earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Low pressure over Central New England at 132 hrs on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 lol euro goes from holding a cutoff low in the SW for 5 days to having an apps runner, lol. GFS keeps the lead wave very weak, and forms a second storm with the new trough diving down. Euro keeps the leadwave much stronger, so it cuts. New trough diving in still looks awesome at hr 150..We'll see if something pops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 similar look as the gfs for next sunday, despite the euro having the lead rainstorm. We are out to hr192 now and the trough is really trying hard to deliver. Plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lol NYC special at hr 198. Man we are way out there now but next weekend has alot of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lol...just misses a bomb at 192...instead gives us a significant snowstorm via a norlun trough that literally sits overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Arctic flood gates open up towards the end of the run, the polar vortex is getting uncomfortably close to our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Canadian says "aleet aleet, ridge shall be give" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro continues with its string of ridiculous solutions towards the end of the run. This time we have a PNA ridge with an axis near Boise extending into Yukon and the Polar Vortex sitting north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro continues with its string of ridiculous solutions towards the end of the run. This time we have a PNA ridge with an axis near Boise extending into Yukon and the Polar Vortex sitting north of Maine. Usually it's the GFS teasing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Now this is a high amplitude pattern. ECMWF 500 mb geopotenital height pattern. Day 8 through 10 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 If this upcoming pattern doesnt produce,im gonna be putting a end to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_0z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html P010 is basically a handicap version of PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 P010 is basically a handicap version of PDII p001 finds a way to hit us with both systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Arctic flood gates open up towards the end of the run, the polar vortex is getting uncomfortably close to our area weenie question... why you say uncomfortably?? i thought that PV will bring cold air to us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 weenie question... why you say uncomfortably?? i thought that PV will bring cold air to us?? single digits for lows and teens for highs is uncomfortable for me past 200 hrs is pure fantasy land so it doesn't matter at this point, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 P010 is basically a handicap version of PDII alot of the members are hinting that the trough could mean more business than advertised on tonights op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 "uncomfortably" in a good way, gotcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS has completely changed again, but another threatening look pulled out of a hat at 126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS has completely changed again, but another threatening look pulled out of a hat at 126 hours. Until some sort of convective feedback element causes it to totally botch the coastal that starts forming. Again, the general idea to take is that something is likely in the Day 5-9 range, as a matter of fact, 2 events are likely though one would almost surely be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Another AK block clearly forming on the last few runs of the GFS, the big question is if we get the Siberia retrograde this time around in mid February or if it hangs around over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Maybe somebody can explain why the 6z GFS has a totally different set up and solution -with the storm forming in the southeast and scooting out to sea missing us ? This leads me to believe the other runs were nonsense also -or maybe the GFS' tradition of losing the storm and setup in this time range? Should be interesting later how HPC views this - very likely no confidence again especially if the ensembles are diiferent and the 12Z runs are different again. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Long range already looking a lot more warmer than even a day ago, there's all this blocking and yet were still torching on the gfs. Zero consistency with every run, so who knows what's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 lol at the dgex, wow, thats impressive. I won't post it in here becasue it de-legitimizes this thread, but its a lot of snow, especially just north and west of the city and coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 On the 6z GFS, I don't see how the surface low jumps to the coast between 126 to 132hrs, when the s/w is still going strong over the Midwest. But it's the 6z run not worth anlayizing to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS has completely changed again, but another threatening look pulled out of a hat at 126 hours. Props to the late night crew a week before a threat up at 5 am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Props to the late night crew a week before a threat up at 5 am... Well its prolly the most exciting model runs these pasy few days the whole winter. Alot of excitement in this thread now something we really havent seen this winter season yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Im usually one to poo poo the scandanavian block, but in this situation, it could be the game changer. Would love to see that feature stay as strong as modeled and maybe back west a little bit more. Unless we cut a cutoff rotting 500 feature ala 12z yesterday I dont see this cutting. Its somewhere between the dgex solution or the 6 gfs IMHO. The progression of the PNA combined with the confluence to the north and scandanavian block will not let this cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 6z DGEX is a blizzard for some and a flooding rainstorm for others http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/06zdgexp24_NE156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 6z DGEX is a blizzard for some and a flooding rainstorm for others http://raleighwx.ame...exp24_NE156.gif The worm has turned.... Superbowl weekend HECS !!!!!!! maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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