Riptide Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Sounds like "more of the same", with a non-cooperating NAO and la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I was defending two friends and didn't realize it was a joke. Not to pile on so much, but I didn't see it as a joke either. In the time I was at NCEP, I know those guys at the medium range desk have a tough job much of the time. Especially given how the guidance has been this winter! I never was on the "hot seat" in terms of having to put a forecast on the line like that, but I can still respect the years of expertise they bring to the table. Nobody is there to say "how can we hype up the snow weenies..mwaaa ha ha<insert Dr. Evil laugh>!!" They're professionals, making the best judgement that they can with the information available. Sometimes, it's really tough to sift through what that information is telling you. (Having done some forecasting years ago, I know well what that's like). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 You ask and you shall receive. First, you're basically correct....and from a scientific (and design) standpoint, every member should be an equally likely outcome. However, the GEFS system does have one quirk relative to the other major operational centers that can lead to some correlative skill characteristics by "member number" (albeit with a 24 hour lag). The GEFS initial perturbations are applied using something called an ensemble transform (rescaled) method, which for all intents and purposes is a variant of breeding. For each cycle (00, 06, 12, 18), there is actually an 80 member ensemble of short (06h) forecasts. Those 80 forecast perturbations are then rescaled (shrunk) to represent initial condition perturbations (they are also reorthogonalized). From the 80 initial perturbations, only 20 are selected and integrated out as part of the EPS. The problem is that the selection process isn't random: 00 UTC : members 01-20 06 UTC : members 21-40 12 UTC : members 41-60 18 UTC : members 61-80 I guess this was was chosen to try and maintain "forecast continuity". The naming convention for the products does not actually line up with the member number within the perturbation cycling. In other words, member NN" is not the same cycled "member NN" between each of the 4 cycles/day. I suppose then it's possible through the breeding and selection process there could be relationships between the members (with a 24h lag though, not from cycle to cycle). This has become less likely now that they have implemented stochastic noise in the ensemble model integration. Thanks guys. I was wondering about the names and if they were the same every run. I guess that explains why each run at least this year, seems to indicate a different outcome on the three temperature maps (days 1-5; 6-10; and 11-15) that accompany each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I was defending two friends and didn't realize it was a joke. meh to internet boards I hate e-mails too this world is going to he!! because of the lack of personal contact, and I'm not kidding about that but we'll survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z euro has a storm hr 144 in miss. some nice cad showing up in va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z euro has a storm hr 144 in miss. some nice cad showing up in va. Lol. Euro as close to having a storm as it has so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z euro has a storm hr 144 in miss. some nice cad showing up in va. Talk to me Midlo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 hr 156 look like some frozen stuff to start then 1 low heads up into eastern ky. and another broad area of low pressure on the south east coast looks miller b-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 hr 156 look like some frozen stuff to start then 1 low heads up into eastern ky. and another broad area of low pressure on the south east coast looks miller b-ish Sounds like a redeveloper... is the H strong to our north or weak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I don't think latest the GEFS could get any better in the LR, wow http://raleighwx.ame...alyNH_Loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 hr 156 look like some frozen stuff to start then 1 low heads up into eastern ky. and another broad area of low pressure on the south east coast looks miller b-ish The primary is too "strong". There are a number of ways to improve the solution but we would need improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 weak low hardly any precip some light snow pa & ny........... ric and dc are warm +4 ~ +6 signal is there the details will take a few days atleast it's something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Sounds like a redeveloper... is the H strong to our north or weak? Weak. We would need the primary to occlude and a stronger secondary to take over. The secondary gets shunted out east. We could still get snow to rain but temps are dicey either way. Id take a flawed mixy event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 weak low hardly any precip some light snow pa & ny........... ric and dc are warm +4 ~ +6 signal is there the details will take a few days atleast it's something to watch It makes me worry a little about ice knowing how the euro warms up the 2m temps. Still it's so far out there in time, lots can change. It does support the HPC forecast idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0115 PM EST SUN 29 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 31/0000Z B. AFXXX 08WSC TRACK54 C. 30/1830Z D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 31/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/1200Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 what ever happens seems like a slow mover per this run that ridge out west goes all the way over the arctic ocean into russia 570dm into western canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 hr 204 huge +pna nice -nao, big trough in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Arctic Attack at day 9 with a raging +PNA, -AO/-NAO. Right on que with the February 7th "end transition" period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 hr 204 huge +pna nice -nao, big trough in the east But no southern stream and the trough is too far east to develer much more than cold air unless the miller b delivers. It's a very cold look. There hasn't been much consistency except for the love of a potent arctic connected PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 day 10 has -16c dc -20 philly -AO -NAO +PNA the PV is just south of hudson bay and looks like some hint of a split flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 day 10 has -16c dc -20 philly -AO -NAO +PNA the PV is just south of hudson bay and looks like some hint of a split flow It is better and that's what's important. The strong -EPO look is really no longer there though the last 2 runs And the block is east of Iceland. It is serviceable though and we probably will get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It is better and that's what's important. The strong -EPO look is really no longer there though the last 2 runs And the block is east of Iceland. It is serviceable though and we probably will get cold. It's not a bad pattern going forward,certainly better than anything we've seen so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Weak. We would need the primary to occlude and a stronger secondary to take over. The secondary gets shunted out east. We could still get snow to rain but temps are dicey either way. Id take a flawed mixy event though. I'd lock this in right now if I could for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Wunderground snow map isn't bad this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This has been a terrible winter so far. I can say for the early part of February in my opinion is the best I have seen so far this winter. I hope all models will come together for once and gives us the real oppurtunity too bring our shovels and sleds out. Most of all a smile on everyone's face and my daughters. I still believe we will get a good event before winters end. The real question is when? Right now I am being more positive then ever. If it's ice ice baby or frosty the snow man, I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'd lock this in right now if I could for my location. You'd lock in the snow map too. I know I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It still looks like you're going to have to wait until near the 10th or so, for a better risk of a more widespread storm other than a Miller B or overrunning. That's when the trough slides back west and those weenie analog dates appear like Will mentioned in the Medium Range thread. Seems like the time to watch for you guys, I think. The -NAO may not be around, but you may have enough amplitude out west and perhaps enough of a pseudo -NAO ridge poking into Greenland to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 15z sref support the doctor on the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I cannot describe the disdain I have for these miller b types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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