WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Discuss..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 0z EURO at 180 hours from wunderground... http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/397946_309950022390097_100001253051397_972256_1690014520_n.jpg I-95 and points East remain warm, but check out Upsate NY and Northern New England. I wonder if it develops the coastal storm other models are showing between the 5th-7th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hour 216- EURO does show a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The problem is the ridge out west is too progressive and without a -NAO it will be very hard to get any sort of ideal timing to a storm that forms along the East Coast. The Pattern at 500mb out west and in the East Pac actually looks somewhat similar to 12/25/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The problem is the ridge out west is too progressive and without a -NAO it will be very hard to get any sort of ideal timing to a storm that forms along the East Coast. The Pattern at 500mb out west and in the East Pac actually looks somewhat similar to 12/25/10. Looking at the maps I can see this. If we had the -NAO and blocking it could have been a Superbowl weekend NESIS 4 KU HECS. We'll have to settle for a 5-7 inch event at best without the blocking and -NAO. If we had DS Blocking could have been much better next weekend. The -EPO and +PNA are perfect looking at least. Is there a chance of a Jan 2011 style NESIS 1-2 KU event with the favorable Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 First storm is tough because the antecedent airmass really stinks, for the lack of a better word. What would otherwise be a terrific set up aloft turns mediocre in the mid and low level because of the stagnant airmass and surface flow prior to the storm. And with no blocking, the surface low can initially cut pretty far west. We are relying on an area of confluence to the north to stop that from happening. I think we can still get something out of it...but my guess right now is that storm has the potential to be a monster for Central and Northern New England. This could be their first really big storm of the season. I like the period directly after that for more significant winter weather impacts in our area. But you never know. Still plenty of time...you can't rule anything out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 12z GFS is ready to show another major storm at 138 hours. It looks colder initially but the PNA is amplifying rapidly and you can see a beast of a shortwave diving southeast into the CONUS at that hour..into a mean trough over the East. There's some good stuff going on here. Lack of blocking and a crappy airmass to start will probably hurt us in the end..but it should be interesting to see how this plays out..especially aloft with many shortwaves involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 looks like a huge closed 500mb progression at 150 the first wave is too weak and warm to help us but wow at the monster behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Just so happens that I'll be in Florida for Super Bowl weekend. Guarantee one of these storms, or heck all of them, work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 another two wave scenario here, forget the first one at 138, no shot there jeez at the incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 another two wave scenario here, forget the first one at 138, no shot there jeez at the incoming. Probably what we need, as we need the storm to be later. But does a 2-wave seem plausible to you? We've hoped they were true before this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Looks like the first wave is kicking the baroclinic zone east...we need to ditch the messy H5 look as we approach the event. What a monster over the Central US at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Looks like the first wave is kicking the baroclinic zone east...we need to ditch the messy H5 look as we approach the event. What a monster over the Central US at 168. with the strength of that H5 and the 1040 high over canada blocking up the entire flow, the baroclynic zone will be less of a worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Man, 174 should get some people going. The ridge out west is shifting a little too far east for my liking, though. We'll have to watch that carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Gorgeous look at hr 180 with a beautiful trough and a strengthening high pressure. The trough goes negative a tad late though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Man, 174 should get some people going. The ridge out west is shifting a little too far east for my liking, though. We'll have to watch that carefully. Its an explosive setup, dont expect the gfs to have the pieces close right now. Its gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 PNA ridge does its magic a la February 2006; now let's see if we can get it to be true. Classic Trough on the GFS; but, I would like to see some kind of ridging on the North Atlantic; man if we did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 well, gfs says it snow all super bowl weekend, albeit it very very light for most of it. We get a little enhancement on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 PNA ridge does its magic a la February 2006 It's pushing too far east for my liking at 174. It doesn't allow the height field to back along the coast when the shortwave amplifies over the Central US. We can't have this happen without blocking OR a well positioned PNA ridge. Not the biggest deal anyway...174 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's pushing too far east for my liking at 174. It doesn't allow the height field to back along the coast when the shortwave amplifies over the Central US. We can't have this happen without blocking OR a well positioned PNA ridge. Not the biggest deal anyway...174 hours away. You are right, but like we all know, it would change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Looking at the maps I can see this. If we had the -NAO and blocking it could have been a Superbowl weekend NESIS 4 KU HECS. We'll have to settle for a 5-7 inch event at best without the blocking and -NAO. If we had DS Blocking could have been much better next weekend. The -EPO and +PNA are perfect looking at least. Is there a chance of a Jan 2011 style NESIS 1-2 KU event with the favorable Pacific? Whoa, whoa, take it easy. NESIS 4 events are a rare, rare breed. We didn't even have one in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 12z GFS looks sloppy with phasing back west. Don't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 12z GFS looks sloppy with phasing back west. Don't trust it. It likes to do this in this range, anyway. But a cool signal nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 12z GFS looks sloppy with phasing back west. Don't trust it. As in the last storm I think at this distance we have to rely more on the Euro. It is much accurate at this stage. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It likes to do this in this range, anyway. But a cool signal nevertheless. Just with this system, now, it wasn't phasing the cut-off low in, until within 24hrs. Given the trends this past season, I don't see why we don't see more phasing sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Day 10-11 GFS has a some semblence of a negative NAO on Greenland, along with +PNA and -EPO. It might be the weekend of FEB 12, that we get a monster event; but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 As in the last storm I think at this distance we have to rely more on the Euro. It is much accurate at this stage. Rossi at 180 hours, they are pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The GFS sniffed out last weekend's event at least 8 days out. Granted it lost it and got it back again, lost it, etc. before finally deciding it would snow 2 days before. As in the last storm I think at this distance we have to rely more on the Euro. It is much accurate at this stage. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 this should have produced something for more organized than what the goofus spit out. The PNA ridge as the 500mb vort is diving in is in perfect, spot, if it moves east after, shouldn't matter because the vort is already set into motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Day 10-11 GFS has a some semblence of a negative NAO on Greenland, along with +PNA and -EPO. It might be the weekend of FEB 12, that we get a monster event; but we shall see. Sweet. Feb 15 was the day i picked. FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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