eurojosh Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Right here http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk ...yelp yelp howl yelp.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 LOL he wastes no time, once RIC is threatened. you said he would over in the NE thread good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 why did I suspect that would be the case The temps look very similar to the temps for our last three minor to almost events. At this time range, I'm not sure it matters much as the temps could change if the low cam north some and there were stronger dynamics. At least it's something to watch and maybe write about if the euro holds serve through tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The temps look very similar to the temps for our last three minor to almost events. At this time range, I'm not sure it matters much as the temps could change if the low cam north some and there were stronger dynamics. At least it's something to watch and maybe write about if the euro holds serve through tonight's run. Wes leaving bread crumbs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 AT least we have a 50/50 low this time... we will probably all ride the roller coaster this week run to run... any chance this comes up teh coast further? A bit of a weenie statement here but it has plenty of past proof to back it up........storms like this modeled at this range almost always end up further N unless there is a big -nao to push it away. IF (very cautious use of if here) the storm were to form as modeled, we will likely get some decent precip. Snow? Heh, bl issues will rear their ugly head again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 dt should look at surface temps.. not 6" for SE VA. of course the euro is probably wrong anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Wes leaving bread crumbs... It's certainly an interesting threat as the ukmet also likes the idea. That's the two best scoring models we have. The one downside is the temps again are likely to be marginal. pattern is more typical of a snowstorm than any we've had this year but that doesn't mean boudnary layer issues can't screw things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 sorry...what does copter mean lol? http://gigglepedia.com/gigglepedia/gallery/pics/people/lolcopter.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 the 7H and 8H RH maps have than anvil look to them, with the top of the anvil to our north and well south of NE been a couple years since I've seen that just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 sorry...what does copter mean lol? Actually, I believe it's an acronym: Count On Precipitation Turning Entirely to Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 the 7H and 8H RH maps have than anvil look to them, with the top of the anvil to our north and well south of NE been a couple years since I've seen that just sayin' im pretty sure you compared some storm earlier in the year to december 09 just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 im pretty sure you compared some storm earlier in the year to december 09 just sayin' I'm sure just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Anybody want to look at tomorrow or Thursday? Seems if we could get some precip tomorrow morning, it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Anybody want to look at tomorrow or Thursday? Seems if we could get some precip tomorrow morning, it would be snow. Tomorrow main issue is precip. Could be some light snow around for sure early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Anybody want to look at tomorrow or Thursday? Seems if we could get some precip tomorrow morning, it would be snow. It does look frozen in the am in our area, remember we are highly out numbered. I would imagine another storm like the last few with trace amounts and a few western and northern areas with an 1 or so? I guess the weekend potential has dampened the excitement for another duster observation tread and the warm is coming in too so it will be a blink and it is gone frozen storm. If is does snow a bit it would be the 4th layer in the heavy shade areas at my cabin in WV. I will be back there on Wednesday so I'll see if anything is left. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The 500's on the GFS the last couple of runs are suggesting a potential in the 4 day range. Unfortunatly the only model in it's camp seems to be the NAM at long range and considering how well they both did with this weekend storm it doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So, what's our next realistic window? March? December 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So, what's our next realistic window? March? December 2012? If you go by the Ensembles for the Euro and the GFS in the long range, which look pretty zonal and flat, my guess would be next year. The ops do like the idea of maybe setting up a split flow though, for whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I hope we can squeeze a March storm like 2009! More then likely we will Probally have to wait Untill winter 2012-2013, which I am really excited about for many reasons. Hope we get a weak-mod west based El Nino next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If you go by the Ensembles for the Euro and the GFS in the long range, which look pretty zonal and flat, my guess would be next year. The ops do like the idea of maybe setting up a split flow though, for whatever that's worth. They don't look horrible. But the chances for something to come together are low. At this point I would be happy for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Bump for Ji. Post your fantasy storm stuff in here dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Call me when the Euro shows a threat. And even then...200+ hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 not that this is any bold prediction, but we are almost certainly done here in immediate metro DC....in 1998-99, the cold regime was in place by 2/25 or so....in 1971-72 by 2/15 or so.....JYO-HGR-MRB can still get something decent, but I think most of us are done...except for perhaps another 0.08" QPF BL nightmare or some cartopper at night on March 28th.....and I think the idea of a cold March is pretty unlikely...more of the same....and summer will probably be terrible and then next winter we probably get a 3rd year nina or neutral that is hot with 5" of snow...see ya in 2013-14 You don't think we can get an El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Call me when the Euro shows a threat. And even then...200+ hours out? You are getting wiser. If you look at the 500h pattern with the 204 hr threat it is pathetic and doesn't really support snow. There is now real shortwave approaching with any amplitude. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You don't think we can get an El Nino? I think the jury is still out. We could have a 3rd year Nina, neutral, or Nino. I forget where I posted the enso stats but I broke down the different analogs for Nino's and neutrals but not Nina's. 75-76 stands out if we have another Nina. 72-73 was a strong nino, 73-74 was a strong nina, 74-75 was a weak nina (decent enso analog for this winter), and 75-76 went back to a mod-strong nina. 00-01 is another year that stand out if we have a 3rd year Nina. Honestly, I gotta side with zwyts for next year. This is a way off topic discussion but I really don't see an obvious reason to be enthused about where we stand and where we're going. It's a super small dataset though so you can't put much stock in anything irt past enso. There have been 4 multi year Nina's since 1950. Only one was followed with enso neutral and that was 01-02. The other 3 were Ninos. We prob have equal chances for the most part at any outcome next year. If anything, I would hedge against another Nina but that is a guess more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think you missed the Feb 30th joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think you missed the Feb 30th joke Dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Dammit! It's okay - we were having a good time with it in the now deleted thread that Ji made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.