PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The usual "North and West" areas might scrape out an inch or so of snow per that run. North and west of Buffalo, NY, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The bl is so wtf, why. Anyways, so close to getting the actual coastal moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Holy crap the NAM is brutally warm at the surface. Yeah, not really understanding that with pretty much a due N or NW wind the whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 North and west of Buffalo, NY, maybe. Eh, if it's like the rest of our "winter", it will end up cold enough for mangled flakes for most and an inch or so above the fall line. Which, frankly, I am more than sick of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam crushes my childhood home figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What can be done to get some cold air in here? If the storm intensifies quicker, what else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What can be done to get some cold air in here? If the storm intensifies quicker, what else. i don't get it. The NAM has an plenty of cold to the west...low off ORF...850s -2...thickness 534...even time of day is good being early morning how could we not get some minor snow out of that? Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i don't get it. The NAM has an plenty of cold to the west...low off ORF...850s -2...thickness 534...even time of day is good being early morning how could we not get some minor snow out of that? Frustrating. I personally think minor snow is a distinct possibility as the main energy swings through. Just nothing major worth pouring over the data for hours -- would need a drastic change in what most of the models are spitting out (snd "spitting" may be an apropriate verb at this time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 In the words of Lloyd Christmas: "So your saying there's a chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This one might be easier to use than that one Mitch -- http://vortex.plymou...33527878000.gif thanks, but I'm an old man and can't change my ways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 pretty much everyone n of c va in .1"+ area thru 54.. maybe a smidge more to come after? deja vu again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nearly every single individual ensemble member on the 12z GFS was wetter at 48 hrs than the OP -- http://www.meteo.psu...RS_12z/f48.html yawn...I'm back to DBM...this was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 northern and southern stream only interact to everyone's detriment euro says no again...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 euro says no again...next imho, winter is over we'll never get a diff result in the current mod and strengthening NINA, never maybe a MAR fluke if the NINA really collapses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 imho, winter is over we'll never get a diff result in the current mod and strengthening NINA, never maybe a MAR fluke if the NINA really collapses winter never started Mitch..the stability of the Vortex in AK and the Positive AO for most of this winter set the tone and it started in November when nobody cared what was going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 imho, winter is over we'll never get a diff result in the current mod and strengthening NINA, never maybe a MAR fluke if the NINA really collapses you also thought a -QBO would save us based on utterly uncompellng evidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 They have pooer resolution so won't keep the gradients as tight. Taht might be part of the reason. At this time range, you out to use the sref more than the GEFS. The gesf are for longer range forecasts, the sref for shorter range ones as they have better resolution than the gefs though not as good as the operational. you could tell Yoda that every 5 minutes for 50 years and it would result in absolutely no modification of his posting behavior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 you also thought a -QBO would save us based on utterly uncompellng evidence... with a 2nd year NINA, it was all we had and I said as much and if you go back to the thread and see the years that matched statistically, there were some record breaking ones none of the models that I can recall had the NINA strengthening as it did after Christmas; that's played a large role I think, but whatever remember, I'm just a messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 don't look now, but the Euro is teasing again by day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 you could tell Yoda that every 5 minutes for 50 years and it would result in absolutely no modification of his posting behavior Oh please. At least I am not like some of the other posters. True, I am a bit overboard, and honestly I didn't know the last part, which Wes said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh please. At least I am not like some of the other posters. True, I am a bit overboard, and honestly I didn't know the last part, which Wes said if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh please. At least I am not like some of the other posters. True, I am a bit overboard, and honestly I didn't know the last part, which Wes said I didn't post to be critical and think I have seen others post the GEFS showing nice things inside of 60 hours for other storms. It was meant as a caveat to be wary of using the GEFS at shorter time ranges. If you want to use ensemble guidance, then it's time for the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I wouldnt mind the 18z NAM giving me 12-16 inches of snow for this weekend even though i know its going to be wrong. There is still a nice rush when a model gives you heavy snow for that momentary period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? isn't that kind of like you during winter at times? Anyway, I am slowly working on it. I am getting better slowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? JI, why don't you and the rest of the know-it-alls around here not go down the road of "you admit your problem, so fix it' because that opens everyone up to certain issues they have that they can't or won't admit and then the whole thing gets denigrated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I didn't post to be critical and think I have seen others post the GEFS showing nice things inside of 60 hours for other storms. It was meant as a caveat to be wary of using the GEFS at shorter time ranges. If you want to use ensemble guidance, then it's time for the SREF. I wasn't saying you were Wes. just saying I did not know that last part and I learned from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Any storm potential in the mid range or is this a rerun of Dr Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Any storm potential in the mid range or is this a rerun of Dr Phil? Euro has another minor event threat for around Valentine's day. .10 or more liquid at around 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has another minor event threat for around Valentine's day. .10 or more liquid at around 34 degrees. How romantic - a stroll thru the city in a cold rain. Thanks Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? People in glass houses should not throw stones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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