My thoughts on the winter turnaround

[FXW176]

[usedtobe]

I take the lagged AP/AA index values, and superimpose them on the current SOI/MEI values + their trends, to determine the future of the AO/AAO. The MJO is basically just an index representing tropical upward motion/convection, which is determined by SSTAs and atmospheric circulation patterns, so I use SSTAs from 30N to 30S, and based on my hypothesis that atmospheric kinetic energy is the preceding forcing, I use the lagged AP/AA index values again in contrast to current SSTAs to determine their future changes.

Where are your corelations? If don got them wrong, shows us how you did it and got different correlations. I think that's what most of us are interested in. Don tried to understand it and he's really sharp. Just saying you don't like his methodolgy really explains little.

[MN Transplant]

BB,

I'm glad you have your own thread now. One question about the snowfall prediction - is it DC specific, or do you see widespread snowfall up and down the east coast. As you well know, and we've seen recently, even with favorable overall patterns/conditions specific storms dictate seasonal/monthly snowfall amounts (think dec 26, 2010 or north of us for feb 6, 10).

[MacChump]

"...at the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes -- an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive, and the most ruthlessly skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new. This is how deep truths are winnowed from deep nonsense."

carl sagan

don't know why, but this quotation popped into my head recently

[BethesdaWX]

Where are your corelations? If don got them wrong, shows us how you did it and got different correlations. I think that's what most of us are interested in. Don tried to understand it and he's really sharp. Just saying you don't like his methodolgy really explains little.

Did you accidentally quote the wrong post? Aside from the peer reviewed analysis I linked, I'm sure you know ENSO events typically peak during the heart of the winter season, in the NDJ or DJF trimonthly, so why correlate individual years' ONI instead of the NDJF period, 6.5yrs after the geomagnetic impulse value?

I posted a few peer reviewed studies doing the intricate statistical analysis, I don't have the time to do that right now. All I did was correlate the strong El Nino events to high AP index spikes 6.5yrs earlier.

[BethesdaWX]

BB,

I'm glad you have your own thread now. One question about the snowfall prediction - is it DC specific, or do you see widespread snowfall up and down the east coast. As you well know, and we've seen recently, even with favorable overall patterns/conditions specific storms dictate seasonal/monthly snowfall amounts (think dec 26, 2010 or north of us for feb 6, 10).

Thanks,

It is for the DC/Balti corridor, specifically, but I do not think the pattern will be conductive for the SNE cutoff, like we saw with 2/5 - 2/6 storm.

[usedtobe]

Did you accidentally quote the wrong post? Aside from the peer reviewed analysis I linked, I'm sure you know ENSO events typically peak during the heart of the winter season, in the NDJ or DJF trimonthly, so why correlate individual years' ONI instead of the NDJF period, 6.5yrs after the geomagnetic impulse value?

I posted a few peer reviewed studies doing the intricate statistical analysis, I don't have the time to do that right now. All I did was correlate the strong El Nino events to high AP index spikes 6.5yrs earlier.

That does not show correlations that explain exactly how you make your forecasts and what the numbers are.

[ORH_wxman]

Its impossible to predict the nuances of any specific storms at a lead time of a week, nevermind more than that.

That said, without a STJ/active southern stream, its very tough to get big DC/BWI snowfalls...that is why La Ninas tend to stink there. You normally need a split flow/+PNA in a La Nina to get any big storms there so that the split PJ can simulate a STJ southern stream...ala Blizzard of '96.

[BethesdaWX]

That does not show correlations that explain exactly how you make your forecasts and what the numbers are.

Are you asking for the qualitative correlation between ENSO and the Sun, or my "sun-earth systematic interaction" hypothesis?

[BethesdaWX]

we need the math and the values.

real science is repeatable.

step up to the plate, Einstein

It is going to take me a little while to do so be patient with me, please.

[HM]

I don't wish to get into board politics, but I can appreciate someone trying to formulate new ideas by reading the current ideas that are presented. I agree with BB that the solar / magnetic field play a strong role in determining the state of global circulation. I also agree that you cannot simply run a correlation coefficient on this data and expect great results (EOF analysis needs to be run when comparing ENSO and the AA-index). Statistically significant correlations DO exist between the solar wind, QBO and ENSO.

For example: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682608003726

I think his excitement / new ideas are normal for his age. We all remember when Chuck did this and forgot that there is NO Coriolis force at the equator for his theory. The point is: it is good to think and create and to learn the basics as well.

Having said all this, I don't agree with the 6-year lag theory / ENSO. I think the results are more direct and for the opposite reasons BB thinks (e.g, grand solar wind minimums correlate to colder Tropics and more convection, weaker Hadley Cells and weaker trade winds which spark El Niños).

[BethesdaWX]

You posted this:

Then Ellinwood posted this:

Moving the goal posts by now saying it was your Dec 29th post?

The current GEFS ensemble forecast can't be validated/invalidated because it hasn't happened yet

[Ellinwood]

The current GEFS ensemble forecast can't be validated/invalidated because it hasn't happened yet

No, but it does imply that it's most recent verifications have shown poor correlations, and that current forecasts should be weighted accordingly (by weighing the GFS forecast less).

[WinterWxLuvr]

Didn't Don Sutherland post correlations in the climate forum that were so low that he concluded that was little impact of the sun on enso? I vaguely remember reading your replies to him and your moving on to it being the rate of change or something like that.

I know you are quoting Don, and I could see the sun not being the driver of ENSO (immediate), but it seems counterintuitive that the sun wouldn't be the number one primary driver of weather on the planet. I know that that isn't what you were saying, but it just caught my eye.

[WinterWxLuvr]

No, but it does imply that it's most recent verifications have shown poor correlations, and that current forecasts should be weighted accordingly (by weighing the GFS forecast less).

That may be true, but it would seem that all of the models in the link want to send the MJO into phase 7. Those diagrams are difficult to decyhper, and maybe they don't all move it as fast or as strong, but it seems they all head to 7.

BTW, I appreciate the link. I didn't know of that one before.

[BethesdaWX]

Having said all this, I don't agree with the 6-year lag theory / ENSO. I think the results are more direct and for the opposite reasons BB thinks (e.g, grand solar wind minimums correlate to colder Tropics and more convection, weaker Hadley Cells and weaker trade winds which spark El Niños).

Thanks

I appriciate the linked paper, I'll definitely read it in it's entirety. How long do you suspect changes in external forcing energies are processed in the system, then? I agree in that the current solar flux plays a role which is why I like to superimpose it on the [hypothesized] lagged signal.

Some scientists believe there is a lagged signal too, and attempt to figure out the process in their papers. The amazing similarities between the 2009/10 El Nino and the 2003 AP Index spike is what motivated me to research it a bit more.

http://hal.archives-...s-2-83-2002.pdf

http://hal-insu.arch...r/hal-00296910/

I've been under the impression that a climate system that rushes to meet equilibrium quickly can't really experience significant changes in net thermal energy?.

[usedtobe]

I know you are quoting Don, and I could see the sun not being the driver of ENSO (immediate), but it seems counterintuitive that the sun wouldn't be the number one primary driver of weather on the planet. I know that that isn't what you were saying, but it just caught my eye.

That's not what I was saying or what Don was implying. Certainly without the sun, we'd be a ball of ice. However, to conclude that changes in the sun can be used to accurately time the onset of an el nino or the the occurance of a 2 week period favoring lots of major snowstorms is another matter. Years ago, Gordon Barnes claimed to use sunspots and some type of recurring cycle to forecast storms. A friend decided to randomly pick days and his random days for storms outperformed Barne's methods. Even if BB ended up getting 10-15 inches this winter there is no way of knowing whether it was luck or skill. You can't know that until you've verified multiple forecasts.

[HM]

Thanks

I appriciate the linked paper, I'll definitely read it in it's entirety. How long do you suspect changes in external forcing energies are processed in the system, then? I agree in that the current solar flux plays a role which is why I like to superimpose it on the [hypothesized] lagged signal.

Some scientists believe there is a lagged signal too. The amazing similarities between the 2009/10 El Nino and the 2003 AP Index spike is what motivated me to research it a bit more.

http://hal.archives-...s-2-83-2002.pdf

http://hal-insu.arch...r/hal-00296910/

I've been under the impression that a climate system that rushes to meet equilibrium quickly can't really experience significant changes in net thermal energy?.

Before I really comment on the matter, I'll read through your links and see what I can get from it. I think the sun affects things on multiple time scales that may give the impression that there are longer-term lags. For what we are discussing here and the time scales we are focusing on, I think the solar factor on AO, ENSO, pattern etc. is a lot more direct and not years. But I'll check everything out and let you know.

I think the harmonic nature / structure of the various cycles that exist will mean you can pick any point and say it lags to something. That's the beauty of the symmetry with these cycles.

[nw baltimore wx]

That's not what I was saying or what Don was implying. Certainly without the sun, we'd be a ball of ice. However, to conclude that changes in the sun can be used to accurately time the onset of an el nino or the the occurance of a 2 week period favoring lots of major snowstorms is another matter. Years ago, Gordon Barnes claimed to use sunspots and some type of recurring cycle to forecast storms. A friend decided to randomly pick days and his random days for storms outperformed Barne's methods. Even if BB ended up getting 10-15 inches this winter there is no way of knowing whether it was luck or skill. You can't know that until you've verified multiple forecasts.

I don't think anyone would disagree with this. However, if we do end up getting an unprecedented 20 to 40 inches in a nina, then maybe someone should raise an eyebrow and have a look at his notebook.

Having said that, given the choice, I would bet that any team other than the Giants or Pats have a better chance of winning the super bowl next weekend than this forecast verifying.

But good luck, BB.

[Ian]

I don't think anyone would disagree with this. However, if we do end up getting an unprecedented 20 to 40 inches in a nina, then maybe someone should raise an eyebrow and have a look at his notebook.

Having said that, given the choice, I would bet that any team other than the Giants or Pats have a better chance of winning the super bowl next weekend than this forecast verifying.

But good luck, BB.

long-rangers on the whole were thoroughly owned this winter. still hard to believe much of it is more than snake oil sales.

[nw baltimore wx]

long-rangers on the whole were thoroughly owned this winter. still hard to believe much of it is more than snake oil sales.

I don't mind the predictions. It's some of the market knee-jerk reactions that make me shake my head.

If this thread drives up the price of gasoline...

[BethesdaWX]

Before I really comment on the matter, I'll read through your links and see what I can get from it. I think the sun affects things on multiple time scales that may give the impression that there are longer-term lags. For what we are discussing here and the time scales we are focusing on, I think the solar factor on AO, ENSO, pattern etc. is a lot more direct and not years. But I'll check everything out and let you know.

I think the harmonic nature / structure of the various cycles that exist will mean you can pick any point and say it lags to something. That's the beauty of the symmetry with these cycles.

Thanks a bunch. I really appriciate your imput, and enjoy learning and applying new knowledge whenever I can.

I did a statistical analysis awhile back on the lag hypothesis, but I cannot find the file for some reason.

Sorry to regurgitate the same old graphs, just that changes in the AP index that are well descernable over the base in activity seem to do very well. The highest AP spike in the record, in the early 1990s, correlates to the 1998 El Nino on the 6.5 year lag, the 2003 spike correlates perfectly in shape+length to the 2009/10 El Nino. Looking more carefully, the entire past decade seems to correlate to the AP index lagged 6.5yrs. I know some peer reviewed analysis have been done on this stuff, I did a more simple one awhile back.

[BethesdaWX]

I was discussing this thread with my husband (physical oceanographer) and he brought up looking at the harmonics as a possible research angle re: ENSO. the rest he thought was nonsense.

Did he give any specific reasoning? I'll pull a Trixie here and say....."What does physical oceanography have to due with atmospheric science!?" [thats a line you constantly pull on me, regarding Anthony Watts and his atmospheric science degree which is much more relavent here].

Aside from that, you know that the timelength the system takes to reach equilibrium in incoming and outgoing energies is basically what determines climate sensitivity to changes in radiative forcing...meaning an instantanious response and achievement of equilibrium in that [short] amount of time will result in a lower climate sensitivity to an increase in GHGes, which you constantly deride other members on, NON-scientifically, of course.

Or it depends exactly how you described the hypothesis to your hubby, knowing you I'm sure there was manipulation involved?

[usedtobe]

I read the Nuzhdina article and even they say that the correlations between enso and the PA index and wolf number are low. The .48 correlation between the Wolf number and nino 3-4 is low. I don't have the scatter diagram for that particular plot but have one for a similar one for a simiar correlation The correlation is just shy of .46, almost the same as the Nuzhdina article. Look at how big the spread is.

Now if you let the y axis be the temps in ninno 3-4 and the other represent the wolf number you get a feel for how the correlation would be little help in predicting enso. There just is too much spread.

Here's a minus .54.

Again there is so much spread your not going to be able to get much from it in terms of forecasting enso.

While these scatter diagram and regression lines are not from the wolf number data they have almost the same r so you can pretty get a feel for the spread. If I remember correctly, if you sqaure r it helps explain the variance.

Anyway, I'm dubious that the paper you show really says that the correlations are hihg enough to use in any forecast and have it result in much skill. Maybe a stat guru can chime in.

[BethesdaWX]

I read the Nuzhdina article and even they say that the correlations between enso and the PA index and wolf number are low. The .48 correlation between the Wolf number and nino 3-4 is low. I don't have the scatter diagram for that particular plot but have one for a similar one for a simiar correlation The correlation is just shy of .46, almost the same as the Nuzhdina article. Look at how big the spread is.

Now if you let the y axis be the temps in ninno 3-4 and the other represent the wolf number you get a feel for how the correlation would be little help in predicting enso. There just is too much spread.

Here's a minus .54.

Again there is so much spread your not going to be able to get much from it in terms of forecasting enso.

While these scatter diagram and regression lines are not from the wolf number data they have almost the same r so you can pretty get a feel for the spread. If I remember correctly, if you sqaure r it helps explain the variance.

Anyway, I'm dubious that the paper you show really says that the correlations are hihg enough to use in any forecast and have it result in much skill. Maybe a stat guru can chime in.

I think they mention a few important points on page 87-88, regarding now the sign of the IMF has significant impact on the relationship between the AP index and terrestrial climate signals/indices, and the correlative ability that comes along with it. The IMF cycle represents the 22yr Hale Cycle, where the directional IMF flips every solar cycle at it's max. The AMO/PDO do flip with the Hale cycle it seems, where the PDO flips every time the IMF goes S, while the AMO flips everytime the IMF goes N.

If legitimate that might suggest that atmospheric circulation patterns are the driver of the AMO/PDO, and would offer a theory as to why the AO/NAO, PDO, AMO and AP index/Magnetic Sun all seem to correlate fairly well with one another.

[winterymix]

Slope of the line before and after the event you selected are not at substantially the same comparing chart patterns. Before attempting to analyze, you need to remove your own biases because they will be challenged and discredited. It certainly seems that the larger scale pattern has reinfoced itself throughout the season and is sustained. You can rightfuly call a winter turnaround when the pattern no longer reverts back to standing waves that fail to give high latitude blocking, fail to give a sustained (-) NAO, fail to give a sustained West coast ridge teleconnecting with a standing

East coast trough, etc. The true large pattern is in equilibrium with brief attempts to change and the assertive return to the seasonal pattern. The experts here suggest that charged particled blasts from the sun may exert short and medium term effects but not pattern changing dominancy.

[BethesdaWX]

Slope of the line before and after the event you selected are not at substantially the same comparing chart patterns. Before attempting to analyze, you need to remove your own biases because they will be challenged and discredited. It certainly seems that the larger scale pattern has reinfoced itself throughout the season and is sustained. You can rightfuly call a winter turnaround when the pattern no longer reverts back to standing waves that fail to give high latitude blocking, fail to give a sustained (-) NAO, fail to give a sustained West coast ridge teleconnecting with a standing

East coast trough, etc. The true large pattern is in equilibrium with brief attempts to change and the assertive return to the seasonal pattern. The experts here suggest that charged particled blasts from the sun may exert short and medium term effects but not pattern changing dominancy.

Well thats the thing, the slopes shouldn't be the same, as the ONI operates over a detrended mean, while the AP index can vary significantly on shorter timescales. As for the global temp, I wouldn't try to correlate the longer term trend in global temps with the AP index because the mechanism operates via equilibrium, and the IMF also needs to be taken into account, assuming the hypothesis is correct. The correlation there, assuming the hypothesis is correct, would work like a pot/stove relationship.

Imagine, to boil a pot of water, you initially put the flame on high, then lower it to medium. Despite the decrease in the strength of the flame, the water will still warm to equilibrium [boiling]. Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23 were all very strong cycles, and through cycle 23 was weaker, it still was exceptionally strong relative to pre-modern max cycles, so we saw the expected leveling in temps beginning in January 2002, lasting through 2010. The IMF also went south in Solar Cycle 23.

2010, in my opinion, was the peak of our warm period, and I feel we will see a significant cooling over the next decade or so. This is the RSS system measuring temps in the LT.

[usedtobe]

I think they mention a few important points on page 87-88, regarding now the sign of the IMF has significant impact on the relationship between the AP index and terrestrial climate signals/indices, and the correlative ability that comes along with it. The IMF cycle represents the 22yr Hale Cycle, where the directional IMF flips every solar cycle at it's max. The AMO/PDO do flip with the Hale cycle it seems, where the PDO flips every time the IMF goes S, while the AMO flips everytime the IMF goes N.

If legitimate that might suggest that atmospheric circulation patterns are the driver of the AMO/PDO, and would offer a theory as to why the AO/NAO, PDO, AMO and AP index/Magnetic Sun all seem to correlate fairly well with one another.

You totally missed my point and I don't think it is worth pursuing further discussion as we're obviously going to continue to disagree.

[BethesdaWX]

You totally missed my point and I don't think it is worth pursuing further discussion as we're obviously going to continue to disagree.

I think you mentioned how the correlation between ENSO and the AP index [given in the paper] is "weak", and that we should expect a higher correlation to achieve predictive ability, and determine whether or not the AP index is the causative mechanism behind the ENSO process?

I mentioned the IMF because the correlations seem to work much better in the S-ward pointing IMFs, at least in the satellite era. I don't think you should be able to find a high correlation in a noisy system of intercorrelations and internal amplifying/de-amplifying mechanisms.

I think this decade will be a crucial test for the hypothesis.

[gymengineer]

Thanks,

It is for the DC/Balti corridor, specifically, but I do not think the pattern will be conductive for the SNE cutoff, like we saw with 2/5 - 2/6 storm.

I don't understand this. How could a scientific "method" that can get you so confident on a specifc snowfall range-- way beyond just a pattern--for DC not be able to get you to the same bombastic specificity for anywhere else in the country?