chris87 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This winter is so bad I've learned of 2 new models in the past 2 days. Cat5 desperation. Unless this model shows a year other than 2012 for next Saterday, it's not worth looking at. we've kinda reached saturation wrt to models...it's not so hard to find a solution (either be an operational run or a single member of an ensemble system) which shows something that gets certain people excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 12z euro ensembles were good or bad? I hear both sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 12z euro ensembles were good or bad? I hear both sides doesnt look markedly different than op at quick glance.. nothing really of note here at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I doubt DTK or Chris would agree with you. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 fwiw- mjo is just about to leave 8 and enter 1. Ens forecast it to fizzle in 1 and go to cod. However, ens forecasts for the last week or 2 had it fizzling well before even entering 1. I'm sure it can cruise right through 8-1-2 and do nothing for us. Recent -ao period has done nothing and pretty much all the +pna's haven't done anything either. Something is always working against us this year and I don't think it can all be blamed on the nina. Winter just doesn't want to be winter on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 we've kinda reached saturation wrt to models...it's not so hard to find a solution (either be an operational run or a single member of an ensemble system) which shows something that gets certain people excited. Agreed, there comes a point where they just add more confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 All of todays guidance kick the southern steam closed low out at the right time (Sat/Sun), so that is a good first step. Now it just needs to phase with what is dropping in through the plains at the same time. If the southern stream is too late it will cut west- to early then it is sheared out by the vortex that will be the 50/50. Oh and by the way, this assumes that guidance models all of the other 100 vorts and their interactions correcly through this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 H7 looks like vomit at 156hrs, I'd like to see a closed low over Ohio. Instead I see notheing but a very fast westerly flow. NRN stream nneds slow down and amplify quite a bit. If any storm happens it will not be until next Monday, because the pattern isn't ready yet Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 fwiw- mjo is just about to leave 8 and enter 1. Ens forecast it to fizzle in 1 and go to cod. However, ens forecasts for the last week or 2 had it fizzling well before even entering 1. I'm sure it can cruise right through 8-1-2 and do nothing for us. Recent -ao period has done nothing and pretty much all the +pna's haven't done anything either. Something is always working against us this year and I don't think it can all be blamed on the nina. Winter just doesn't want to be winter on our side of the globe. Patience my friend! There is a 5-7 day lag from max convection during a phase until the downstream effects are felt. If it was only a 5 day lag we would just be seeing the results of 2 days worth of phase 7. With a 7 day lag, we are just seeing the results of 1 day of being in phase 7. I believe max convection in phase 7 was on Feb. 6. There is also a 70-80% correlation to a -NAO being induced by phase 7,8,1 with a 10-15 day lag. So there is plenty of time since we only entered phase 7 back on Feb. 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 fwiw- mjo is just about to leave 8 and enter 1. Ens forecast it to fizzle in 1 and go to cod. However, ens forecasts for the last week or 2 had it fizzling well before even entering 1. I'm sure it can cruise right through 8-1-2 and do nothing for us. Recent -ao period has done nothing and pretty much all the +pna's haven't done anything either. Something is always working against us this year and I don't think it can all be blamed on the nina. Winter just doesn't want to be winter on our side of the globe. Euro/UKMET/JMA all have mjo moderately strong through phase 3. Only GFS/ Canadian have mjo entering cod. I'd bet on the Euro group being right based on track record. Now whether the mjo actually improves our winter weather chances, who knows? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Patience my friend! There is a 5-7 day lag from max convection during a phase until the downstream effects are felt. If it was only a 5 day lag we would just be seeing the results of 2 days worth of phase 7. With a 7 day lag, we are just seeing the results of 1 day of being in phase 7. I believe max convection in phase 7 was on Feb. 6. There is also a 70-80% correlation to a -NAO being induced by phase 7,8,1 with a 10-15 day lag. So there is plenty of time since we only entered phase 7 back on Feb. 4. Now THIS is good info. Thank you! Can't do much but hang out and see what the next 4+/- weeks can do. My expectations are not high but I honestly believe we get a "real" event before it's time to start mulching the beds and getting the yard ready. A 2-4" event is not shooting for the moon although it wouldn't be a big surprise if we do get a virtual shutout for the remainder. At the very least, the super craptastic pattern of Dec-Jan has broken down so model watching isn't a day 15 chase anymore. I'm semi-optimistic but time will tell of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So what does anyone think about Tues and Thurs? Euro had a couple of precip rounds for both but the gfs and nam don't seem to like either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Now THIS is good info. Thank you! Can't do much but hang out and see what the next 4+/- weeks can do. My expectations are not high but I honestly believe we get a "real" event before it's time to start mulching the beds and getting the yard ready. A 2-4" event is not shooting for the moon although it wouldn't be a big surprise if we do get a virtual shutout for the remainder. At the very least, the super craptastic pattern of Dec-Jan has broken down so model watching isn't a day 15 chase anymore. I'm semi-optimistic but time will tell of course. Well I know it's taboo to mention anything beyond 120 hrs on the board but looking at 240-384 on the GFS over the past two runs you can already notice a difference in solutions compared to the entire winter. Nice meridional flow and some good looking deep short waves being developed. Better than the rest of this winter of zonal flow and weak short waves. It's not the storms themselves and their timing or track, it's the fact that pattern is obviously different than previous and that GFS is latching on to a regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 00z GFS continues the crappy fast zonal H7 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Energy goes poof...low sits in the gulf forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Energy goes poof...low sits in the gulf forever. Yea, I don't buy that and JB doesn't either.... He says he expects a phase on the EC this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well I know it's taboo to mention anything beyond 120 hrs on the board but looking at 240-384 on the GFS over the past two runs you can already notice a difference in solutions compared to the entire winter. Nice meridional flow and some good looking deep short waves being developed. Better than the rest of this winter of zonal flow and weak short waves. It's not the storms themselves and their timing or track, it's the fact that pattern is obviously different than previous and that GFS is latching on to a regime change. My AOSC TA and I were discussing the same overall patter changes. We thought this gives storms a better rail to ride on for for possible future set up, it's just a matter of timing of those other ever so important factors that we can't forget about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yea, I don't buy that and JB doesn't either.... He says he expects a phase on the EC this weekend JB is never right anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Next panel is likely an HECS... Can always count on the cmc to throw you a phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 tracker just texted me.. he's all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 tracker just texted me.. he's all in The JMA did it for him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 tracker just texted me.. he's all in In reality, this might be our best chance for something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So Gfs only model without bomb. Jma and cfc has it. Euro hasn't run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So Gfs only model without bomb. Jma and cfc has it. Euro hasn't run yet Did Kevin wood hack me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GFS has been awful in the medium range and I would be worried it would go west of here if it had something along the coast now. If this is legit, the Euro will start to pick up on it probably in the next two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GFS has been awful in the medium range and I would be worried it would go west of here if it had some along the coast now. If this is legit, the Euro will start to pick up on it probably in the next two runs. euro is running now i will update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Midlo Does well on the 00z GGEM, then OTS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 hr 138 1008mb low near the fla panhandle precip up into atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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