Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Is that the same storm coming out of the gulf that the GFS shows a day earlier than the Euro?. yes...it's a gulf low..and it goes mostly OTS, but the atlantic setup makes it kind of interesting..we have lots of time to obsess over this one if it looks like a legit threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 yes...it's a gulf low..and it goes mostly OTS, but the atlantic setup makes it kind of interesting..we have lots of time to obsess over this one if it looks like a legit threat Great, so i will have a 2 a.m. bedtime the next 7 days only to watch it blow up 200 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 yes...it's a gulf low..and it goes mostly OTS, but the atlantic setup makes it kind of interesting..we have lots of time to obsess over this one if it looks like a legit threat LOL, GFS has it trying to cut. This week will be hell. I'll be red-eyeing it every night with nothing to show for it come crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL, GFS has it trying to cut. This week will be hell. I'll be red-eyeing it every night with nothing to show for it come crunch time. A middle of the road compromise would make our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Great, so i will have a 2 a.m. bedtime the next 7 days only to watch it blow up 200 miles offshore. LOL, GFS has it trying to cut. This week will be hell. I'll be red-eyeing it every night with nothing to show for it come crunch time. it is a lot of moving parts....we are going to have to time something and that is going to be a low probability through the end of winter I would think,....The reason this run is interesting is a weak -NAO ridge in very good position pops with very good timing....If we actually get ridging over Baffin Island later this week it might change things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 it is a lot of moving parts....we are going to have to time something and that is going to be a low probability through the end of winter I would think,....The reason this run is interesting is a weak -NAO ridge in very good position pops with very good timing....If we actually get ridging over Baffin Island later this week it might change things I hope you will be up late every night this week or i am calling Randy to get your number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Ugh.........I can't invest myself into this weekend "threat" until at least Thursday. anything good is going to be a longshot unless we get lucky and what are the chances of that this winter?...we aren't going to get a massive complex to come out of the TN valley and run into a big cold dome...we need a lot of fortutitous things to all happen at once looks like teh 12z run has the -NAO too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I hope you will be up late every night this week or i am calling Randy to get your number. I wont ....I am starting a new job....I wont be up for the euro this week I dont think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I wont ....I am starting a new job....I wont be up for the euro this week I dont think... That sucks, good luck with your new job though. Hopefully it will become legit enough to force you to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 the sfc low from the GOM gets out just ahead of the trough so we dont get a phase in time...whats the difference?...next run will be all rain and then the run after that will be 0.02" QPF of snow and then the run after that will have 850 temps of +20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 the sfc low from the GOM gets out just ahead of the trough so we dont get a phase in time...whats the difference?...next run will be all rain and then the run after that will be 0.02" QPF of snow and then the run after that will have 850 temps of +20 A few of the 06Z gefs members like the system so it's worth watching though it is probably a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 A few of the 06Z gefs members like the system so it's worth watching though it is probably a long shot. Dave is ranting about the Euro and how the H5 maps don't match the SFC. Saying the SFC low should be closer to the coast and that MD/VA/ should have a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I believe this is our last week for any kind of hope so I'm going to hop on the almost sunken Wes boat and see if we can salvage anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Dave is ranting about the Euro and how the H5 maps don't match the SFC. Saying the SFC low should be closer to the coast and that MD/VA/ should have a snowstorm. Heck, I could see it in the Oh Valley too given that's where there is a closed 500 low. I do think that is a window of opportunity and beyond that time, the pattern probably will get worse as the ao looks to go positive or neutral with the pacific ridge shifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 One of these days we're gonna see a legitimate threat on a 12z run that is four days away only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 One of these days we're gonna see a legitimate threat on a 12z run that is four days away only. It's looking like that day will probably come next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Heck, I could see it in the Oh Valley too given that's where there is a closed 500 low. I do think that is a window of opportunity and beyond that time, the pattern probably will get worse as the ao looks to go positive or neutral with the pacific ridge shifting west. This is our last hope. Hold me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 So the GFS looks terrible...looks promising at first...High sliding down almost in tandem with the gulf low...but the s/w gets crushed. There's another coming on it's heels, but that'll cut west...mark it. I think this is our last hope, seriously. And the uber sun angle which will set you ablaze upon stepping out of your house this time of year...we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 So the GFS looks terrible...looks promising at first...High sliding down almost in tandem with the gulf low...but the s/w gets crushed. There's another coming on it's heels, but that'll cut west...mark it. I think this is our last hope, seriously. And the uber sun angle which will set you ablaze upon stepping out of your house this time of year...we're done. Calm down. It's the 180 hour GFS... 12 hrs ago it had it running up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 At least winter went out with a big bang.. Almost like 2 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This is our last hope. Hold me. i'd just take it as it comes until around 3/10......after that anything decent here in dc is pretty anomalous.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The setup next weekend in the Atlantic is forecasted to be somewhat decent, with ridging nosing up into the souther Greenland and Davis straight area. So just need some good timing with the ejection of the closed low in Mexico. The tendency has been for those to close off and sit down there all winter... I think the control run storm for next weekend is a very low probability, but at least some thing to watch as the Atlantic looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calm down. It's the 180 hour GFS... 12 hrs ago it had it running up the apps Thanks for telling to calm down. Without you, I would have immediately assumed the GFS at 180 hours was a lock. Thank God for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i'd just take it as it comes until around 3/10......after that anything decent here in dc is pretty anomalous.... Sure. And of course the GFS is going to flip. My comment was more due to the pattern going back into the crapper after this "last shot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Sure. And of course the GFS is going to flip. My comment was more due to the pattern going back into the crapper after this "last shot". i dont think we really know what is going to happen 8-9 days from now.....we have to time something anyway, which we could conceivably do (ha) with any cold front....so the pattern is kind of irrelevant....Our "last shot" is in around 4 weeks and even after that we can get something though likely would be very minor here in DC.....The best attitude is either to take it as it comes or just punt winter....Focusing on a finite threat as our "last gasp effort" is the worst attitude to have.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i dont think we really know what is going to happen 8-9 days from now.....we have to time something anyway, which we could conceivably do (ha) with any cold front....so the pattern is kind of irrelevant....Our "last shot" is in around 4 weeks and even after that we can get something though likely would be very minor here in DC.....The best attitude is either to take it as it comes or just punt winter....Focusing on a finite threat as our "last gasp effort" is the worst attitude to have.... Voice of reason. Looking past 4-5 days is bad practice now. I've totally gotten away from doing it. I'll look at the lr but I'm not even really analyzing it anymore because it's an excercise in futility. I don't blame the models at all. The fast flow cannot be predicted with any accuracy past 4-5 days. Period. Doesn't look like anything is going to lock in this winter (good or bad) and that's fine. It is what it is. I'll hold out hope for a 2-4" because I still think the odds of it happening (or sneaking up on us) are pretty good. Probably a better chance of that than getting shut out the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i dont think we really know what is going to happen 8-9 days from now.....we have to time something anyway, which we could conceivably do (ha) with any cold front....so the pattern is kind of irrelevant....Our "last shot" is in around 4 weeks and even after that we can get something though likely would be very minor here in DC.....The best attitude is either to take it as it comes or just punt winter....Focusing on a finite threat as our "last gasp effort" is the worst attitude to have.... Sorry, but this winter has shaken me beyond being "voice of reason". I understand we have until mid March realistically, but this winter has broken me and I'm ready to move on. Of course I'll follow a 2" threat all week and then settle for a broomable snow in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This will be the year of PDIII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Voice of reason. Looking past 4-5 days is bad practice now. I've totally gotten away from doing it. I'll look at the lr but I'm not even really analyzing it anymore because it's an excercise in futility. I don't blame the models at all. The fast flow cannot be predicted with any accuracy past 4-5 days. Period. Doesn't look like anything is going to lock in this winter (good or bad) and that's fine. It is what it is. I'll hold out hope for a 2-4" because I still think the odds of it happening (or sneaking up on us) are pretty good. Probably a better chance of that than getting shut out the rest of the winter. I think the chances of a "virtual" shutout....a couple more cartoppers with maybe the outer burbs getting a slushy inch or 2 is probably over 50% if you include the possibility that places like MRB/HGR might get once more decent (4"+) event....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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