stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 wait till we're closer.. randy will probably start a new one tomorrow morning You can always go reopen ji's if u disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You can always go reopen ji's if u disagree. na, winter's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 na, winter's over One more day. Miracles can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 na, winter's over can something that never started actually be over? isn't that a pairasox or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ji, Anything is possible and I appreciate your enthusiasm on any possible winter event. I think it's time to punt winter and wait till next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 DT is right about the pattern being awful but there is a piece of energy that lags behind the cold front. Very low probability though. Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter Huge? idk about that. The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter JI take a good look at what you just said. Is there any part of that a 1st grader might find amusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 JI take a good look at what you just said. Is there any part of that a 1st grader might find amusing? Pretty sure he did that on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Pretty sure he did that on purpose Well it made my day thats for sure. He probably should have said it was his birthday, I would have believed it because it would explain why he never grows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Huge? idk about that. The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either. There was a tropical system back in the fall that the GFS locked onto at about 15 days out and never lost. I can't remember which one it was. It also had the October snow pretty far out, iirc. It may not have held it the whole way in, but I'm pretty sure it spotted it early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Unless the Euro has a storm, it isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Unless the Euro has a storm, it isn't happening. the euro busted short term on the last storm. it sucks. nam's new wheelhouse starts at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 DT is right about almost everything...however, the "type" of storm the GFS is advertising does not really need all of those other telleconection indices to line up. Its actually the right type of storm to try to sneak in during this kind of horrible pattern. A west to east trajectory storm sliding in on the tail end of a front... not saying I buy it but dismissing it simply because the pattern is not right is foolish also. If the GFS was advertising some kind of monster noreaster then I would say BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Can't overlook the fact the the euro beats the gfs 9 times out of 10 in the long range too. The only caveat is that the euro has been right 9 straight times now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Can't overlook the fact the the euro beats the gfs 9 times out of 10 in the long range too. The only caveat is that the euro has been right 9 straight times now... I doubt anyone is expecting anything or even giving it a good chance... but I also think totally dismissing it is a little foolish also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I doubt anyone is expecting anything or even giving it a good chance... but I also think totally dismissing it is a little foolish also. I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible. I agree 100 percent with what you just said.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 LOL classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Funny I could I swore I made the posted the same dumb and dumber clip 3 weeks ago and it got deleted. Anywho it looks like SE ridge is still killing us like it has all winter. The only chance 3/1 is if the is a Microsecs (PDI like storm) that is small enough to squeez in despite the SE ridge. After that the pattern just looks horrible. Also, If this pattern continues severe season maybe a little further west than last year closer to where tornados belong in TX OK and KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Hey Ji...how's the GFS looking for your storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Hey Ji...how's the GFS looking for your storm now? South trend is the new north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Hey Ji...how's the GFS looking for your storm now? you should not be using the OP for this right now. The ensembles learnsomethings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 JI try to control yourself when you see the EURO, it is only 7.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 JI try to control yourself when you see the EURO, it is only 7.5 days away. Feb 30th!!1!!!1!1!!!!11!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Feb 30 FTW? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Feb 30 FTW? ;-) If only it was 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's hard to deny the fact that the gfs has been showing something since last Friday and the euro has been hinting too. I'm not saying that I think our chances are good. At least for snow. Surface low over tn @ 168 isnt' ideal but 500 looks pretty good. Another miller A huh? heh, well see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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