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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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You are getting wiser. If you look at the 500h pattern with the 204 hr threat it is pathetic and doesn't really support snow. There is now real shortwave approaching with any amplitude. .

Look...it took me a while, but yeah, I've toughened up. You know I love you and respect you, but I used to get so annoyed when you'd come into a thread and "rain on the parade". In hindsight, it's the best thing you could have ever done and you should keep it up and just lay it on the line straight. You da man.

You can use paypal to pay me. Thanks.

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Look...it took me a while, but yeah, I've toughened up. You know I love you and respect you, but I used to get so annoyed when you'd come into a thread and "rain on the parade". In hindsight, it's the best thing you could have ever done and you should keep it up and just lay it on the line straight. You da man.

You can use paypal to pay me. Thanks.

Speaking of paypal, did you get my conference payment?

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the upside is ninos in a -PDO regime are cold...even 72-73 which was pretty strong was reasonably cool, only a +0.8 vs today's norms....I think we just got unlucky...not sure I really count 51-52 since it was so marginal......chances are if we get a Nino, a good hedge would be below normal temps, above normal snow....A neutral winter next winter would probably suck....another nina would probably suck too....

weak NINO; if I dare to think otherwise, I'll be insufferable

we're getting a NINO, get it? :fulltilt:

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its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking


  • Wxrisk.com ‎12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ...

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JMA at 192 has a pretty significant overrunning event attacking a big arctic high...looks a bit supressed right now for the Northern Mid Atlantic...but I am not going to mention what the JMA is showing

Is it a pretty significant, though slightly suppressed for the northern Mid-Atlantic, overrunning event at 192?

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  • Wxrisk.com ‎12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ...

Euro shows a threat on Feb 29-March 1. Mostly for you though Mildew

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18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter

Huge? idk about that.

The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either.

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Huge? idk about that.

The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either.

There was a tropical system back in the fall that the GFS locked onto at about 15 days out and never lost. I can't remember which one it was. It also had the October snow pretty far out, iirc. It may not have held it the whole way in, but I'm pretty sure it spotted it early.

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