My thoughts on the winter turnaround

[BethesdaWX]

Anything we get over the next 10-15 days is just a bonus in my opinion,

I'm not changing my thoughts at all:

1) Transition period is January 30th to February 7th, pattern will be "hit and run" here in the MA. Models will begin showing 'fantasies' in the long range starting on the 5th-7th period. MJO shifts into octants 6 and 7 as upward motion becomes eastward predominate. SSTAs in the EPAC and tropical Atlantic warm, Atlantic ENSO being in La Nina mode will shut down a complete loop, though.

2) MJO makes the first healthy transition into Octant 8 mid Month, pattern becomes rapidly better as +PNA strengthens, vortex in Alaska takes a hit and retrogrades Westward, ridging pushes to the pole or near it by the 20th. Trough develops from the great lakes, TN valley, south-central US, to the east coast.

3). Strong, full-phasing coastal storms begin in earnest between the 12th and the 23rd, cold air will be easily attainable and adequate in availability. MJO will push into octant 1.

4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

5). There should be a 10 day 'break' from late month to March 5th or so.

[WxUSAF]

4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

Taking the George W. Bush route of "never admit error" I see. Good on 'ya. We'll see if you go down with the ship. As Don S. posted in the main forum, that would not only be unprecendented in a La Nina Feb/March, but would totally blow the water out of the previous record holder. I believe he posted mean and median snowfall amounts for DC and Balt in La Nina Februarys in that main forum thread and it was...1-3"?

[mappy]

Anything we get over the next 10-15 days is just a bonus in my opinion,

I'm not changing my thoughts at all:

1) Transition period is January 30th to February 7th, pattern will be "hit and run" here in the MA. Models will begin showing 'fantasies' in the long range starting on the 5th-7th period. MJO shifts into octants 6 and 7 as upward motion becomes eastward predominate. SSTAs in the EPAC and tropical Atlantic warm, Atlantic ENSO being in La Nina mode will shut down a complete loop, though.

2) MJO makes the first healthy transition into Octant 8 mid Month, pattern becomes rapidly better as +PNA strengthens, vortex in Alaska takes a hit and retrogrades Westward, ridging pushes to the pole or near it by the 20th. Trough develops from the great lakes, TN valley, south-central US, to the east coast.

3). Strong, full-phasing coastal storms begin in earnest between the 12th and the 23rd, cold air will be easily attainable and adequate in availability. MJO will push into octant 1.

4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

5). There should be a 10 day 'break' from late month to March 5th or so.

some bold calls

[Bob Chill]

I believe he posted mean and median snowfall amounts for DC and Balt in La Nina Februarys in that main forum thread and it was...1-3"?

1-3" and 1-3' aren't that different.

[NaoPos]

Anything we get over the next 10-15 days is just a bonus in my opinion,

I'm not changing my thoughts at all:

1) Transition period is January 30th to February 7th, pattern will be "hit and run" here in the MA. Models will begin showing 'fantasies' in the long range starting on the 5th-7th period. MJO shifts into octants 6 and 7 as upward motion becomes eastward predominate. SSTAs in the EPAC and tropical Atlantic warm, Atlantic ENSO being in La Nina mode will shut down a complete loop, though.

2) MJO makes the first healthy transition into Octant 8 mid Month, pattern becomes rapidly better as +PNA strengthens, vortex in Alaska takes a hit and retrogrades Westward, ridging pushes to the pole or near it by the 20th. Trough develops from the great lakes, TN valley, south-central US, to the east coast.

3). Strong, full-phasing coastal storms begin in earnest between the 12th and the 23rd, cold air will be easily attainable and adequate in availability. MJO will push into octant 1.

4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

5). There should be a 10 day 'break' from late month to March 5th or so.

[WxUSAF]

Just for giggles I checked out 850's and precip for that system. It does spit out some precip in our parts and the 850's are plenty cold. Both of which are highly questionable but doesn't matter because it's in fantasyland and we all know what happens when the 850 low tracks to our north before jumping.

True dat.

One thing I have learned from staring at models that last 5 years is that precip on Miller B's is almost always modeled too far S&E and not far enough N&W with miller A's.

True dat too.

This time frame is of interest because there have been many variations of troughing in our parts. Heck, there was arctic air overhead in the lr on the gfs a few days ago. Give us a +pna and trough in these parts first and everything else can work itself out (for better or for worse).

Yeah, a +PNA giving just a bit below climo temps is enough right now. We're in our wheelhouse snow-wise, so it doesn't take a magical confluence of circumstances to give us a legit snow threat. Still, we can't even get the basic requirements to line up this winter really. The signs of a persistent pattern change are pretty much gone again and I wouldn't expect them to verify even if they did return on the long-range progs. IMO, any more snow we see this winter is just going to be small events during a transient +PNA, maybe a clipper when we get a trough, overrunning, etc. Best case is probably a coastal wave along a cold front after we get a Lakes cutter, so the cold air's in place and we're able to get a low-range SECS out of it.

[WxUSAF]

1-3" and 1-3' aren't that different.

In astrophysics, it's only the order of magnitude of the order of magnitude of the error that really matters.

[eurojosh]

4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

I'll take that bet. Say, $10 per inch over/under 30"?

[H2O]

Anything we get over the next 10-15 days is just a bonus in my opinion,

I'm not changing my thoughts at all:

1) Transition period is January 30th to February 7th, pattern will be "hit and run" here in the MA. Models will begin showing 'fantasies' in the long range starting on the 5th-7th period. MJO shifts into octants 6 and 7 as upward motion becomes eastward predominate. SSTAs in the EPAC and tropical Atlantic warm, Atlantic ENSO being in La Nina mode will shut down a complete loop, though.

2) MJO makes the first healthy transition into Octant 8 mid Month, pattern becomes rapidly better as +PNA strengthens, vortex in Alaska takes a hit and retrogrades Westward, ridging pushes to the pole or near it by the 20th. Trough develops from the great lakes, TN valley, south-central US, to the east coast.

3). Strong, full-phasing coastal storms begin in earnest between the 12th and the 23rd, cold air will be easily attainable and adequate in availability. MJO will push into octant 1.

4). Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

5). There should be a 10 day 'break' from late month to March 5th or so.

This reads more like a weenie wish list. This is what we all want to see develop and it has been anticipated for some time. Problem is that it has yet to come to fruition. 30" is still a bold call and saying that SSTAs warming will show immediate impact on the atmosphere is a stretch IMO.

Feb 12-Apr 5 is 50ish days so we need to avg about .5" of snow a day to get to 30" Good luck

[WxUSAF]

Feb 12-Apr 5 is 50ish days so we need to avg about .5" of snow a day to get to 30" Good luck

Just need two days...a HECS and a MECS. Nothing too crazy there. Or 5 SECS, or 3 MECS. We're only talking about having a top 2-3 month for snow ever during a moderate La Nina with persistent +AO/+NAO.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Anything we get over the next 10-15 days is just a bonus in my opinion,

I'm not changing my thoughts at all:

Total snow in the DC/Baltimore corridor from February 12th to April 5th will be 20-40", with one storm late month tracking farther east and shafting folks west of the blue ridge.

Wow! Are you sure you don't mean 2-4"? May the force be with you.

[mattie g]

I'm not changing my thoughts at all:

At least we can't call you Schettino.

[MDstorm]

Taking the George W. Bush route of "never admit error" I see. Good on 'ya. We'll see if you go down with the ship. As Don S. posted in the main forum, that would not only be unprecendented in a La Nina Feb/March, but would totally blow the water out of the previous record holder. I believe he posted mean and median snowfall amounts for DC and Balt in La Nina Februarys in that main forum thread and it was...1-3"?

Statistics are what they are. However, I doubt that the mean snowfall amounts for DC/BWI for December + January in a weak to mod Nina is 2 inches. Yet that is where we sit now. So, whereas the first part of winter has "under-performed " the statistics, the rest of the winter could over-perform. Although 30 inches seems to be a stretch. Maybe BB is the new Chuck--the most historic Feb/March period upcoming.

MDstorm

[mappy]

6). the MFOOmB* index goes off the charts.

*monkeys fly out of my butt

He is just going to come back and say you don't know what you are talking about.

[WxUSAF]

Statistics are what they are. However, I doubt that the mean snowfall amounts for DC/BWI for December + January in a weak to mod Nina is 2 inches. Yet that is where we sit now. So, whereas the first part of winter has "under-performed " the statistics, the rest of the winter could over-perform. Although 30 inches seems to be a stretch. Maybe BB is the new Chuck--the most historic Feb/March period upcoming.

MDstorm

Certainly. When the mean and median essentially amount to 1 small event, there is obviously a huge spread of reasonable outcomes. There's a wide bell curve. I'd say a broad range for realistic potential snowfall amounts for this Feb/March for our area is probably 0-10". Even above 10" is not completely unrealistic, there's always a chance for one good MECS amidst an otherwise terrible period. But when you get beyond that 10-12" range, you're talking multiple SECS or a MECS plus another storm. It gets really hard in such an unfavorable pattern to roll 7s over and over.

[usedtobe]

Certainly. When the mean and median essentially amount to 1 small event, there is obviously a huge spread of reasonable outcomes. There's a wide bell curve. I'd say a broad range for realistic potential snowfall amounts for this Feb/March for our area is probably 0-10". Even above 10" is not completely unrealistic, there's always a chance for one good MECS amidst an otherwise terrible period. But when you get beyond that 10-12" range, you're talking multiple SECS or a MECS plus another storm. It gets really hard in such an unfavorable pattern to roll 7s over and over.

If it were in an el nino, I'd feel differently. Major storms in la nina years have been tough to come by. There have only been 14 four inch events with the ONI below -0.6 so I think 0-10 is pretty realistic range but that going into any month we have a greater chance for a below normal month than an above normal one unless the pattern is favorable going into the month since the median is below the mean. I also don't think because we had too crappy months that means we'll beat the odds the next month. I think it is like flipping a coin, the next time you flip it, the odds are the same as they were before the last flip. If the pattern changes, then the odds might change but in a bad patern. the pattern is bad for a reason.

[BethesdaWX]

Taking the George W. Bush route of "never admit error" I see. Good on 'ya. We'll see if you go down with the ship. As Don S. posted in the main forum, that would not only be unprecendented in a La Nina Feb/March, but would totally blow the water out of the previous record holder. I believe he posted mean and median snowfall amounts for DC and Balt in La Nina Februarys in that main forum thread and it was...1-3"?

LOL, yeah I'm definitely aware that it would be 1500% unprecedented, I ran my sun-earth time-response formula 3 additional times to be sure I wasn't fooking something up, and I now feel confident in this forecast. If I'm wrong, I hope I am trolled big time because I'd deserve it.

IMO it is the balance and processing interaction between the thermal and kinetic portions of the total energy budget, driven by the Sun, that control the weather/climate, which lead to a systematic 6-7yr lag between solar forcing and ENSO/Global temperature.

I feel you can predict ENSO, the AMO/PDO, and the Global temp with it too...ans it works. You don't even need models, just the Geomagnetic Sun. The PDO and AMO are forced by large scale atmospheric changes driven by the Sun, and it can be shown.

ENSO/Global temp lagging the Sun by 6-7 years...Century Geomag Storm in 2003 = Major El Nino 2009/10.

Long term, I feel it is the background solar wind that drives the global temp, on a 7 year lag, once taking the PDO into account:

[Ellinwood]

I have a legitimite question for you, BB...

Why does it take 6-7 years for the Earth's atmosphere to see the affects of the solar activity you mentioned?

[eurojosh]

LOL, yeah I'm definitely aware that it would be 1500% unprecedented, I ran my sun-earth time-response formula 3 additional times to be sure I wasn't fooking something up, and I now feel confident in this forecast. If I'm wrong, I hope I am trolled big time because I'd deserve it.

IMO it is the balance and processing interaction between the thermal and kinetic portions of the total energy budget, driven by the Sun, that control the weather/climate, which lead to a systematic 6-7yr lag between solar forcing and ENSO/Global temperature.

I feel you can predict ENSO, the AMO/PDO, and the Global temp with it too...ans it works. You don't even need models, just the Geomagnetic Sun. The PDO and AMO are forced by large scale atmospheric changes driven by the Sun, and it can be shown.

ENSO/Global temp lagging the Sun by 6-7 years...Century Geomag Storm in 2003 = Major El Nino 2009/10.

Long term, I feel it is the background solar wind that drives the global temp, on a 7 year lag, once taking the PDO into account:

That makes no sense at all. But, since you're so sure, I reiterate my offer to put your money where your mouth is. $10 per inch over/under 30 inches.

Didn't think so....

[BethesdaWX]

I have a legitimite question for you, BB...

Why does it take 6-7 years for the Earth's atmosphere to see the affects of the solar activity you mentioned?

Thethermal response occurs 6-7 years later as a result of the Ocean's thermal inertia, superimposed against the atmospheric system body, which contains less energy than the oceans by...alot. Think of the atmosphere as the "messenger", where forcings are processed through to meet equilibrium with the ocean energy system/total system state. However, that has to be done through the atmospheric system, which is currently operating under present-time solar influence, against oceanic lag which must be compensated for. So a "decision of operation" must be reached in the total system state.

This is why I feel lagged magnetic activity, and the current solar flux, must be used in relative tandom. The Magnetic Sun drives ENSO and the global temp, in my view, via this mechanism

Sun ---> AO/NAO/AAO ---> Cloud Cover re-positioning/configuration---> Re-distribution of heat/temperature ---> wind budget alteration ---> ENSO.

[Ellinwood]

The thermal response is 6-7 years later via the Ocean's thermal inertia superimposed against the atmospheric system body, which contains less energy than the oceans by...alot. Think of the atmosphere as the "messenger", where forcings are processed through to meet equilibrium with the ocean energy system. However, that has to be done through the atmospheric system which is currently operating under present-time solar influence, against oceanic lag which must be compensated for. So a "decision of operation" must be reached in the total system state.

This is why I feel lagged magnetic activity, and the current solar flux, must be used in relative tandom. The Magnetic Sun drives ENSO and the global temp, in my view, via this mechanism

Sun ---> AO/NAO/AAO ---> Cloud Cover re-positioning/configuration---> Re-distribution of heat/temperature ---> wind budget alteration ---> ENSO.

Are there any publications that show this?

[BethesdaWX]

Are there any publications that show this?

Studies that correlate the Magnetic Sun to ENSO & the Global temp? Yes...plenty, but most is qualitative.

Magnetic Sun and Temperature correlation http://sait.oat.ts.a...I..76..969G.pdf

Long term variation & the Magnetic Sun and Heliosphere: http://www.eiscat.rl...000JA000115.pdf

Correlation between ENSO and Geomagnetic Activity: http://hal.archives-...s-2-83-2002.pdf

ENSO and the orientation of the subsolar meridian during SSC [sudden Storm Commencement] http://hal-insu.arch...r/hal-00296910/

Magnetic sun and Climate: http://www.sciencedi...012821X06007667

[eurojosh]

Thethermal response occurs 6-7 years later as a result of the Ocean's thermal inertia, superimposed against the atmospheric system body, which contains less energy than the oceans by...alot. Think of the atmosphere as the "messenger", where forcings are processed through to meet equilibrium with the ocean energy system/total system state. However, that has to be done through the atmospheric system, which is currently operating under present-time solar influence, against oceanic lag which must be compensated for. So a "decision of operation" must be reached in the total system state.

This is why I feel lagged magnetic activity, and the current solar flux, must be used in relative tandom. The Magnetic Sun drives ENSO and the global temp, in my view, via this mechanism

Sun ---> AO/NAO/AAO ---> Cloud Cover re-positioning/configuration---> Re-distribution of heat/temperature ---> wind budget alteration ---> ENSO.

Interesting. Also, apparently if you drive a Delorean at 88mph and hit it with lightning while simultaneously engaging the flux capacitor, time travel is possible.

[mitchnick]

I'll leave the thread now to avoid a firestorm, but honestly there won't be much going on for the next 2 weeks anyway, not much to talk about.

my guess is your parting thoughts are probably correct, and I don't need a specific reason

[mappy]

Is this real?

sun-earth time-response formula

[BethesdaWX]

Is this real?

sun-earth time-response formula

It actually is 100% real, it is something I came up with, that so far has worked for me, I guess down the road we'll see how it works. MJO trend on GFS is continuing in the predicted direction though:

[mappy]

It actually is 100% real, it is something I came up with, that so far has worked for me, I guess down the road we'll see how it works. MJO trend on GFS is continuing in the predicted direction though:

You invented the sun-earth time-response formula?

[Ellinwood]

It actually is 100% real, it is something I came up with, that so far has worked for me, I guess down the road we'll see how it works. MJO trend on GFS is continuing in the predicted direction though:

GFS two week verification:

[WinterWxLuvr]

i agree...it should be put in the science fiction forum of something. Its nothing but clutter in our forum and he is terrible lol

This is chickensh*t. If you want to have a legit scientific conversation with him and explain WHY you think his theories are wrong, then have at it. I see Ellinwood asking him specific questions without jackass responses like this. He (BB) is going into specific detail about what he thinks and WHY he thinks that way. Now, he may be wrong. I certainly couldn't begin to debate him on those things, but at least I don't impune his work, and then back my own assertions up with nothing.

This goes for all of the rest of you in here doing the same thing. Now, if you want to bash him for his seemingly fantastic weather obs, fire away. But he's putting a lot of effort and thought and explanation into his theories. If you can shoot them down with your own, supported by your own research, then, by all means, do so.

[mappy]

Continuing in projected direction = total opposite of what was forecasted