Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 nice split flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 hr 144 precip into raleigh 1008 low over fla ga. border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 hr 150 1004 low east of SC precip still at raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It's a bit closer but still OTS...worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 hr 156 she goes due east oh well looks the best yet on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 hr 156 she goes due east oh well looks the best yet on the euro but it's not even close to a phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 the PAC is ugly...there is no opportunity for the northern stream to dig.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 but it's not even close to a phase.. yea the low looked a bit more organized, precip is further northwest still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 06Z GFS is starting to show something for this weekend. Shows a 1005 low sliding off the coast of SC and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Wow... the contrast between the 00z gfs and 006z gfs is good for us... last night's gfs run at 00z Sunday (2/19) had the northern extent of the precip reaching only to the Florida/ Georgia border. This morning's 006z run had the precip into Virginia and it looked like it could have been moderate snow. AND from reading the entries above about last night's euro run, it seems as though the two models are at least getting somewhat closer to an agreement. Now.. pointing out this difference does little more than simply highlighting the awefull gfs run to run inconsistencies... but hey it is a step in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 06Z GFS is starting to show something for this weekend. Shows a 1005 low sliding off the coast of SC and OTS. Funny we posted at pretty much the same time... but yeah... definitely nice to see the GFS catching on. If both the euro and the gfs show it at 12z... I am jumping on (who I am kidding, I have been on since the euro showed that fantasy a few days back ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking at the 500's there are still some improvements needed. Not an expert but it seems the problem is that the conflunce ahead of the trough is dampening it out. It does show the 50/50 low in a better spot and a little weaker which I would think will help with that issue. Roughly 6 days away so I am sure there will be many changes but at least it seems that the models are trending in a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Except for the snow porn run a week or so ago this has been missing most of the year. The old long range fantasy snowstorm of the GFS. It has a 988 low off of OC Maryland at 324. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 re: the upcoming weekend...I know people like to bag on the models and their inconsistency, and also like to talk about how "close" this run or that run is to something good, but at some point, one has to bow to the fact that the GFS and Euro have been pretty spot on all things considered with the fact that conditions are lousy for significant warning criteria snow this winter - for us and a good chuck of the eastern 1/3 of the country. There has really been a derth of fantasy storms to focus on in those two models, frankly, and they have been pretty good at identifying the unfavorable set-up for such - as Wes is right to point out as he has for months (and others as well). So, yes, it is 6-7 days out from the potential event, and, yes, still time for things to change (duh), but it would have been nice for the big 2 to do more than hint at a possibility at some point - maybe a run where everything really came together other than a close (or not-so-close) miss. Lacking that, it seems a pretty safe bet that this weekend will look like pretty much all the others have this year when there has been a "threat"...something disorganized and warm that might spit a few flakes but is otherwise a nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 One thing that's different here it seems is that the models all at least show something and the Euro and GFS appear to be fairly close. Large Gulf storms are usually modeled a little better than the rest so that tells me there is at least some potential here. Looks like plenty of cold air around no matter what, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Some of the GFS ensemble members are still showing a wide spread but in general it looks as if most are in agreement with a low exiting off the SE coast though they seem to slow it down somewhat compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 One thing that's different here it seems is that the models all at least show something and the Euro and GFS appear to be fairly close. Large Gulf storms are usually modeled a little better than the rest so that tells me there is at least some potential here. Looks like plenty of cold air around no matter what, as well. that and the fact that many Miller As are modeled early to pass to our south hence, I like it from a modelology perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 that and the fact that many Miller As are modeled early to pass to our south hence, I like it from a modelology perspective I sure won't argue against that general statement, but still wouldn't mind the models actually bringing it into our area at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I sure won't argue against that general statement, but still wouldn't mind the models actually bringing it into our area at some point. <weenie/> the models are so bad this year we don't want to see them show a storm until the last minute. you add up all the bad and it equals a whole lotta good. snow!!1! </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, def on my point Ian. Which is that the models have acutally been pretty damn good this year, all things considered. Despite the "if we could just move the PV 800 miles everything would be fine" type wishing when looking at model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Wow, what a super thread! 64 pages! A lot of hope in storms without much output! Have a lot of weenie hope this weekend though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, def on my point Ian. Which is that the models have acutally been pretty damn good this year, all things considered. Despite the "if we could just move the PV 800 miles everything would be fine" type wishing when looking at model runs... As much as we will still look, the models don't mean a whole lot until later this week....There is no skill at this range, this winter....so we watch it and see....I still like the idea of being pessimistic with expectations and shooting really low no matter what is modeled.....maybe this can be a 2-4" event....maybe nothing.....the northern stream is a mighty force....OTS certainly seems like the trend of a Nina winter and this winter...no model is going to get stream interaction correct at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 As much as we will still look, the models don't mean a whole lot until later this week....There is no skill at this range, this winter....so we watch it and see....I still like the idea of being pessimistic with expectations and shooting really low no matter what is modeled.....maybe this can be a 2-4" event....maybe nothing.....the northern stream is a mighty force....OTS certainly seems like the trend of a Nina winter and this winter...no model is going to get stream interaction correct at this range right, but as implied in your statement, at least there's something to track whether it be into the terlet like so many this year, time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 something that "might" help with what's left this season, the NINA looked to be fading this past week on the daily SSTA map on Unysis, and the numbers say it has, with substantial warming across the equatorial PAC http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for EDIT: echoing my thoughts from earlier in this thread and others recently, the fact that the NINA peaked per those number 2/1 had to hurt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 something that "might" help with what's left this season, the NINA looked to be fading this past week on the daily SSTA map on Unysis, and the numbers say it has, with substantial warming across the equatorial PAC http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for That's pretty typical with the MJO going into P8. Let's see what happens the next two weeks with the MJO circling back around to the IO/Maritime Continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Through 120, GFS looks craptacular. Northern stream is completely killing the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Through 120, GFS looks craptacular. Northern stream is completely killing the southern vort. Yup. Dreadful. The 6z was a step forward and the 12z two steps back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Through 120, GFS looks craptacular. Northern stream is completely killing the southern vort. Not to mention that the s/w that was in E MI on the 06z is now in W IL on the 12z... just a 300 mile or so difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yup. Dreadful. The 6z was a step forward and the 12z two steps back. In the GGEM and P004 ensemble member We Trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nice 50/50 at hrr 135 and what have we got? Crap s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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