My thoughts on the winter turnaround

[BethesdaWX]

You invented the sun-earth time-response formula?

I came up with it, yes. I don't mind being trolled over it because I'm very confident it will verify.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS two week verification:

Someone yesterday said the Euro mjo forecasts were much better, but I don't know how to get those. Are they available for free?

[mappy]

I came up with it, yes. I don't mind being trolled over it because I'm very confident it will verify.

Can you explain what the actual formula is and how you can go about checking for verification?

[Ellinwood]

Someone yesterday said the Euro mjo forecasts were much better, but I don't know how to get those. Are they available for free?

They're all on CPC site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[mattie g]

This is chickensh*t. If you want to have a legit scientific conversation with him and explain WHY you think his theories are wrong, then have at it. I see Ellinwood asking him specific questions without jackass responses like this. He (BB) is going into specific detail about what he thinks and WHY he thinks that way. Now, he may be wrong. I certainly couldn't begin to debate him on those things, but at least I don't impugn his work, and then back my own assertions up with nothing.

This goes for all of the rest of you in here doing the same thing. Now, if you want to bash him for his seemingly fantastic weather obs, fire away. But he's putting a lot of effort and thought and explanation into his theories. If you can shoot them down with your own, supported by your own research, then, by all means, do so.

Can't say I disagree with this post in general.

[BethesdaWX]

This is chickensh*t. If you want to have a legit scientific conversation with him and explain WHY you think his theories are wrong, then have at it. I see Ellinwood asking him specific questions without jackass responses like this. He (BB) is going into specific detail about what he thinks and WHY he thinks that way. Now, he may be wrong. I certainly couldn't begin to debate him on those things, but at least I don't impune his work, and then back my own assertions up with nothing.

This goes for all of the rest of you in here doing the same thing. Now, if you want to bash him for his seemingly fantastic weather obs, fire away. But he's putting a lot of effort and thought and explanation into his theories. If you can shoot them down with your own, supported by your own research, then, by all means, do so.

Thankyou for the support, really appriciate it.

[JamieOber]

Excuse me, does anyone have a forecast for Simpsonville MD for 2/17? Thanks in advance.

[Feb]

Still looks good in the long term. Even some signs of split flow just offshore of SOCAL, which could be interesting later in the month, regarding disturbances crossing the south.

Todays 12z Euro ensembles. Good sign as we move into February. Instead of mocking BB, maybe it's time to pay more attention to him.

[H2O]

Todays 12z Euro ensembles. Good sign as we move into February. Instead of mocking BB, maybe it's time to pay more attention to him.

Hard to take seriously when trying to say the mjo is doing what he thought and it is shown to be to exact opposite.

[BethesdaWX]

Thankyou for the thread, Ian.

we did, in the CC forum. BB has been banned from there so he's bringing his crap here.

the stuff he says is, and let me be 100% clear about this: TOTAL BS NOT ROOTED IN ACTUAL SCIENCE. you cannot actually refute total made up crap. ocean solar inertia or whatever he calls it? DOES NOT EXIST.

I am tired of refuting your BS, stop making random unsubstantiated claims that deny reality. I posted numerous peer reviewed studies on the matter...if you knew anything about actual science, you'd know the difference between the AP Index+Geomagnetic Field, and TSI, which you obviously didn't/don't judging by your responses in the CC forum. Who posts smoothed TSI graphs and compares them to surface temperatures? Maybe that'd work up in the thermosphere, but not way down here.

Are you denying the Ocean's Thermal inertia is greater than that of the atmosphere? Do you know what 'thermal inertia' means? Do you understand how clouds (albedo) act to create almost ALL of the "chaos" in the climate system? Do you know why this is?

[mappy]

Can you explain what the actual formula is and how you can go about checking for verification?

BB - this may have gotten lost with the thread move... I'm interested to hear more about your sun-earth time-response formula and how you can verify it.

thanks

[BethesdaWX]

Hard to take seriously when trying to say the mjo is doing what he thought and it is shown to be to exact opposite.

BS that I can refute, want me to bring back my post from December 29th? It is [so far] doing exactly what I predicted it would be doing. Dude, trolling me with lies is the lowest of the low.

[Feb]

Hard to take seriously when trying to say the mjo is doing what he thought and it is shown to be to exact opposite.

Maybe we should wait until the February/ March period is over and see how his forecast turns out. I would hate to crucify a forecast on January 26th that is issued for February and March.

[mappy]

Maybe we should wait until the February/ March period is over and see how his forecast turns out. I would hate to crucify a forecast on January 26th that is issued for February and March.

well some of us are actually trying to understand how he came up with that forecast. Anyone can pull a forecast out of their ass and say "here you go!"

I really want to see this formula he created.

[BethesdaWX]

post your formula, Einsten.

I take the lagged AP/AA index values, and superimpose them on the current SOI/MEI values + their trends, to determine the future of the AO/AAO. The MJO is basically just an index representing tropical upward motion/convection, which is determined by SSTAs and atmospheric circulation patterns, so I use SSTAs from 30N to 30S, and based on my hypothesis that atmospheric kinetic energy is the preceding forcing, I use the lagged AP/AA index values again in contrast to current SSTAs to determine their future changes.

[Stebo]

I am curious what this formula is, if it is a legitimate formula it should be posted and discussed more thoroughly.

[Ian]

Maybe we should wait until the February/ March period is over and see how his forecast turns out. I would hate to crucify a forecast on January 26th that is issued for February and March.

even if he verifies how do we know it's not random luck?

if he verifies and then verifies again in the future using the same method maybe he's onto something. bb's history strongly suggests he likes attention more than anything.

[Feb]

well some of us are actually trying to understand how he came up with that forecast. Anyone can pull a forecast out of their ass and say "here you go!"

I really want to see this formula he created.

Trust me, i know. My local TV mets do it all the time up here.

[Feb]

even if he verifies how do we know it's not random luck?

if he verifies and then verifies again in the future using the same method maybe he's onto something. bb's history strongly suggests he likes attention more than anything.

Agreed 100%. Anyone can get lucky and maybe that is what he will do. But if he does end up right a lot more people will pay attention to him next winter. Then the pressure is on.

[H2O]

BS that I can refute, want me to bring back my post from December 29th? It is [so far] doing exactly what I predicted it would be doing. Dude, trolling me with lies is the lowest of the low.

You posted this:

It actually is 100% real, it is something I came up with, that so far has worked for me, I guess down the road we'll see how it works. MJO trend on GFS is continuing in the predicted direction though:

Then Ellinwood posted this:

GFS two week verification:

Moving the goal posts by now saying it was your Dec 29th post?

[mappy]

Agreed 100%. Anyone can get lucky and maybe that is what he will do. But if he does end up right a lot more people will pay attention to him next winter. Then the pressure is on.

We shall see about that.

[usedtobe]

Didn't Don Sutherland post correlations in the climate forum that were so low that he concluded that was little impact of the sun on enso? I vaguely remember reading your replies to him and your moving on to it being the rate of change or something like that.

His quotes, "I ran the monthly values (using a 6-year lag) against the monthly ENSO R3.4 SSTs and SSTAs and received very low coefficients of correlation for both"

He followed up with another post.

"The correlation is higher but still very low. My guess is that the best one might be able to do is to conclude that there might be a various ENSO event 5-7 years down the road, but the AP Index does not allow for much precision in terms of timing or magnitude."

"Whether one uses the year-to-year change or the annual values, the coefficient of correlation is low."

"I used dummy variables (1 for El Niño, 0 for Neutral, -1 for La Niña) using AP Index change and AP Index values as independent variables and also received low correlations. I don't believe the AP Index can provide a good indication concerning the timing or magnitude of an ENSO event. The best one might be able to do is to suggest that a given ENSO event might be likely in 5-7 years, but that's probably the extent of it. If one is trying to forecast ENSO over the next 6-12 months (an important, but not exclusive, component for trying to guess global and regional anomalies for seasons and annually), the modeling is probably a far better guide. Even the modeling, at this point in time, is subject to fairly significant uncertainty. In sum, while the AP Index might provide some insight in some situations, I don't believe it's a breakthrough that would greatly improve ENSO forecasting.

I was curious, so I asked for the numbers. Unfortunately, running the correlations proved disappointing, to say the least. "

"I tested several possible independent variables: change in AP: Index, AP Index #, AP Index dumming (-1 for decline/+1 for increase) against ENSO R3.4 anomalies, change in R3.4 anomalies, and dummy variables for ENSO events."

Essentially he looked and could find little in the science that you see to think works.

Even if there were higher correlations, the question would be the mechanism that actually causes the change in SSTA. I think there are the chicken and egg type questions about which leads the atmosphere or the ocean and since the changes to the Walker Circulation drive enso it seems like the atmosphere starts the process. The upwelling that keeps the east pac cool shuts down when the easterly flow weakens.

[mappy]

I take the lagged AP/AA index values, and superimpose them on the current SOI/MEI values + their trends, to determine the future of the AO/AAO. The MJO is basically just an index representing tropical upward motion/convection, which is determined by SSTAs and atmospheric circulation patterns, so I use SSTAs from 30N to 30S, and based on my hypothesis that atmospheric kinetic energy is the preceding forcing, I use the lagged AP/AA index values again in contrast to current SSTAs to determine their future changes.

How do you verify that the above process works? Have you used it this winter?

[BethesdaWX]

even if he verifies how do we know it's not random luck?

if he verifies and then verifies again in the future using the same method maybe he's onto something. bb's history strongly suggests he likes attention more than anything.

We will never 'know' it's not random luck, even if it works every year for the rest of time it could still be luck. This isn't an attention grab.

Past history suggests it's an unlikely outcome which could be a reason to at least pay some attention to it, if it works this time.

[BethesdaWX]

How do you verify that the above process works? Have you used it this winter?

I started using it this winter, and it with the trend likes in sync and not steep, I interpret that as a "stable thermal state", which = +AO. Visa versa for the -AO.

It suggested a warmer pattern overall from early/mid September through the beginning of February, and colder from mid February through May, but admittedly the +AO regime was stronger than I thought it would be, random noise is frequent though when it comes to qualitative analysis.

[FrederickWX]

you could wait forever--nonsense can't verify.

I, for one, look forward to my 20-40" of snow!!

[BethesdaWX]

Didn't Don Sutherland post correlations in the climate forum that were so low that he concluded that was little impact of the sun on enso? I vaguely remember reading your replies to him and your moving on to it being the rate of change or something like that.

His quotes, "I ran the monthly values (using a 6-year lag) against the monthly ENSO R3.4 SSTs and SSTAs and received very low coefficients of correlation for both"

He followed up with another post.

"The correlation is higher but still very low. My guess is that the best one might be able to do is to conclude that there might be a various ENSO event 5-7 years down the road, but the AP Index does not allow for much precision in terms of timing or magnitude."

"Whether one uses the year-to-year change or the annual values, the coefficient of correlation is low."

"I used dummy variables (1 for El Niño, 0 for Neutral, -1 for La Niña) using AP Index change and AP Index values as independent variables and also received low correlations. I don't believe the AP Index can provide a good indication concerning the timing or magnitude of an ENSO event. The best one might be able to do is to suggest that a given ENSO event might be likely in 5-7 years, but that's probably the extent of it. If one is trying to forecast ENSO over the next 6-12 months (an important, but not exclusive, component for trying to guess global and regional anomalies for seasons and annually), the modeling is probably a far better guide. Even the modeling, at this point in time, is subject to fairly significant uncertainty. In sum, while the AP Index might provide some insight in some situations, I don't believe it's a breakthrough that would greatly improve ENSO forecasting.

I was curious, so I asked for the numbers. Unfortunately, running the correlations proved disappointing, to say the least. "

"I tested several possible independent variables: change in AP: Index, AP Index #, AP Index dumming (-1 for decline/+1 for increase) against ENSO R3.4 anomalies, change in R3.4 anomalies, and dummy variables for ENSO events."

Essentially he looked and could find little in the science that you see to think works.

Even if there were higher correlations, the question would be the mechanism that actually causes the change in SSTA. I think there are the chicken and egg type questions about which leads the atmosphere or the ocean and since the changes to the Walker Circulation drive enso it seems like the atmosphere starts the process. The upwelling that keeps the east pac cool shuts down when the easterly flow weakens.

I don't agree with DonS's method of analysis, and niether do the peer reviewed studies I posted...for 2 reasons.

1) ENSO peaks around the flip of the new year, so comparing it on a year to year basis really scews the mean

2) The correlation also tends to work much better during active AP index periods, or during the 'max', which occurs after the polar fields flip. During periods of wild, erratic, or very low magnetic activity, the correlation is harder to work out. This is because with little variation in the forcing that determines ENSO, slight perturbations can have a larger effect against the background signal.

[Srain]

I don't agree with DonS's method of analysis, and niether do the peer reviewed studies I posted...for 2 reasons.

1) ENSO peaks around the flip of the new year, so comparing it on a year to year basis really scews the mean

2) The correlation also tends to work much better during active AP index periods, or during the 'max', which occurs after the polar fields flip. During periods of wild, erratic, or very low magnetic activity, the correlation is harder to work out. This is because with little variation in the forcing that determines ENSO, slight perturbations can have a larger effect against the background signal.

I'll pay attention to a gentleman that has more class and experience in his little pinky than a young twenty something that has no class, experience or tack...

[BethesdaWX]

I'll pay attention to a gentleman that has more class and experience in his little pinky than a young twenty something that has no class, experience or tack...

Ok, I definitely don't expect to be taken seriously at this point, so it is to be expected. As for the correlation, that is performed extensively in the peer reviewed studies I posted. I don't have the time to go into uber specifics myself.

[Feb]

Ok, I definitely don't expect to be taken seriously at this point, so it is to be expected. As for the correlation, that is performed extensively in the peer reviewed studies I posted. I don't have the time to go into uber specifics.

People seem to forget, that while Don S has done very well this winter, he busted the last two winters with his February and March calls. So while some people have a lot of knowledge in their little pinky, Mother Nature still gives them the finger.