bluewave Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 10:38 PM, pazzo83 said: There just isn't much cold air to begin with. It took three cold fronts during the past few days just to bring us down to seasonable temps for highs, and that was basically one short lived 18 hour period yesterday until the torch re-emerged. True. You can see how much milder over Canada the forecast for the 4th is going to verify from the ten day forecast. 240 hr 84 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 1:36 PM, NEG NAO said: FWIW the 0Z NOGAPS is the DGEX on steroids http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12144.gif The NOAGPS drops the northern stream in and phases at the last possible minute amplifying the trough and almost giving it a negative tilt. Six hours sooner and we would be in business. The problem is, we have the worst two models on our side showing a snow storm. The interesting factor is that the NOAGPS tends to have a supressed bias but I don't really see that coming into play with this type of synoptic setup. In reality, we tend to not do well in bowling ball type setups, or it could be that they tend to evolve differently. If I remember correctly, Boxing Day first showed up as a bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z NAM continues to advertise a winter storm for the area (unknown to what extent) after hour 84. Certainly will be some snow/winter precip if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 2:39 PM, YanksFan27 said: The NOAGPS drops the northern stream in and phases at the last possible minute amplifying the trough and almost giving it a negative tilt. Six hours sooner and we would be in business. The problem is, we have the worst two models on our side showing a snow storm. The interesting factor is that the NOAGPS tends to have a supressed bias but I don't really see that coming into play with this type of synoptic setup. In reality, we tend to not do well in bowling ball type setups, or it could be that they tend to evolve differently. If I remember correctly, Boxing Day first showed up as a bowling ball. I think the gfs and euro this winter can give any model a run for the worst model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 3:33 PM, Zelocita Weather said: 12z NAM continues to advertise a winter storm for the area (unknown to what extent) after hour 84. Certainly will be some snow/winter precip if the NAM is right. hmmm I get that the 6z DGEX evolved the 6z NAM into a snowstorm but I'm not sure how you can tell that it would do the same based off the 12z NAM. Here is hour 84, temps are well above freezing for the entire area, not exactly the type of airmass you want in place as a storm is arriving from the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yes, I honestly believe this will be coming further north. How many times have we seen the models latch on to a solution, lose it, then bring it back when the systems come on shore from the Pacific. Happens all the time. On 2/1/2012 at 3:33 PM, Zelocita Weather said: 12z NAM continues to advertise a winter storm for the area (unknown to what extent) after hour 84. Certainly will be some snow/winter precip if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 There is a block in place to the north in southeast Canada that will prevent the storm from going any further north as it heads east. This will lock the cold air in place. While it is warm at the surface, aloft the 850 temps are well below freezing. As the precip begins surface temps will fall rapidly below freezing. This is a snowstorm for Sunday if the NAM is right. On 2/1/2012 at 3:42 PM, YanksFan27 said: hmmm I get that the 6z DGEX evolved the 6z NAM into a snowstorm but I'm not sure how you can tell that it would do the same based off the 12z NAM. Here is hour 84, temps are well above freezing for the entire area, not exactly the type of airmass you want in place as a storm is arriving from the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 ^^^ I can't see this storm taking the Euro's track if the Nam and GFS are right with the high placements up north. Like you just said, it has a block in southeast Cananda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 3:33 PM, Zelocita Weather said: 12z NAM continues to advertise a winter storm for the area (unknown to what extent) after hour 84. Certainly will be some snow/winter precip if the NAM is right. The set-up is putrid. If we get snow this weekend we'll be threading a needle within a needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 3:49 PM, Snow88 said: ^^^ I can't see this storm taking the Euro's track if the Nam and GFS are right with the high placements up north. Like you just said, it has a block in southeast Cananda. There is no block in SE Canada. none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 3:50 PM, Isotherm said: The set-up is putrid. If we get snow this weekend we'll be threading a needle within a needle. Set up last Jan was not good..However different......That was a needle in a needle......(haystack?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Look at the 500mb map at 84 hrs. over Southeast Canada, extending into Northern Maine. On 2/1/2012 at 3:52 PM, Chris L said: There is no block in SE Canada. none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 3:50 PM, Isotherm said: The set-up is putrid. If we get snow this weekend we'll be threading a needle within a needle. You know it looks bad when Isotherm is poo-pooing the chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 But have the models really latched on to a solution? They've been all over the place for the past 3 -5 days On 2/1/2012 at 3:44 PM, 1234abc said: Yes, I honestly believe this will be coming further north. How many times have we seen the models latch on to a solution, lose it, then bring it back when the systems come on shore from the Pacific. Happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GFS looking at the vort looks like it took a noticeable shift East between 50-60 hours. This run may produce something, we'll see. Plenty of banana High's to the North which should be keeping this storm on a general East track not North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yes, a few days ago they had latched onto the idea of a system heading toward the lakes, then dyeing out as another storm formed along the coast. On 2/1/2012 at 4:02 PM, Plfdwxdude said: But have the models really latched on to a solution? They've been all over the place for the past 3 -5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 With the confluence in SE canada the low can't come further north on the 12z nam. Lets see what the gfs has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 4:04 PM, Frank said: 12z GFS looking at the vort looks like it took a noticeable shift East between 50-60 hours. This run may produce something, we'll see. Plenty of banana High's to the North which should be keeping this storm on a general East track not North. Yep, this thing isn't going to look like the Euro on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GFS says that the Euro is on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GFS looks MUCH better today and this is a positive trend that I was looking for. All we need is trends, we do not need these models showing a snowstorm 4 days out. This was a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 4:10 PM, 1234abc said: Yep, GFS gives snow on Sunday. I thought so. Looks to warm for snow on that map! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It then strengthens offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Pretty warn boundary layer on Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GFS is trying to phase some of the energy that is in SE Canada with the vort shooting out from the plains. Lets see what happens in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We do not need to look at temp profiles this point in time. That will be something that get ironed out 72 hours before the storm. Positive trends...hopefully it continues tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 4:15 PM, pazzo83 said: There be much delusion in here! How? This run was much better than what the Euro was showing and it's not that far away from an all snow event. Of course the GFS has changed about 100000000000 times already. Lets see if the ensembles agree with it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Chances are quite high for at least a light snowfall at this point for the area (1"-3" snow) looking at NAM/GFS guidance. Maybe more, but that is still up in the air. Would not be worried on boundary temps at this point, with this type set-up or at this point on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 4:15 PM, ag3 said: Pretty warn boundary layer on Gfs. yes, correct. This not a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Of course we do. There is very little cold air and we barely drop below freezing between now and Sunday. I'm not saying it can't snow but we shouldn't assume in this winter that we will get snow out of this. But if we're just looking for positive trends, then yes this qualifies. On 2/1/2012 at 4:17 PM, Frank said: We do not need to look at temp profiles this point in time. That will be something that get ironed out 72 hours before the storm. Positive trends...hopefully it continues tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 3:59 PM, 1234abc said: Look at the 500mb map at 84 hrs. over Southeast Canada, extending into Northern Maine. There is a new PV developing over SE Canada, that would force this south, if the cut-low were to eject out early. But the cut-off low has to phase or interact perfectly with PV disturbance. Otherwise it will get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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