BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't understand this. How could a scientific "method" that can get you so confident on a specifc snowfall range-- way beyond just a pattern--for DC not be able to get you to the same bombastic specificity for anywhere else in the country? All it takes, in my opinion, is a clear vision of the large scale pattern, then take into account the SST values and the asociated levels of convection. I would never attempt to predict the exact dates of a storm, but rather predict the window in which I feel a storm/track/type may be more likely. And of course there is some probability involved, but less than you may think...at least that is how I go about my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 All it takes, in my opinion, is a clear vision of the large scale pattern, then take into account the SST values and the asociated levels of convection. I would never attempt to predict the exact dates of a storm, but rather predict the window in which I feel a storm/track/type may be more likely. And of course there is some probability involved, but less than you may think...at least that is how I go about my thinking. You didn't answer my question at all. What do you confidently forecast for Buffalo, NY, Boston, MA, Chicago, IL, and Seattle, WA for February and March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 You didn't answer my question at all. What do you confidently forecast for Buffalo, NY, Boston, MA, Chicago, IL, and Seattle, WA for February and March? You mean in range form? Based on what I think the pattern will look like during the time of interest: Seattle: T-3" Chicago: 20-30" Boston: 25-45" Buffalo: 35-55" [though I don't know s**t about local climo there]. DC: 20-40" Richmond: 15-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You mean in range form? Based on what I think the pattern will look like during the time of interest: Seattle: T-3" Chicago: 20-30" Boston: 25-45" Buffalo: 35-55" [though I don't know s**t about local climo there]. DC: 20-40" Richmond: 15-30" You came up with all that in 10 minutes using your special formula? Edit: So let's go out to la-la land and assume your forumla works. Let's say at best could give you the accurate state of every major global atmospheric/oceanic circulation for a certain period. How can you then make the jump to forecast specific snow totals for certain cities? It makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 How on gods green earth did this thread receive more than 2 responses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 You came up with all that in 10 minutes using your special formula? Edit: So let's go out to la-la land and assume your forumla works. Let's say at best could give you the accurate state of every major global atmospheric/oceanic circulation for a certain period. How can you then make the jump to forecast specific snow totals for certain cities? It makes no sense. Why do you say that? For the most part I base the predictions off how I feel the pattern will specifically progress, also using SSTAs from 30S to 30N, contrasted against the MEI/SOI value+trend, vs the hypothesized lag from the AP index. I'm too tired right now, but tomorrow I plan to go into more direct detail on how I carry out the calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow - 0z GFS pops a huge ridge out west and brings artic air across the entire eastern conus. Okay Bethesda I'm jumping on the February snow train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You mean in range form? Based on what I think the pattern will look like during the time of interest: Seattle: T-3" Chicago: 20-30" Boston: 25-45" Buffalo: 35-55" [though I don't know s**t about local climo there]. DC: 20-40" Richmond: 15-30" To put this forecast in perspective, here are the ballpark normal snowfall amounts for these cities from Feb through early March: Seattle: 2" Chicago: 11" Boston: 15" Buffalo: 22" DC: 6" Richmond: 6" Should be a crazy snowy February for everyone except Seattle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You mean in range form? Based on what I think the pattern will look like during the time of interest: Seattle: T-3" Chicago: 20-30" Boston: 25-45" Buffalo: 35-55" [though I don't know s**t about local climo there]. DC: 20-40" Richmond: 15-30" I will eat a shoe if any of these numbers even come close except the easy one of Seattle, and hell I could that one busting severely low if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I, like Trixie, would love to see the formula in action... with values. BB, when you have the time, please forecast for us, what the snowfall values could be for Philly. Please type it all out, I realize it may take you sometime, but there are a few of us who would love to see this formula in action. Thanks and happy Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Why do you say that? For the most part I base the predictions off how I feel the pattern will specifically progress, also using SSTAs from 30S to 30N, contrasted against the MEI/SOI value+trend, vs the hypothesized lag from the AP index. I'm too tired right now, but tomorrow I plan to go into more direct detail on how I carry out the calculation. This^ I plan to go into more detail this afternoon when I should have the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 This^ I plan to go into more detail this afternoon when I should have the time. Looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 All this stuff goes over my head and I don't believe any of it anyway, but I tell you what- if from this point forward we somehow get 20+ inches at BWI or DCA this winter, then I'll pay attention. Good luck, and trust me, as a snow lover- I hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Why do you say that? For the most part I base the predictions off how I feel the pattern will specifically progress, also using SSTAs from 30S to 30N, contrasted against the MEI/SOI value+trend, vs the hypothesized lag from the AP index. I'm too tired right now, but tomorrow I plan to go into more direct detail on how I carry out the calculation. Not heeding my advice I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Trixie, you need to be careful now, you've been treading water but are dangerously close to undermining your own opinion base...just a word of caution. going on 24 hours and the super fabulous "formula" still hasn't been set out as math with values, even though snowfall forecasts for various cities were generated by it. I've told you what I do, broad scale, in interpreting various atmospheric processes and their relation to solar activity. This isn't acomplex mathematical formula. Snowfall predictions are based off how I feel the pattern will progress, with probability applied as well. The actual data analysis uses data in the public domain [ONI, SOI, MEI, AP/AA Index, global SSTAs]. I explained what I do, now you can find the data yourself. yep--correlation doesn't equal causation. This is irrelavent crap, you can't [via the scientific method] call a scientific hypothesis "nonsense" just because correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation. That is a stupid way to think, and is breaching the scientific method. Watts doesn't have an atmospheric science degree and if you think he does then it's even more difficult to take you seriously. What is his degree in? Look, I'm not a fan of Watts, but I was under the impression he had a relavent degree of some sort. If not, I really don't give crap as I only brought him up as you cited your Hubby's irrelavent degree [when it comes to solar influence on the atmosphere & it's processes. The oceans operate on the basis of external forcing through changes in atmospheric dynamics. furthermore, the fact you don't understand the link between oceanography and atmos science only continues to underscore the fact you totally lack credibility. why this is even a thread is a mystery. You are very stupid of you think physical oceanography is at all relavent to solar influence on atmospheric processes. I know that the ocean thermal inertia is not 6-7 years so your claims are invalidated from the start. that's all anyone really needs to know. And now you've lost all credibility, GTFO of my thread. What the bloody heck is "ocean thermal inertia"? Do you know what a recieving body's "thermal inertia" contrast actually is? And what determines it? Apparently you don't, and then you make claims such as "I know ocean thermal inertia is not 6-7 years" when you obviously don't know what thermal inertia even is. I read him your posts word for word. You're very stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Oh good lord. If its going to be stupid personal ****, can it be moved to off-topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Thethermal response occurs 6-7 years later as a result of the Ocean's thermal inertia, superimposed against the atmospheric system body, which contains less energy than the oceans by...alot. Think of the atmosphere as the "messenger", where forcings are processed through to meet equilibrium with the ocean energy system/total system state. However, that has to be done through the atmospheric system, which is currently operating under present-time solar influence, against oceanic lag which must be compensated for. So a "decision of operation" must be reached in the total system state. This is why I feel lagged magnetic activity, and the current solar flux, must be used in relative tandom. The Magnetic Sun drives ENSO and the global temp, in my view, via this mechanism Sun ---> AO/NAO/AAO ---> Cloud Cover re-positioning/configuration---> Re-distribution of heat/temperature ---> wind budget alteration ---> ENSO. And now you've lost all credibility, GTFO of my thread. What the bloody heck is "ocean thermal inertia"? Do you know what a recieving body's "thermal inertia" contrast actually is? And what determines it? Apparently you don't, and then you make claims such as "I know ocean thermal inertia is not 6-7 years" when you obviously don't know what thermal inertia even is. You tell us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Oh good lord. If its going to be stupid personal ****, can it be moved to off-topic? Manipulative argumental tactics + initiating insults/attacks is just cold, the lowest of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 You tell us? Ocean's thermal intertia? Just google what thermal inertia is. Every body of matter has potential relative thermal inertia. I've never heard "Ocean thermal inertia" before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Ocean's thermal intertia? Just google what thermal inertia is. Every body of matter has potential relative thermal inertia. Wait a minute... you are questioning Trixie on what Ocean Thermal Intertia is, because she left off the "s"? You cannot be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Trixie, you need to be careful now, you've been treading water but are dangerously close to undermining your own opinion base...just a word of caution. I've told you what I do, broad scale, in interpreting various atmospheric processes and their relation to solar activity. This isn't acomplex mathematical formula. Snowfall predictions are based off how I feel the pattern will progress, with probability applied as well. The actual data analysis uses data in the public domain [ONI, SOI, MEI, AP/AA Index, global SSTAs]. I explained what I do, now you can find the data yourself. Help me and all of us understand. So you have no real computaion that you have made? you look at various public data sets and then make your own forecast? What does this mean that you predict off how you "feel?" it just seems that there will be no way for anyone to check how this worked when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Ocean's thermal intertia? Just google what thermal inertia is. Every body of matter has potential relative thermal inertia. I've never heard "Ocean thermal inertia" before. I never heard of barrel*ing low before either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Manipulative argumental tactics + initiating insults/attacks is just cold, the lowest of the low. It is what it is. But this entire thing is pretty much a joke at this point, and maybe better served not poisoning the board. Some really good red taggers have engaged you and pointed out issues, and perhaps you could take their suggestions to heart and re-visit rather than calling people stupid or needlessly escalating whatever this is to feed whatever your need is for attention. Or, you know, take the whole thing to off-topic or some such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It is what it is. But this entire thing is pretty much a joke at this point, and maybe better served not poisoning the board. Some really good red taggers have engaged you and pointed out issues, and perhaps you could take their suggestions to heart and re-visit rather than calling people stupid or needlessly escalating whatever this is to feed whatever your need is for attention. Or, you know, take the whole thing to off-topic or some such. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wait a minute... you are questioning Trixie on what Ocean Thermal Intertia is, because she left off the "s"? You cannot be serious. No, she would have said THE Ocean'S thermal inertia, not Ocean Thermal Inertia...she doesn't know what it is! She has no idea why the Ocean's thermal inertia CANNOT be instantanious via the laws of physics. Put two pots on the stove, one with water in it, one without. Turn the flames on for 5 min, then turn them off. Which will cool back to equilibrium FIRST, the pot with nothing in it, or the pot of water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 No, she would have said THE Ocean'S thermal inertia, not Ocean Thermal Inertia...she doesn't know what it is! She has no idea why the Ocean's thermal inertia CANNOT be instantanious via the laws of physics. Put two pots on the stove, one with water in it, one without. Turn the flames on for 5 min, then turn them off. Which will cool back to equilibrium FIRST, the pot with nothing in it, or the pot of water? I understood what she meant by her post, she was questioning your comment regarding THE Ocean'S thermal inertia. If you couldn't understand that, it is not Trixie's fault. Do us all a favor and please just stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Help me and all of us understand. So you have no real computaion that you have made? you look at various public data sets and then make your own forecast? What does this mean that you predict off how you "feel?" I do a fairly simple mathematical computation, I explained what I do in superimposing current processes [ONI + MEI & SOI] on lagged geomagnetic activity in the AP index. it just seems that there will be no way for anyone to check how this worked when all is said and done. Thats because the "filler" variable I use to translate the numerical result to the atmospheric progression is something I want to keep to myself for now. I have 2 reasons for that but I'm not sharing them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I understood what she meant by her post, she was questioning your comment regarding THE Ocean'S thermal inertia. If you couldn't understand that, it is not Trixie's fault. Do us all a favor and please just stop posting. Me too, easy judgement there...she doesn't know what the fook she's talking about. How about you stop posting since you cannot respectfully engage me in discussion? I have never initiated an attack on a member in the MA forum, however I've been attacked numerously. But you can't seem to refrain, so why do you think I'd choose to not respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Me too, easy judgement there...she doesn't know what the fook she's talking about. How about you stop posting since you cannot respectfully engage me in discussion? I have never initiated an attack on a member in the MA forum, however I've been attacked numerously. But you can't seem to refrain, so why do you think I'd leave? Ive asked you plenty of question that you cannot seem to answer. LIke, where is your formula? Why can you not show all of us who are interested in how this formula works. Tell me what you think it will do for Philly? Work it out in a post for us. You picked apart a post from Trixie because she left off the word THE and and "S". That is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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