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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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DT is right about almost everything...however, the "type" of storm the GFS is advertising does not really need all of those other telleconection indices to line up. Its actually the right type of storm to try to sneak in during this kind of horrible pattern. A west to east trajectory storm sliding in on the tail end of a front... not saying I buy it but dismissing it simply because the pattern is not right is foolish also. If the GFS was advertising some kind of monster noreaster then I would say BS

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I doubt anyone is expecting anything or even giving it a good chance... but I also think totally dismissing it is a little foolish also.

I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible.

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I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible.

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I agree about it being the type of storm that you might get in this pattern though I still think the odds are strongly against it but I sure wouldn't completely discount it though it does look too wet for the 500h pattern being as flat as it is. We are in a crappy pattern that looks to last for awhile but that doesn't preclude lucking out with perfect timing. It's not likely but also not impossible.

I agree 100 percent with what you just said....

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Funny I could I swore I made the posted the same dumb and dumber clip 3 weeks ago and it got deleted.

Anywho it looks like SE ridge is still killing us like it has all winter. The only chance 3/1 is if the is a Microsecs (PDI like storm) that is small enough to squeez in despite the SE ridge. After that the pattern just looks horrible. Also, If this pattern continues severe season maybe a little further west than last year closer to where tornados belong in TX OK and KS.

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It's hard to deny the fact that the gfs has been showing something since last Friday and the euro has been hinting too.

I'm not saying that I think our chances are good. At least for snow. Surface low over tn @ 168 isnt' ideal but 500 looks pretty good. Another miller A huh? heh, well see.

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It's hard to deny the fact that the gfs has been showing something since last Friday and the euro has been hinting too.

I'm not saying that I think our chances are good. At least for snow. Surface low over tn @ 168 isnt' ideal but 500 looks pretty good. Another miller A huh? heh, well see.

I think the last one was a Miller b...at least that's what one of the hpc discussions said

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