February Winter Storm Prospects

[SnoSki14]

Gfs looks smoking hot this run, omg the crazy potential, reminds me of last winter. I love how beautifully the highs set up to the west, pretty classic positioning.

[CooL]

A lot of H5 energy over canada that DIDNT get into the setup till late in the game. Throw that in earlier and this would have been a monster.

the 1036mb high is still showing up also, just filtering the entire NE with fresh cold. It also lost that lead wave it had at 18z like i said.

[Chris L]

how is the block looking?

[ag3]

Even as is, the gfs brings the .50" line on the doorstep of NYC.

A solid 4"-6" event shown on the gfs.

[jiksports]

Gfs looks smoking hot this run, omg the crazy potential, reminds me of last winter. I love how beautifully the highs set up to the west, pretty classic positioning.

It is also within 6 days. There might be some potential. Personally, I would love it to cut west of NYC and nail Ithaca, but my friends in Brooklyn would certainly take the GFS.

[TheTrials]

man, just looking at H85 and H7 progression, its so close. Actually glad this didn't go nuts, because then it would have been, oh man, can we keep it this good for 20 more runs.

Of the two, H7 needs the most work right now, but that will come along with better H5 organization.

Very pumped.

[TheTrials]

you can't complain AT all about this run, its got that much potential. Woof Woof.

[earthlight]

Best looking maps I've seen since last January.

[mattinpa]

man, just looking at H85 and H7 progression, its so close.  Actually glad this didn't go nuts, because then it would have been, oh man, can we keep it this good for 20 more runs.

Of the two, H7 needs the most work right now, but that will come along with better H5 organization.

Very pumped.

As I said in the Philly thread, I'm sure there will be changes on the models, but hopefully not the general setup that provides the potential.

[SnoSki14]

If this verifies and the long range verifies, then this will the most dramatic turn around we have seen in a long time. February is an excellent month for snow and it can deliver some huge storms.

[Zir0b]

s/w in question won't be onshore until ~12z Wednesday, so until then...

[TheTrials]

our best storms have come from 500 lows ejecting and rolling acros the tennessee valley. This is exactly what we want and is entirely PNA driven.

[Chris L]

our best storms have come from 500 lows ejecting and rolling acros the tennessee valley. This is exactly what we want and is entirely PNA driven.

Yes, including the great January 1996 blizzard... so, this is a damn good setup, just needs a little bit more blocking then, well all bets are off.

[TheTrials]

Yes, including the great January 1996 blizzard... so, this is a damn good setup, just needs a little bit more blocking then, well all bets are off.

chillax with the KU references, you'll get the weenies in a tizzy.

We aren't going to get more blocking here, this will improve if we get a cleaner H5 progression.

[Chris L]

chillax with the KU references, you'll get the weenies in a tizzy.

We aren't going to get more blocking here, this will improve if we get a cleaner H5 progression.

We need to see a bit more amplificiation and hopefully the H500 can close off and better organzation...

[Mitchel Volk]

It is too early to tell, but February 4-14 is the best chance for a major snowstorm for NYC, so I think there is a chance. The ECMWF is also hinting, but the boundery leval temperatures are just a little warm, on the other hand the GFS supports all snow.

[TheTrials]

As I said at 12z, we actually have an extremely potent scandanavian block just to the north and east of greenland which is still there at 00z, this is really helping. I just dont see that working much further west, but as is, its fine.

[NYCSuburbs]

Considering that the pattern is mostly driven by the +PNA, wouldn't it still be difficult to get a snowstorm if the western ridge isn't close to an ideal position? With the improvements in the pattern at least one potential starting from 12/4 could turn into a snowstorm, but without any strong blocking west of Greenland I can imagine how there will still be some difficulties with getting snowstorm potentials to verify.

[TheTrials]

Right here in this frame is where we need H5 to improve. If it closed off here, h85 and h7 respond, as well as surface capture, and its utter bliss

also note the energy over canada, getting that to dig and dive into the trough would work.

[Chris L]

if that trough digs even more and cuts off, then we'd go crazy, I must say, its a lovely setup for us all. Its all polar jet.... and sone of the better storms have been polar jet orgin.

[CooL]

Considering that the pattern is mostly driven by the +PNA, wouldn't it still be difficult to get a snowstorm if the western ridge isn't close to an ideal position? With the improvements in the pattern at least one potential starting from 12/4 could turn into a snowstorm, but without any strong blocking west of Greenland I can imagine how there will still be some difficulties with getting snowstorm potentials to verify.

if the gfs is right, no. The pna ridge is absolutely classic. There's a strong high pressure filtering the trough, as well as tons of northern stream energy dropping in from canada. The first wave stays weak and keeps heights from rising rapidly and keeps the storm from cutting while at the same time delivering a nice cool shot before the real storm gets here.

[TheTrials]

if that trough digs even more and cuts off, then we'd go crazy, I must say, its a lovely setup for us all. Its all polar jet.... and sone of the better storms have been polar jet orgin.

if it cuts off, you would see a 12z solution, we dont wont that. You want this progression of the H5 low so we get cyclogenesis like this, but with the H5 low staying closed off or closing back off over the ohio valley/PA.

[TheTrials]

Ensembles as a smoothed mean look very similar to the OP, but I imagine there are a few really good hits in there.

[CooL]

Ensembles as a smoothed mean look very similar to the OP, but I imagine there are a few really good hits in there.

yup..the overall scheme of things looks similar. 1008mb on the BM at 156hrs on the ens mean with a cold surplus is a good enough signal for me

[MJO812]

GGEM also has a storm along the coast

[earthlight]

Even this run alone is a good hit.

[SnowGoose69]

The storm at 144 hours is a near lock when you have a -NAO to be a hit, in this setup though its extremely prone to going inland or west because that deepening of the 500 vort can occur too soon. The GFS setup is odd to me because there is not really a phase, again, we sort of see the 500mb vort sort of just blow up on its own with no phase, in this case though the weaker the better, we don't want a bowling ball forming over AR or TN.

[CooL]

The storm at 144 hours is a near lock when you have a -NAO to be a hit, in this setup though its extremely prone to going inland or west because that deepening of the 500 vort can occur too soon. The GFS setup is odd to me because there is not really a phase, again, we sort of see the 500mb vort sort of just blow up on its own with no phase, in this case though the weaker the better, we don't want a bowling ball forming over AR or TN.

yeah this should be interesting track..Despite the lack of a -NAO, we will have 2 major players in our favor with the perfect ridge out west and a strong high pressure building in.

[SnowGoose69]

yeah this should be interesting track..Despite the lack of a -NAO, we will have 2 major players in our favor with the perfect ridge out west and a strong high pressure building in.

The ridge being as far east as it is is very good, if that ridge was immediately on the West Coast in the setup the GFS shows we'd have no chance but we have a shot with it over the Rockies or even slightly east of that.

[Weathergun]

The storm at 144 hours is a near lock when you have a -NAO to be a hit, in this setup though its extremely prone to going inland or west because that deepening of the 500 vort can occur too soon. The GFS setup is odd to me because there is not really a phase, again, we sort of see the 500mb vort sort of just blow up on its own with no phase, in this case though the weaker the better, we don't want a bowling ball forming over AR or TN.

There is a weak -NAO around Iceland at 132hrs. But I agree, if the GFS setup were correct, we don't the system too strong.