Ian Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think the chances of a "virtual" shutout....a couple more cartoppers with maybe the outer burbs getting a slushy inch or 2 is probably over 50% if you include the possibility that places like MRB/HGR might get once more decent (4"+) event....... i thought we'd get a 2-4"+ at some point but it's getting harder and harder to believe. if we can go through an "OK" week in the heart of snow climo season and still get jacked we might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Sorry, but this winter has shaken me beyond being "voice of reason". I understand we have until mid March realistically, but this winter has broken me and I'm ready to move on. Of course I'll follow a 2" threat all week and then settle for a broomable snow in the end. fair enough...I understand....Putting all your eggs in a longshot on day 7 as our "last chance" is a pretty futile exercise....just take it as it comes, even though nothing great will probably come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think the chances of a "virtual" shutout....a couple more cartoppers with maybe the outer burbs getting a slushy inch or 2 is probably over 50% if you include the possibility that places like MRB/HGR might get once more decent (4"+) event....... Gotta wonder though. It almost feels like bad luck to some extent this year. It's not like there has been zero potential. We've had unusual bl issues. It's one thing when the column is flawed at various levels but multiple times we've had all ducks in a row with the exception of the last 1k feet or so. Your memory is clearly better than mine with past events but I swear, it does seem quite unusual to have such bl issues during our climo prime time. Last week's ragged 500 vort passed right through southern va. 9 times out of 10 that would have dropped a 2" coating pretty much everywhere (except maybe Wes' house ). I think the frustrating part for me is that even with marginal events that could and/or should be all snow end up being rain followed by slush followed by melt. Losing the game of inches is growing tiresome. With that being said, we have a few more games to play this year. Maybe we win one for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Voice of reason. Looking past 4-5 days is bad practice now. I've totally gotten away from doing it. I'll look at the lr but I'm not even really analyzing it anymore because it's an excercise in futility. I don't blame the models at all. The fast flow cannot be predicted with any accuracy past 4-5 days. Period. Doesn't look like anything is going to lock in this winter (good or bad) and that's fine. It is what it is. I'll hold out hope for a 2-4" because I still think the odds of it happening (or sneaking up on us) are pretty good. Probably a better chance of that than getting shut out the rest of the winter. But that's what I've got to do now that there have been no real winter threats. You're right but I also don't think the pattern is irrelevant argument is a good one either. Some patterns are better than others. La Nina years with a postive ao or negative PNA are pretty tough times compared to others to get a decent (4+ or greater event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gotta wonder though. It almost feels like bad luck to some extent this year. It's not like there has been zero potential. We've had unusual bl issues. It's one thing when the column is flawed at various levels but multiple times we've had all ducks in a row with the exception of the last 1k feet or so. Your memory is clearly better than mine with past events but I swear, it does seem quite unusual to have such bl issues during our climo prime time. Last week's ragged 500 vort passed right through southern va. 9 times out of 10 that would have dropped a 2" coating pretty much everywhere (except maybe Wes' house ). I think the frustrating part for me is that even with marginal events that could and/or should be all snow end up being rain followed by slush followed by melt. Losing the game of inches is growing tiresome. With that being said, we have a few more games to play this year. Maybe we win one for once. it isn't that surprising to me....depending on how the next 2 weeks go this could end up being a top 5 warmest winter in the last 75 years....as of a few days ago we were running neck and neck with 01-02.....when you look back at the torchiest winters, mostly they were non-producers....the ones that did produce something memorable (1998-99) were the exception... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm still sitting at a t for the winter- I'd be thrilled with a car topper. GFS has a few shots, nothing looks GREAT to me. (even for a cartopper.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The reason for the BL issues is that there has been zip in the way of Arctic air in the east this winter... fresh, stale, or otherwise. Even with 850s in the -1 to -3 range, the DP has been 33 or 34 on the home weather station when the vorts go by so when things saturate it ends up being 35 or 36 with rain or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Today looks like it will only be the 5th subfreezing high temperature here this winter. Last year I had 22 by this point. The BL issues have probably been caused by a lack of arctic origin high pressure to our north and west, and a lack of snow cover in those same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 But that's what I've got to do now that there have been no real winter threats. You're right but I also don't think the pattern is irrelevant argument is a good one either. Some patterns are better than others. La Nina years with a postive ao or negative PNA are pretty tough times compared to others to get a decent (4+ or greater event). yes...the pattern is relevant and certainly so for producing a 3-6/4-8" storm....But I have my sights set lower considering my top event this winter was just over an inch....the chances of getting a late season 4-7" storm are low in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 yes...the pattern is relevant and certainly so for producing a 3-6/4-8" storm....But I have my sights set lower considering my top event this winter was just over an inch....the chances of getting a late season 4-7" storm are low in my opinion My top event is similarly low, around 1.3 or 1.4 on the southern band event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 My top event is similarly low, around 1.3 or 1.4 on the southern band event. What does the control run of the DGEX say? I'm a sell out, I'm at the point where I want it to get warm so I can shed clothing and you can go back to having crappy golf games. I'm a broken man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 FWIW, Dave says the reason why the 12z GFS looked crappy was because the 50/50 low was too strong. Weaken it some, and we are good to go apparently. I just want one last chance at a 2" storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 But that's what I've got to do now that there have been no real winter threats. You're right but I also don't think the pattern is irrelevant argument is a good one either. Some patterns are better than others. La Nina years with a postive ao or negative PNA are pretty tough times compared to others to get a decent (4+ or greater event). Wasn't trying to imply that I think the pattern is irrelevant. I know way better than that. That pattern has been kinda "neutral" lately. Major teleconnections have been moving back and forth a bit between good and bad. I haven't been digging deep into the lr on the models because of the wild swings from run to run. And yes, Nina climo is a pita. Doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't squeeze a modest event in for the season. The pattern lately has been ripe to "time something" but we've been falling short a bit. Just a bit frustrating. Moreso than a se ridge when there is zero chance at anything. I can deal with that easy. it isn't that surprising to me....depending on how the next 2 weeks go this could end up being a top 5 warmest winter in the last 75 years....as of a few days ago we were running neck and neck with 01-02.....when you look back at the torchiest winters, mostly they were non-producers....the ones that did produce something memorable (1998-99) were the exception... Up until recently the pattern has been a total stinker. I'm only surprised (maybe frustrated is a better word) over the last couple of 3 weeks or so. There has been opportunity but we just couldn't put it all together. It has been 01-02ish in the temp department. The only reason why I've been trying not to use that winter as tool for this year is that the stable crappy +ao/nao set up in January. The Jan-Mar timeframe was set up for failure starting in January. Dec 2001 had some favorable periods of the telelconnections before it went all the hell. This winter the stable +ao/nao and general -pna set up shop basically in November and it has broken down. The period we're in now "should" be the window of opp inside of an overally bad winter. Heck, we the AO has been in negative territory for the last 3 weeks and even dipped to -3.0 at one point. NAO was stuck positive and we didn't even get cold. I'm still looking for another period when the ao was -2.0 or more but the nao was positive. I saw one time at least but I didn't write down the date. Regardless, it's a very uncommon occurance to have those 2 teleconnections at such odds with each other. On an interesting side note: The December nao came in at +2.52. That is the highest monthly reading of any winter month in the last 60 years. The closest Dec is 94 with a reading of 2.02 and the only other +2 month was Feb of 89 (came in at 2 even). January isn't out yet but it should be in the +1.0 - 1.5 range if my eyeball math is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 FWIW, Dave says the reason why the 12z GFS looked crappy was because the 50/50 low was too strong. Weaken it some, and we are good to go apparently. I just want one last chance at a 2" storm... It's all been downhill for him since October. He should have quit while he was ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It's all been downhill for him since October. He should have quit while he was ahead. Oh I know... was just sayin. I think it makes sense. Anyway, make this storm happen Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I still think 99-00 is the best analog for this year. ENSO and the AO/NAO are the best statistical match. 99-00 was a second year Nina but it was stronger Nina. The DJF trimonthly came in at -1.6. This year won't be nearly as strong but it is still a second year Nina after a Nino in 97-98. AO is a really good match. The pattern broke down later in 00 than this year but that is fine. The NAO is an excellent match as well. The NAO in 99-00 was +1.61 in Dec, +.60 in Jan, +1.70 in Feb, +.77 in March. Yea, I know this period in 2000 was a major snow bust with a heartbreaker thrown in but there was opportunity to time something. Maybe I'm just being a weenie but I still feel like a 2-4 is in our cards this year. If not, the Nino next year will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I still think 99-00 is the best analog for this year. ENSO and the AO/NAO are the best statistical match. 99-00 was a second year Nina but it was stronger Nina. The DJF trimonthly came in at -1.6. This year won't be nearly as strong but it is still a second year Nina after a Nino in 97-98. AO is a really good match. The pattern broke down later in 00 than this year but that is fine. The NAO is an excellent match as well. The NAO in 99-00 was +1.61 in Dec, +.60 in Jan, +1.70 in Feb, +.77 in March. Yea, I know this period in 2000 was a major snow bust with a heartbreaker thrown in but there was opportunity to time something. Maybe I'm just being a weenie but I still feel like a 2-4 is in our cards this year. If not, the Nino next year will be rockin! Does that mean the next two winters will analog 00-01 and 01-02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 FWIW, Dave says the reason why the 12z GFS looked crappy was because the 50/50 low was too strong. Weaken it some, and we are good to go apparently. I just want one last chance at a 2" storm... I don't even want a 2 inch storm now. At least four or let's get Spring going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Oh I know... was just sayin. I think it makes sense. Anyway, make this storm happen Ian I think a lot of what he says makes sense in one way or another; unfortunately some of it is also weenieism as there is always an opportunity to look at the LR and say "the 5h doesn't match the surface" or "x model has x bias" ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Does that mean the next two winters will analog 00-01 and 01-02? lol- I already kinda wondered that myself. That 3 year stretch was terrible for sure. Just a guess but, no, I don't think we'll have the same type of outcome. 00-01 was a 3rd year Nina and 01-02 was enso neutral with a nina hangover. Zwyts explained the Nina hangover to me and it's never a good outcome. We'll see if we can get into Nino territory next year. Odds looking low for a 3rd year Nina and Enso neutral after Nina's have been a kiss of death. I plan on paying close attention to enso all spring, summer, and fall. Anything other than a Nino is probably going to mean we are in trouble next year. Getting ot here so let's see if Feb can deliver something at least "broomable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 lol- I already kinda wondered that myself. That 3 year stretch was terrible for sure. Just a guess but, no, I don't think we'll have the same type of outcome. 00-01 was a 3rd year Nina and 01-02 was enso neutral with a nina hangover. Zwyts explained the Nina hangover to me and it's never a good outcome. We'll see if we can get into Nino territory next year. Odds looking low for a 3rd year Nina and Enso neutral after Nina's have been a kiss of death. I plan on paying close attention to enso all spring, summer, and fall. Anything other than a Nino is probably going to mean we are in trouble next year. Getting ot here so let's see if Feb can deliver something at least "broomable". Agreed. I think we pretty much have to get a Nino for next winter to avoid either a Nina hangover or 3rd year Nina (which would suck either way). And Ninos that follow Ninas can work really well, such as 1957-58, 1963-64, 1965-66, and of course 2009-10. Let's just hope to get some good blocking as well, so I can finally go sledding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Euro must be awful throughout, no mention of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It has some snow Tuesday and cold rain on thursday. Haven't seen past that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Euro must be awful throughout, no mention of it. I hear it's another southern slider then OTS in the southern thread. FAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Euro must be awful throughout, no mention of it. Not awful but not good. Shows potential for next weekend. But nothing to get excited about yet. Pattern looks god awful at the end of the run but that will change in 12 hours so no biggie. Low cuts to the lakes midweek. A bunch of suspect energy hanging in the sw that pumps up heights in the east. Next weekend still worth keeping an eye on (like we wouldn't anyway lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well, at this point, the only hope we have is the DT theory. 50/50 - confluence modeled too strong and incorrectly crushes the southern vort. Sigh. Look at what I'm reduced to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Euro must be awful throughout, no mention of it. It's not much. It has a little snow Tuesday morning. The Thurs event is at least interesting. Could end up being some snow at the start. Start time is good, and those things always seem to be a bit colder. After that, it looks like it squashes everything. But, that's a ways out there, and we all know just how good these models have been at those time ranges. However, the GFS ens. members do agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It has some snow Tuesday and cold rain on thursday. Haven't seen past that yet 0.01 for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well, at this point, the only hope we have is the DT theory. 50/50 - confluence modeled too strong and incorrectly crushes the southern vort. Sigh. Look at what I'm reduced to. Thing is, didn't we deal with a similar situation 2 years ago at the end of Jan? Seems like I remember those low heights near Maine being forecast too far south. As we got closer, that ended up further north, and a storm that was supposed to give us nothing on Friday morning, ended up giving us 5 to 7 inches pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.