stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You are getting wiser. If you look at the 500h pattern with the 204 hr threat it is pathetic and doesn't really support snow. There is now real shortwave approaching with any amplitude. . Look...it took me a while, but yeah, I've toughened up. You know I love you and respect you, but I used to get so annoyed when you'd come into a thread and "rain on the parade". In hindsight, it's the best thing you could have ever done and you should keep it up and just lay it on the line straight. You da man. You can use paypal to pay me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's okay - we were having a good time with it in the now deleted thread that Ji made. No, I got it there. I just didn't see the time/date stamp Bob made on the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Dammit! lol, I missed it too, which reminds me of the first inch forecast where I used to work. One of the guys wasn't thinking at picked Feb 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Look...it took me a while, but yeah, I've toughened up. You know I love you and respect you, but I used to get so annoyed when you'd come into a thread and "rain on the parade". In hindsight, it's the best thing you could have ever done and you should keep it up and just lay it on the line straight. You da man. You can use paypal to pay me. Thanks. Speaking of paypal, did you get my conference payment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 the upside is ninos in a -PDO regime are cold...even 72-73 which was pretty strong was reasonably cool, only a +0.8 vs today's norms....I think we just got unlucky...not sure I really count 51-52 since it was so marginal......chances are if we get a Nino, a good hedge would be below normal temps, above normal snow....A neutral winter next winter would probably suck....another nina would probably suck too.... weak NINO; if I dare to think otherwise, I'll be insufferable we're getting a NINO, get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 weak NINO; if I dare to think otherwise, I'll be insufferable we're getting a NINO, get it? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 2009 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JIFeb30 snowstorm threat lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 2009 redux Wasn't 2009 part of the 13 or 14 year bb cycle or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 FWIW, euro has the same threat as GFS....2/29-3/1...maybe we'll get lucky (ha) Wunderground hasn't updated the Euro since the monday morning run (Day 5/6 QPF for Minneapolis?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 ~0.4" Thanks. Would have figured better, but a Quad Cities track is a little far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking wait till we're closer.. randy will probably start a new one tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JMA at 192 has a pretty significant overrunning event attacking a big arctic high...looks a bit supressed right now for the Northern Mid Atlantic...but I am not going to mention what the JMA is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 its a good thing we closed my thread since that is the only threat worth tracking Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 JMA at 192 has a pretty significant overrunning event attacking a big arctic high...looks a bit supressed right now for the Northern Mid Atlantic...but I am not going to mention what the JMA is showing Is it a pretty significant, though slightly suppressed for the northern Mid-Atlantic, overrunning event at 192? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO has NO thread of ANY kind feb 29-march1.. Just an ordinary cold front. There is NO 50/50 Low... NO blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland a HUGE se ridge ahead of the front.. a very Positive AO and huge west trough coast trough. AS you can see its not 1 or 2 things that are unfavorable...its 8 or 9 things . BY march 2 a DEEP trough moves into the West and the eastern US REALLY warms up ... Euro shows a threat on Feb 29-March 1. Mostly for you though Mildew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Speaking of paypal, did you get my conference payment? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 wait till we're closer.. randy will probably start a new one tomorrow morning You can always go reopen ji's if u disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You can always go reopen ji's if u disagree. na, winter's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 na, winter's over One more day. Miracles can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 na, winter's over can something that never started actually be over? isn't that a pairasox or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ji, Anything is possible and I appreciate your enthusiasm on any possible winter event. I think it's time to punt winter and wait till next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter Huge? idk about that. The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 18zgfs huge feb 30. would save our winter JI take a good look at what you just said. Is there any part of that a 1st grader might find amusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 JI take a good look at what you just said. Is there any part of that a 1st grader might find amusing? Pretty sure he did that on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Pretty sure he did that on purpose Well it made my day thats for sure. He probably should have said it was his birthday, I would have believed it because it would explain why he never grows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Huge? idk about that. The gfs is stuck on the idea of showing something interesting on that day for 12 out of the last 16 runs. Has the gfs ever been this consistent at showing something similar over and over again outside of 180 hours? Seems kinda odd. Not saying we stand a chance in hell or anything but hey, no reason to kick it to the curb either. There was a tropical system back in the fall that the GFS locked onto at about 15 days out and never lost. I can't remember which one it was. It also had the October snow pretty far out, iirc. It may not have held it the whole way in, but I'm pretty sure it spotted it early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Unless the Euro has a storm, it isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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