eurojosh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's a really strange setup....not very conducive to a big storm or any storm for that matter Maybe at the meta-level, but the trough/ridge set up from day 6 onwards look more reasonable than most others this winter, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sorry ladies and gentlemen, but winter will be over after this minor cold front disturbance rolls through the Northern Va area. AO we can kiss goodbye and the NAO as they are both going to scream positive for a hot minute. By the time the AO/NAO will be in sync, spring will be here. I have lived in Virginia long enough to know that winter is done. If we get a real snowstorm then I will eat my words and apologize. Winter 2012-2013, I hope we all get paid back for the last 2 winters. 2 winters in a row with below avg snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Brad, why do you think the ao/nao are going to "scream positive" and what analysis have you done to feel comfortable in saying that they won't cooperate before it's too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sorry ladies and gentlemen, but winter will be over after this minor cold front disturbance rolls through the Northern Va area. AO we can kiss goodbye and the NAO as they are both going to scream positive for a hot minute. By the time the AO/NAO will be in sync, spring will be here. I have lived in Virginia long enough to know that winter is done. If we get a real snowstorm then I will eat my words and apologize. Winter 2012-2013, I hope we all get paid back for the last 2 winters. 2 winters in a row with below avg snow. irerotatt? And further, weroetaljfera? And what about ktoguaosfgoauteat? I was thinking aieothaognaoehtowhtn. But you may be right about tah'aewrthaweotaghaowet. Although, I'm not so sure because thaeworuoathaoiewta. Thoughts? I'll get a drink and wait for your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? I thought we were not allowed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? It's hard to get excited about it when from run to run it will go from a cutter, to suppressed, to fantasy storm. Looking at the 500's in that time frame also doesn't instill much confidence in a good outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? If there is a time range that something might have a chance it would be in the 180 to 216 hour range as that's when the ens mean doesn't look awful like it does by the end of the run when the epo goes strongly positive. The pattern basically again a bad one by 240 hours though the details on the models will be wrong so I guess there is always hope since they have been pretty bad lately. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? Nice to look at and would be sweet if just one time it worked out. I'm holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS still threatening PD3 pre truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Somebody just did Randy. Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Haha I really wish everyone could see the control run of the ecmwf over on accupro. It has what appears to be a 975 BECS off ocean city next saturday with 1.9 qpf and -6? 850's... Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I head out to Vegas for a work trip on Monday, coming back Friday. It'd be great to come home to an actual snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Haha I really wish everyone could see the control run of the ecmwf over on accupro. It has what appears to be a 975 BECS off ocean city next saturday with 1.9 qpf and -6? 850's... Woof Really? Because the ewall version makes it look like it starts as rain and only catches the colder temps in time to give us some back end snowshowers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Really? Because the ewall version makes it look like it starts as rain and only catches the colder temps in time to give us some back end snowshowers... He is talking about the control run of the Euro that is not the Operational run. It is basically like p001 of the GFS ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Haha I really wish everyone could see the control run of the ecmwf over on accupro. It has what appears to be a 975 BECS off ocean city next saturday with 1.9 qpf and -6? 850's... Woof Please take this crap to the banter thread. This thread is about actual storm threats, not weenie fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Please take this crap to the banter thread. This thread is about actual storm threats, not weenie fantasies. . The euro control is more legit in my eyes than the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 . The euro control is more legit in my eyes than the 18z gfs Do you even know what the ECMWF control run is? It is a low resolution version of the operational ECMWF and the only member in the ensemble run which is not perturbed, I'm sure it is no where near close to the accuracy of any run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Do you even know what the ECMWF control run is? It is a low resolution version of the operational ECMWF and the only member in the ensemble run which is not perturbed, I'm sure it is no where near close to the accuracy of any run of the GFS. I am perturbed by the lack of snow here. I am sure the crappy control run will not help that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 He is talking about the control run of the Euro that is not the Operational run. It is basically like p001 of the GFS ensemble run. Gotcha. Thanks, didn't know that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 you know, i'm not hating the new pattern has much as i thought i would, I feel like there's a chance to role the dice and see what pops out over the next 1 or 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The euro is a bit interesting for Tuesday morning and then evening....especially given cold roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 wouldnt shock me if Thursday started as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think I have gotten the super minor events out of my system...I will still enjoy but I am not going to obsess over every 0.2" event this week if there are 1 or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 wouldnt shock me if Thursday started as snow I think i'm more interested in what's after, although the Valentines day stuff sounds interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think i'm more interested in what's after, although the Valentines day stuff sounds interesting. yes...not going to obsess over some 0.03" QPF event unless it trends more interesting...I think the Monday night-THU period looks more interesting for the usual burbs but even there nothing too exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 why does th euro have to have a near miss on day 7...another week of model-itis followed by failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 why does th euro have to have a near miss on day 7...another week of model-itis followed by failure Is that the same storm coming out of the gulf that the GFS shows a day earlier than the Euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 why does th euro have to have a near miss on day 7...another week of model-itis followed by failure the Atlantic looks decent by day 5-6...maybe next weekend is legit?....the PAC looks pretty awful though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 the Atlantic looks decent by day 5-6...maybe next weekend is legit?....the PAC looks pretty awful though You better hope it does not or ABC1234 will be trolling everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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