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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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  • DT is right about the pattern being awful but there is a piece of energy that lags behind the cold front. Very low probability though.
    Wxrisk.com ‎12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ...

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18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter

Huge? idk about that.

The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either.

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Huge? idk about that.

The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either.

There was a tropical system back in the fall that the GFS locked onto at about 15 days out and never lost. I can't remember which one it was. It also had the October snow pretty far out, iirc. It may not have held it the whole way in, but I'm pretty sure it spotted it early.

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DT is right about almost everything...however, the "type" of storm the GFS is advertising does not really need all of those other telleconection indices to line up. Its actually the right type of storm to try to sneak in during this kind of horrible pattern. A west to east trajectory storm sliding in on the tail end of a front... not saying I buy it but dismissing it simply because the pattern is not right is foolish also. If the GFS was advertising some kind of monster noreaster then I would say BS

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I doubt anyone is expecting anything or even giving it a good chance... but I also think totally dismissing it is a little foolish also.

I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible.

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I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible.

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I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible.

I agree 100 percent with what you just said....

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Funny I could I swore I made the posted the same dumb and dumber clip 3 weeks ago and it got deleted.

Anywho it looks like SE ridge is still killing us like it has all winter. The only chance 3/1 is if the is a Microsecs (PDI like storm) that is small enough to squeez in despite the SE ridge. After that the pattern just looks horrible. Also, If this pattern continues severe season maybe a little further west than last year closer to where tornados belong in TX OK and KS.

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