. WOW lol

[TheTrials]

Here's a visual of hour 168. Miller-B=ish:

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif

actually, it originates over the gulf around 130 hours, gets up into the tennessee valley, and redevelops

its more Miller C which is hybrid A/B

[CooL]

the key here is that the euro doesn't rot the southern stream cutoff in the southwest. After that ejects, honestly, who knows what will happen. The euro is a discombobulated mess at H5 but it definitely looks threatening with the pulsating ridge out west and tons of energy

[TheTrials]

at 138 it looks like its going to be a nice storm, but it just can't get going with the H5 features. At least, as CooL says, its not rotting the thing over the SW, and its prone to do that, so big plus there.

[bmc10]

I think the large ridge out west on the euro has a much more favorable alignment also. This is a point earthlight has been harping.

[bmc10]

We better get some snow, because the euro freezes us all, and that would be brutal without some snow on the ground.

[Isotherm]

We may actually see a day below 40 degrees, dare I say 32, per the Euro.

[jm1220]

I'll be in Florida. It's going to happen, guaranteed.

[SBUWX23]

with respect to the day 7-10.. the Euro and GFS both are showing a much colder look then we have seen all winter with a much more favorable pattern. This is not what we have seen all winter as there are other factors that are favorable which we have not seen..+PNA -AO neutral to neg NAO with a block across part of greenland scandanavia and the MJO getting active and more favorable The question now to me is how does this changing pattern evolve overall with storm threats. The first one is questionable, but with such an energetic cross-polar flow, I would suspect soemthing could occur down the line

[TheTrials]

with respect to the day 7-10.. the Euro and GFS both are showing a much colder look then we have seen all winter with a much more favorable pattern. This is not what we have seen all winter as there are other factors that are favorable which we have not seen..+PNA -AO neutral to neg NAO with a block across part of greenland scandanavia and the MJO getting active and more favorable The question now to me is how does this changing pattern evolve overall with storm threats. The first one is questionable, but with such an energetic cross-polar flow, I would suspect soemthing could occur down the line

great post, spot on IMHO !

[TheTrials]

GGEM'S. Some big time solutions in here, not for the faint of heart.

[Isotherm]

MJO phase 8, one can see the Warm west / Cold East orientation. However, also note the dryness tendency in the East w/ phase 8. It appears enhanced storminess doesn't show up until phase 1. Will be interesting to see how the sensible weather follows this; we may see a 3-5 day cold/dry period first, then the storm threat after.

[Isotherm]

Check out all the high heights across the north - quite a reversal from Dec/Jan.

ECMWF especially impressive.

[tmagan]

Once again, the lack of fresh, deep snow cover would ameliorate any frigid air.

[Absolute Humidity]

I'll take GEM 12 and 17. Woof

[Edge Weather]

The 12z EC, even though fairly light snow, appears to throw down about 6 inches of snow on Sunday all together, that is, in areas to the NW of the city.

[SnoSki14]

Once again, the lack of fresh, deep snow cover would ameliorate any frigid air.

I really don't care for frigid air, I just want it to be cold enough for a storm.

[earthlight]

Check out all the high heights across the north - quite a reversal from Dec/Jan.

ECMWF especially impressive.

The AO dropped to values below -4.4 today. This is the lowest AO reading since December of 2010. We are in the midst of a pattern reversal across the higher latitudes which we have been anticipating for a good time this winter. Now -- this is not to say that the pattern is going to stay locked in this entire way for February, but at least over the next two weeks...there are many reasons to get excited.

It's almost a complete reversal of the pattern -- and it is to the point now where we're starting to see the medium range guidance lock on to some significant possibilities. The pattern beginning around Day 8 and continuing through Day 14 has the potential to produce significant snowfall in our area. There are some historical analogs here which have produced prolific events.

Medium range forecasting has been inconsistent this year -- but the features becoming more anomalous as we approach the time frame can often be an indication that the signal is for real. In addition, we're beginning to see major modeled support from the MJO.

I'm becoming increasingly confident in the potential for a winter weather event the second week/weekend of February and the potential for more than one event moving forward from there.

[tmagan]

HPC says a Pacific winter recon mission will be flown this week.

[TheTrials]

ecmwf ensmebles are rather robust precip wise for the first event at 108. We are barely cold enough for snow on the smoothed mean

For the second wave, they are faster and ots.