yoda Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Good lord, will you guys stop fighting with each other? It's just the weather! **** your torch Anyway, hope the Euro doesn't have the silly cutoff low again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 this is a good sign actually Canadian more or less looks like the UK. Drops the energy into the desert southwest...the GFS is the outlier of the three being more progressive with the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 **** your torch Anyway, hope the Euro doesn't have the silly cutoff low again Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Canadian more or less looks like the UK. Drops the energy into the desert southwest...the GFS is the outlier of the three being more progressive with the wave. Canadian has a weak coastal from hour 144-156 that delivers pretty good qpf to the DC corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Canadian more or less looks like the UK. Drops the energy into the desert southwest...the GFS is the outlier of the three being more progressive with the wave. I somehow doubt the energy is gonna sit there for 4 days but it's not unrealistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Wut? Weather is serious biz.. Or you wouldn't be posting here at 130am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Weather is serious biz.. Or you wouldn't be posting here at 130am Regardless how serious the weather is, fighting with friends over it is pretty silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Wut? I was pretending to fight with you over your torch, that's all Sounds good Zwyts... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro has a lead rainstorm at 120hrs in the OV before the cold air gets in. The GFS shears out this shortwave and develops the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I somehow doubt the energy is gonna sit there for 4 days but it's not unrealistic Not sure I get what you're saying. Shortwave comes into the PacNW 2/1 12Z or so, by 2/4 00Z digs into the desert southwest...meanwhile the GFS has moved the wave along and has a sfc low over southern NC and it's snowing in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lots of model variability. I smell WSR on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 pretty much...there is a very weak wave of low pressure moving to our west that tries to pop a very weak coastal that misses us...the whole thing is sloppy and uninspiring and might bring some very light snow/rain Saturday night, sunday Gfs I'm sure will fold to the euro like it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Gfs I'm sure will fold to the euro like it always does. You may be right, but the Euro has not settled into any consistent solution for next weekend. The GFS ensembles have been consistent showing a storm threat for next weekend. Now the spread on the ensembles is large, however almost all of the members have a storm somewhere along the eastern seaboard next weekend (some have stronger secondary re-development than others). Until the Euro settles down or the GFS punts on the storm idea, it will be interesting to follow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lots of model variability. I smell WSR on this one. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Gfs I'm sure will fold to the euro like it always does. Gfs folded. The run is a disaster and winter is still over. There is not one cold day on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro hates us Why did you invest hope in the Friday deal. Even up this way, we are leery of anything great...well except Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 As far as the pattern down this way, I think it won't turn more favorable for anything..until maybe near the 10th or so. This is when the trough may retro enough to open the door to more widespread threats in the East. There may be enough of a ridge out west, and ridging poking into Greenland for a brief time, to allow this to happen...but this is not a certain thing at all. Of course you could always get clipped by Miller B's or maybe even overrunning, but I think the better chance comes maybe near the 10th. JMHO. Without a stout -NAO, I know it can be tough, so I don't think you can use stronger words..other than "chance" right now..but keep watching going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Gfs folded. The run is a disaster and winter is still over. There is not one cold day on the run Not sure why you are living and dying but each run of the GFS op when it is flip flopping like a fish out of water. Not saying they are right but I think I would put more stock in the ensembles which look decent and have been far more consistant then the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Why did you invest hope in the Friday deal. Even up this way, we are leery of anything great...well except Kevin. I didn't invest in a Friday event...I was thinking maybe a chance late weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There is still some model disagreement on timing. With this flow and changing regime, models will struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There is still some model disagreement on timing. With this flow and changing regime, models weenies will struggle. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 fixed Well that's true too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Regardless of the individual storms, the models are actually progressing the cooler pattern into the 6-10 day, which is a good sign that will be a cold period in the eastern U.S. early-mid Feb. that will allow for snow chances. The next step is trying to figure out where the longwave trough will set up within this cooler regime. (EDIT: or if there will even be one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Right now on the ensemble means at least thru day 10 it looks to be a little east of where we'd like plus the models still seem to be showing a negative ao as they have high heights back over the azores and low heights near and just south of iceland. That implies systems probably ould be moving really fast. Still the amplitude of the pattern suggest a period of colder than normal weather and that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Torch this week and rain, folks, on the weekend. Perhaps the 6-10 will verify and we have a chance. Otherwise we will always have Paris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 to break the back of a seasonal pattern that has held strong for over 2 months is going to be a biatch, especially with global SSTA continuing to support it as much as I want it, I am skeptical of the models and even if we do get a "change" to sustained cold for a time, will the pattern be conducive to snow as we won't have much time to cash in so my advice is to avoid visiting the high floors of tall building for the next 45 days here's hoping to a better next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 to break the back of a seasonal pattern that has held strong for over 2 months is going to be a biatch, especially with global SSTA continuing to support it as much as I want it, I am skeptical of the models and even if we do get a "change" to sustained cold for a time, will the pattern be conducive to snow as we won't have much time to cash in so my advice is to avoid visiting the high floors of tall building for the next 45 days here's hoping to a better next year CPD said in its note that although perhaps colder in mid-Feb, it would also be dryer pattern. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Bits and pieces from HPC. THE 00Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR COMPARES UNFAVORABLY TO OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH ITS SHRTWV TRACKING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE OH VLY DURING WED THU...... THE RAPID SHARPENING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN NOAM RIDGE SEEMS TO FAVOR AT LEAST AN INTERMEDIATE TROF AXIS VERSUS THE ERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE..... A DIFFICULT AND LOW TO NO CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN DETAILS LATE PERIOD MAINLY WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF..... DEPICTION BY DAY 5 FRI OF A CENTER JUMPING SFC LOW FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NC COAST AND THAN AN EXIT NEWD TO NEAR THE NEW ENG BENCH MARK BY DAY 6 SAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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