Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 not that this is any bold prediction, but we are almost certainly done here in immediate metro DC....in 1998-99, the cold regime was in place by 2/25 or so....in 1971-72 by 2/15 or so.....JYO-HGR-MRB can still get something decent, but I think most of us are done...except for perhaps another 0.08" QPF BL nightmare or some cartopper at night on March 28th.....and I think the idea of a cold March is pretty unlikely...more of the same....and summer will probably be terrible and then next winter we probably get a 3rd year nina or neutral that is hot with 5" of snow...see ya in 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 not that this is any bold prediction, but we are almost certainly done here in immediate metro DC....in 1998-99, the cold regime was in place by 2/25 or so....in 1971-72 by 2/15 or so.....JYO-HGR-MRB can still get something decent, but I think most of us are done...except for perhaps another 0.08" QPF BL nightmare or some cartopper at night on March 28th.....and I think the idea of a cold March is pretty unlikely...more of the same....and summer will probably be terrible and then next winter we probably get a 3rd year nina or neutral that is hot with 5" of snow...see ya in 2013-14 You don't think we can get an El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Call me when the Euro shows a threat. And even then...200+ hours out? You are getting wiser. If you look at the 500h pattern with the 204 hr threat it is pathetic and doesn't really support snow. There is now real shortwave approaching with any amplitude. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You don't think we can get an El Nino? I think the jury is still out. We could have a 3rd year Nina, neutral, or Nino. I forget where I posted the enso stats but I broke down the different analogs for Nino's and neutrals but not Nina's. 75-76 stands out if we have another Nina. 72-73 was a strong nino, 73-74 was a strong nina, 74-75 was a weak nina (decent enso analog for this winter), and 75-76 went back to a mod-strong nina. 00-01 is another year that stand out if we have a 3rd year Nina. Honestly, I gotta side with zwyts for next year. This is a way off topic discussion but I really don't see an obvious reason to be enthused about where we stand and where we're going. It's a super small dataset though so you can't put much stock in anything irt past enso. There have been 4 multi year Nina's since 1950. Only one was followed with enso neutral and that was 01-02. The other 3 were Ninos. We prob have equal chances for the most part at any outcome next year. If anything, I would hedge against another Nina but that is a guess more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think you missed the Feb 30th joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think you missed the Feb 30th joke Dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Dammit! It's okay - we were having a good time with it in the now deleted thread that Ji made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You don't think we can get an El Nino? we are "probably" in a -PDO regime that started in 2007-08 (though some say it started in 1998)....even 2009-10 acted liked an example of going counter to the prevailing decadal cycle versus being part of a greater +PDO cycle....we don't have a great sample size but based on the past few, they last 20-30 years....it is more uncommon to get extended warm events in a -PDO cycle....usually they are one year....so the tendency is for a cold event...in the 45-76 -PDO cycle there were only 3 moderate/strong Ninos in 32 winters and 4 weaker ones....so all other things being equal, I'd probably go with a 20-25% chance of a NIno and 75-80% chance of a Nina or neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You are getting wiser. If you look at the 500h pattern with the 204 hr threat it is pathetic and doesn't really support snow. There is now real shortwave approaching with any amplitude. . Look...it took me a while, but yeah, I've toughened up. You know I love you and respect you, but I used to get so annoyed when you'd come into a thread and "rain on the parade". In hindsight, it's the best thing you could have ever done and you should keep it up and just lay it on the line straight. You da man. You can use paypal to pay me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's okay - we were having a good time with it in the now deleted thread that Ji made. No, I got it there. I just didn't see the time/date stamp Bob made on the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Dammit! lol, I missed it too, which reminds me of the first inch forecast where I used to work. One of the guys wasn't thinking at picked Feb 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Look...it took me a while, but yeah, I've toughened up. You know I love you and respect you, but I used to get so annoyed when you'd come into a thread and "rain on the parade". In hindsight, it's the best thing you could have ever done and you should keep it up and just lay it on the line straight. You da man. You can use paypal to pay me. Thanks. Speaking of paypal, did you get my conference payment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 we are "probably" in a -PDO regime that started in 2007-08 (though some say it started in 1998)....even 2009-10 acted liked an example of going counter to the prevailing decadal cycle versus being part of a greater +PDO cycle....we don't have a great sample size but based on the past few, they last 20-30 years....it is more uncommon to get extended warm events in a -PDO cycle....usually they are one year....so the tendency is for a cold event...in the 45-76 -PDO cycle there were only 3 moderate/strong Ninos in 32 winters and 4 weaker ones....so all other things being equal, I'd probably go with a 20-25% chance of a NIno and 75-80% chance of a Nina or neutral the upside is ninos in a -PDO regime are cold...even 72-73 which was pretty strong was reasonably cool, only a +0.8 vs today's norms....I think we just got unlucky...not sure I really count 51-52 since it was so marginal......chances are if we get a Nino, a good hedge would be below normal temps, above normal snow....A neutral winter next winter would probably suck....another nina would probably suck too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 the upside is ninos in a -PDO regime are cold...even 72-73 which was pretty strong was reasonably cool, only a +0.8 vs today's norms....I think we just got unlucky...not sure I really count 51-52 since it was so marginal......chances are if we get a Nino, a good hedge would be below normal temps, above normal snow....A neutral winter next winter would probably suck....another nina would probably suck too.... weak NINO; if I dare to think otherwise, I'll be insufferable we're getting a NINO, get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 weak NINO; if I dare to think otherwise, I'll be insufferable we're getting a NINO, get it? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 FWIW, euro has the same threat as GFS....2/29-3/1...maybe we'll get lucky (ha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 2009 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JIFeb30 snowstorm threat lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 2009 redux Wasn't 2009 part of the 13 or 14 year bb cycle or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 FWIW, euro has the same threat as GFS....2/29-3/1...maybe we'll get lucky (ha) Wunderground hasn't updated the Euro since the monday morning run (Day 5/6 QPF for Minneapolis?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Wunderground hasn't updated the Euro since the monday morning run (Day 5/6 QPF for Minneapolis?) ~0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 ~0.4" Thanks. Would have figured better, but a Quad Cities track is a little far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Thanks. Would have figured better, but a Quad Cities track is a little far south. They're not far. Plenty of time for the track to change. Even as close as Eau Claire gets pasted. MSP is on the western fringe of the good stuff. There's probably a stripe of 8-12" in west central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking wait till we're closer.. randy will probably start a new one tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JMA at 192 has a pretty significant overrunning event attacking a big arctic high...looks a bit supressed right now for the Northern Mid Atlantic...but I am not going to mention what the JMA is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JMA at 192 has a pretty significant overrunning event attacking a big arctic high...looks a bit supressed right now for the Northern Mid Atlantic...but I am not going to mention what the JMA is showing Is it a pretty significant, though slightly suppressed for the northern Mid-Atlantic, overrunning event at 192? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ... Euro shows a threat on Feb 29-March 1. Mostly for you though Mildew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Speaking of paypal, did you get my conference payment? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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