ag3 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 And the cutoff in the SW continues to spin and spin through day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 And the cutoff in the SW continues to spin and spin through day 7. I'll bet my third testicle that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'll bet my third testicle that doesn't happen. It's been occurring all winter. Since late November. I see no reason to go against seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 H5 went towards the euro and other globals big time though, in regards to the vort cutting off in the southwest. If that happens, that kills the chance of anything from Feb. 3rd to the 5th. the euro doesn't have the cutoff in the sw, you are looking at yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It's been occurring all winter. Since late November. I see no reason to go against seasonal trends. I honestly can't remember a winter w/ so many vorts getting pinched off in the sern US. I would agree with seasonal trends; the only caveat I have is the fact that we're seeing our first, strong MJO wave of the winter season, and as this upward motion propagates eastward it would create a tendency to push things along. However, MJO doesn't really get into latter phase 7-8 for another week at least, which is why I prefer the time frame after Superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I honestly can't remember a winter w/ so many vorts getting pinched off in the sern US. I would agree with seasonal trends; the only caveat I have is the fact that we're seeing our first, strong MJO wave of the winter season, and as this upward motion propagates eastward it would create a tendency to push things along. However, MJO doesn't really get into latter phase 7-8 for another week at least, which is why I prefer the time frame after Superbowl. Tom, I think the frame to watch would be February 10-15; I hope the pattern will be settled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 well, the ggem does have a phased solution and this would likely lead to something much bigger in the next frames. Too bad the ggem is so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 well, the ggem does have a phased solution and this would likely lead to something much bigger in the next frames. Too bad the ggem is so bad. Good that it doesn't have the cutoff in the southwest though. I think that's the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Good that it doesn't have the cutoff in the southwest though. I think that's the most important thing. yes, thats why its phased. It ejects the energy out and and meets up with the northern stream as deep confluence builds in to the north, that would be a big storm. Again though, its the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Tom, I think the frame to watch would be February 10-15; I hope the pattern will be settled in. I agree Chris. The 12z GFS shows this also. I never had much hope for the late week, weekend potential. Storms following a warm spell, like we will have this week, usually never work out. If we end up with snow late this week/weekend, count it as a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 UKMET at 144hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 UKMET at 144hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=096&fixhh=1 thats fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Canadian at 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=156&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1 Canadian at 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=168&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Canadian at 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=168&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12Z GFS Ensembles show the storm closer to the coast with snow http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12156.gif Yesterday's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yesterday's run thanks i removed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 thanks i removed it The new run doesn't have a low. It focuses on the low for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 ggem is a snow to rain to snow long duration event. GEFS individuals are all over the place. Basically we know no more than we did yesterday at this time, which is to be epected given where all this energy is right now. Tomorrow 00z into Tuesday we will begin to see more focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Tom, I think the frame to watch would be February 10-15; I hope the pattern will be settled in. Chris, I would tend to agree with that time frame, possibly a bit earlier (after the 6th), but I think we need to wait until the PNA ridge reaches its full amplitude, and we shut off the incessant, omnipresent jet slamming into western Canada. Here's my illustration of why I believe Feb 7-15 is the period to watch (better than this weekend). 1. PNA ridge amplifying 2. +EPO becomes negative with massive height rises up through AK/NW Canada 3. Number 2 initiates cross polar flow, getting some actual, true cold air into the Northeast, PRIOR to potential deepening short waves 4. Upper flow becomes less progressive and more SW-NE oriented beyond Superbowl weekend. Can next weekend happen - maybe, but given this winter and the evidence above, I think we wait until the more conducive synoptics fall into place, which would be Feb 7-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 euro likes the lead wave, gonna drive it right over New York State. Not sure whats behind it, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Agreed with the above stuff Tom. I think we have a chance for something wintry over the next week -- but I also think this pattern has the chance of producing a KU if it plays out as advertised by the global ensembles. In that case, the potential would have the best chance of being realized beginning February 8th and continuing through the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 euro likes the lead wave, gonna drive it right over New York State. Not sure whats behind it, if anything. It doesn't look like it's going to cut off the h5 over the southwest yet -- but the stronger surface wave at 102 hours really muddles up the upper air pattern to the east and makes it harder to amplify something up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 i think its clear at this poiint any action is going to be after friday. The idea of the lead vort amounting to anything frozen and/or substantial is dwindling rapidly. Euro has the stronger energy dropping into the CONUS at 102 hours and seems to be ejecting the sw energy at the same time. This could look very ggemish going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lots of energy into the trough over the Plains at 120-- but it looks like it may be trying to cut it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Feb 7-15 period would only have a chance if the long range shown now actually manages to play out that way, which this winter it never has. I'll keep an eye out for the Feb 3-5 time frame for now rather than going two weeks+ ahead for something that may not be there even a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A ton of moisture gathering across the gulf as the big vort gets organized over the middle of the county. Big HP building in over the top of it. This should produce something, just not sure what yet. Def. should be more than what the gfs showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 that first vort trying to blow up out in the atlantic, would be nice to get that into a 50/50 position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A ton of moisture gathering across the gulf as the big vort gets organized over the middle of the county. Big HP building in over the top of it. This should produce something, just not sure what yet. Def. should be more than what the gfs showed. the trough is cutting off already in the mid levels, so it would need to eject a shortwave east/northeast like the GGEM in order to give us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 surface low pops at 138 1008mb over LA. Lets see if this goes ENE or up into chi town. Cross your fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 that first wave is helping over the atlantic pull some higher heights back towards greenland as a 1038 hp moves in over canada and tries to dig in. Nice surface relection coming north out of the gulf states 144. Not sure we can keep this from coming inland, but lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It's bringing in a northern stream vort very rapidly -- screaming south from Central Canada. 1012mb surface low over Mississippi at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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