HM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has another minor event threat for around Valentine's day. .10 or more liquid at around 34 degrees. It is interesting how many light events have happened and are threatening to happen over Maryland this winter. Usually these craptastic winters don't feature this type of thing (usually straight dry / warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It is interesting how many light events have happened and are threatening to happen over Maryland this winter. Usually these craptastic winters don't feature this type of thing (usually straight dry / warm). True, we even have a second one Saturday afternoon with the upper vort. Usually those disappoint but this year, disappointment is a way of life. The gfs is not as bullish as the euro about valentine's day. it actually looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 True, we even have a second one Saturday afternoon with the upper vort. Usually those disappoint but this year, disappointment is a way of life. The gfs is not as bullish as the euro about valentine's day. it actually looks warmer. This upcoming Fri-Sat event and then the one next week are actually mediocre Heather A type of systems. But this is a great lesson to the newbies out there about why using the index is not nearly as useful as seeing where the actual block is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just to chime in on what you guys are saying, the EC ensemble mean would imply that there are possible small chances all the way through d10. Of course, I can see no precip maps. I only have 850 and 500 maps. The 850's don't go above 0 the entire period, and it displays a couple of weak lows here and there. But, wasn't it these same ensembles that about 10 days ago were forecasting this period to be warm. So I guess it's just a discussion piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just to chime in on what you guys are saying, the EC ensemble mean would imply that there are possible small chances all the way through d10. Of course, I can see no precip maps. I only have 850 and 500 maps. The 850's don't go above 0 the entire period, and it displays a couple of weak lows here and there. But, wasn't it these same ensembles that about 10 days ago were forecasting this period to be warm. So I guess it's just a discussion piece. The ECMWF suite was suffering from its issues with resolving the N PAC (relationship to the MJO). Even so, the new scores don't show quite the degradation the other models suffered (embarrassing scores for the GFS and CMC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 True, we even have a second one Saturday afternoon with the upper vort. Usually those disappoint but this year, disappointment is a way of life. The gfs is not as bullish as the euro about valentine's day. it actually looks warmer. Wes, we talked about the ao / nao relationship before and why (generally speaking) they follow each other. I was looking at dailies yesterday and the ao was -2 and the nao was +1. The entire recent run of having a -ao had the nao in + territory seems unusual. I haven't turned the nao dailies into bar graphs yet but it's not very common from what I see on the monthlies but I'm not sure about the dailies. Is the spread between the 2 indices as unusual as I think or am I making something out of nothing? When I look at the indices side by side it feels like things just want to work against us this year. This may happen all the time but if it doesn't, sheesh. We can't win for losing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I realize this is ~10 days out but it's got to make you smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it has been a while since i've seen heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 story of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well it won't look the same next run let alone next week. That is the only positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I realize this is ~10 days out but it's got to make you smile Nope. This thread is for actual threats, not weenie fantasies, especially when the AO will likely be positive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nope. This thread is for actual threats, not weenie fantasies, especially when the AO will likely be positive again. how is that even a weenie fantasy...the model shows a warm rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 how is that even a weenie fantasy...the model shows a warm rainstorm Ok, maybe smile was the wrong word. I was referring to the fact that a storm that pretty in late February would potentially be a huge rainstorm. Maybe "shake your head" should have been said instead of smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I realize this is ~10 days out but it's got to make you smile Not many of us like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like rainstorms. So looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Why do people talk about events at 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Dear Models, If you're gonna tease it, then you better please it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm from Michigan but I'm currently staying in the greater DC area for a fast week. If anything the lack of a true winter was visible like mad while driving through Ohio and PA. At most an inch graced the northern side of the hills. I'm not going to lie I was wishful at the possibility of weekend winter storm rolling up the coast. Needless to say that it looks like I'm **** out of luck. FTW looks like a few flakes at some point this weekend with a powerful arctic front. As touristy as this seems I want a photo of the cheesy DC monuments with a ripping snow background. FWIW...this sub forum is one of the best. I frequent here allot to check the discos for pattern hints. First post is a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like truncation between 192-204 destroyed what would of been a nice snowstorm....some blocking and MJO might help us next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like truncation between 192-204 destroyed what would of been a nice snowstorm....some blocking and MJO might help us next weekend? Give it up dude. Get used to being in the shadow of the mountain top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Give it up dude. Get used to being in the shadow of the mountain top. PD 2.5 dude...we are due for a PD event...its been 9 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 FWIW, 12z CMC going towards big slow moving coastal late next week...Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 FWIW, 12z CMC going towards big slow moving coastal late next week...Hmm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Overall the gfs isn't attractive verbatim but I like some of what I see. It really wants to hold a fairly decent hp right over greenland. There is some amplification too. It's probably worth watching the evolution of the energy coming out of the sw next week. doesn't look like it's going to close off as it exits the mountains and cut. imo- i see some potential for overruning as the energy slides by to our south. long way away but something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol Hey, its a model, albeit terrible, but might as well talk about it, what else do we have? Pitchers and catchers report yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro coming down the pipe with what could be a monster also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro coming down the pipe with what could be a monster also Euro has been straight up MONEY at Day 10 lately. PD3...book it. P.S. +AO, +NAO, -PNA absolutely screams KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has been straight up MONEY at Day 10 lately. PD3...book it. it's a really strange setup....not very conducive to a big storm or any storm for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has been straight up MONEY at Day 10 lately. PD3...book it. haven't had a good euro fantasy storm in a while it seems....let's keep it around until day 4...then lose it to the south...SE snowstorm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's a really strange setup....not very conducive to a big storm or any storm for that matter As I said in my "PS", we haven't had many (any?) KU's with a +AO, +NAO and -PNA like the Euro is advertising at the same time. Doubt we've even had too many 4"+ events. I think Wes's chart has the details for DCA on that one. Map shows -4 - -6 850s, but I assume that means boundary layer temps are in the low 40s? Given our recent trends... Or precip doesn't even reach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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