H2O Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 dt's melting down like everyone else. i mean i'd love to believe we're about to kick both this years and nina trends overall in the butt but that's pretty hard to stomach at face value. Pretty standard tactic to just flat out punt a run when it doesn't show what you want and have been harping on a storm for as long as he has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Pretty standard tactic to just flat out punt a run when it doesn't show what you want and have been harping on a storm for as long as he has been Agreed. You just can't toss out a model because it doesn't show what you want. Where's dtk when we need him in here. He could likely come up with a very plausible reason why the GFS has the solution it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Considering the time range it is pretty likely the GFS is full of crap. Doesn't mean it will give us snow later, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Agreed. You just can't toss out a model because it doesn't show what you want. Where's dtk when we need him in here. He could likely come up with a very plausible reason why the GFS has the solution it has. as said, typical DT...models don't "misplaced" areas of low pressure...NWP models are dynamic systems which provide a solution to a set of equations...every shortwave, every area of low pressure is tied to those physical equations... this idea, "given the 500 mb pattern, the model should have the low pressure 150 miles NW" is straight from idiot land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Considering the time range it is pretty likely the GFS is full of crap. Doesn't mean it will give us snow later, though. the models have been pretty good at not giving us snow when it doesnt end up snowing. it might be too strung out... tho the euro isnt on board so there's not much reason to be that excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't see anything wrong with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't see anything wrong with GFS but it doesn't give me a snowstorm like it is supposed to!!**** ***stupid weenie reasoning There is no reason to think that the GFS is totally wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't see anything wrong with GFS Try using weenie goggles. Sent from my DROIDX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't see anything wrong with GFS Other than the fact that it doesn't show what people want. I looked at it this way. At least it has precip here when there was none before. Unless you live in Raleigh, Richmond, or Norfolk, the 6z gfs runs wasn't anything to get excited about. Doesn't matter either way. Lots of different solutions will come out before one that actually gets it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GGEM looks worse than last night at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GGEM looks worse than last night at 144 Kinda ironic... there always has to be that one model that show something huge.. now its the UKIE. At 96, 1007 L in SW TX. At 120, 1008 L in C AL... which leads to this at 144: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We're on to the UKMET now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We're on to the UKMET now? Ride it like a Harley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We're on to the UKMET now? It's A European model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We're on to the UKMET now? Perhaps it will be a sneaky red flag for the EURO later? Maybe? But yes Anyway, is that even snow? Or is it rain on that UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GEFS actually isn't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Perhaps it will be a sneaky red flag for the EURO later? Maybe? But yes Anyway, is that even snow? Or is it rain on that UKIE? if we cant get snow out of that setup we should just quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking at the 500's there are still some improvements needed. Not an expert but it seems the problem is that the conflunce ahead of the trough is dampening it out. It does show the 50/50 low in a better spot and a little weaker which I would think will help with that issue. Roughly 6 days away so I am sure there will be many changes but at least it seems that the models are trending in a positive direction. This far out, I would not the modelling to be any different with the 50/50. If you recall both storms back in 2009/2010 started out on the models with a strong vortex that dampened out the storm to our south. As time went on the 50/50 verified too strong/too far south as initially modeled and both events came up the coast more. The bugger in this setup is going to be the southern and northern brach timing their phase perfectly.. if the southern closed low is late or delayed with it's exit - game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GEFS actually isn't terrible. P009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ukmet is 2nd best model in world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ukmet is 2nd best model in world Behind the JMA, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think this puts it all in perspective. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Look at how fast the flow is and all moving parts. It's possible that the ns and ss can link up for the weekend but thinking any model is capable of locking in at this range isn't a good idea. The good news is split flow and vorts zipping along in both streams. Can't get a storm without it. Bad news is no blocking or decent amplification of the flow. It's the proverbial "perfect timing" or "thread the needle" scenario. We'll see I guess but the odds are clearly stacked against us. Haven't had much luck this year so maybe can hit a 16 and draw a 5 against the dealer's 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ukmet is 2nd best model in world verification statistics are not applicable to assessing the potential accuracy of a single event on a regional basis. next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Behind the JMA, right? actually, according to those 5H statistics hey Randy, it's all we got and it's not the worst model of the bunch by any stretch it seems there will be something along the coast this weekend so it's worth tracking, if nothing else (I know, you knew that already ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Do any of you follow, "The Skiing Weatherman" reports? It's another read for those of us trying to get all the information we can. Anyway, I think he's pretty good with his general ideas so I'll link his latest discussion. I usually read it every week but I'm a little late with this one (February 9th). http://www.snocountry.com/index.php/skiing-weatherman/skiing-weatherman/ski-weather-forecast/6169-ski-weather-february-9-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GEFS actually isn't terrible. The ensembles (er, ensemble mean, I guess) have been awful this winter. Glad they are showing something, I guess, but unless or until the OP is showing it, not buying ensembles as a "saving grace".* *Except for the control run of the Euro. That's clearly the one to hang your hat on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 verification statistics are not applicable to assessing the potential accuracy of a single event on a regional basis. next. Well, of course. But we also can't have it both ways. We can't mock the models that perform worse and then turn around and dismiss verification stats when someone is using them to defend a model's legitimacy. Is the UKIE solution correct? Almost certainly no, as we all know. But it is a legit model and its solution is one more data point to add onto the pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Behind the JMA, right? CRAS. Get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well, of course. But we also can't have it both ways. We can't mock the models that perform worse and then turn around and dismiss verification stats when someone is using them to defend a model's legitimacy. Is the UKIE solution correct? Almost certainly no, as we all know. But it is a legit model and its solution is one more data point to add onto the pile. we should probably consider the fact that a lot of weenies completely misuse the verification stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 12z Euro run is the most important run in ji's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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