mattie g Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I head out to Vegas for a work trip on Monday, coming back Friday. It'd be great to come home to an actual snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Haha I really wish everyone could see the control run of the ecmwf over on accupro. It has what appears to be a 975 BECS off ocean city next saturday with 1.9 qpf and -6? 850's... Woof Really? Because the ewall version makes it look like it starts as rain and only catches the colder temps in time to give us some back end snowshowers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Really? Because the ewall version makes it look like it starts as rain and only catches the colder temps in time to give us some back end snowshowers... He is talking about the control run of the Euro that is not the Operational run. It is basically like p001 of the GFS ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Haha I really wish everyone could see the control run of the ecmwf over on accupro. It has what appears to be a 975 BECS off ocean city next saturday with 1.9 qpf and -6? 850's... Woof Please take this crap to the banter thread. This thread is about actual storm threats, not weenie fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Please take this crap to the banter thread. This thread is about actual storm threats, not weenie fantasies. . The euro control is more legit in my eyes than the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 . The euro control is more legit in my eyes than the 18z gfs Do you even know what the ECMWF control run is? It is a low resolution version of the operational ECMWF and the only member in the ensemble run which is not perturbed, I'm sure it is no where near close to the accuracy of any run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Do you even know what the ECMWF control run is? It is a low resolution version of the operational ECMWF and the only member in the ensemble run which is not perturbed, I'm sure it is no where near close to the accuracy of any run of the GFS. I am perturbed by the lack of snow here. I am sure the crappy control run will not help that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 He is talking about the control run of the Euro that is not the Operational run. It is basically like p001 of the GFS ensemble run. Gotcha. Thanks, didn't know that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 you know, i'm not hating the new pattern has much as i thought i would, I feel like there's a chance to role the dice and see what pops out over the next 1 or 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 wouldnt shock me if Thursday started as snow I think i'm more interested in what's after, although the Valentines day stuff sounds interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 why does th euro have to have a near miss on day 7...another week of model-itis followed by failure Is that the same storm coming out of the gulf that the GFS shows a day earlier than the Euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 the Atlantic looks decent by day 5-6...maybe next weekend is legit?....the PAC looks pretty awful though You better hope it does not or ABC1234 will be trolling everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 yes...it's a gulf low..and it goes mostly OTS, but the atlantic setup makes it kind of interesting..we have lots of time to obsess over this one if it looks like a legit threat Great, so i will have a 2 a.m. bedtime the next 7 days only to watch it blow up 200 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 yes...it's a gulf low..and it goes mostly OTS, but the atlantic setup makes it kind of interesting..we have lots of time to obsess over this one if it looks like a legit threat LOL, GFS has it trying to cut. This week will be hell. I'll be red-eyeing it every night with nothing to show for it come crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL, GFS has it trying to cut. This week will be hell. I'll be red-eyeing it every night with nothing to show for it come crunch time. A middle of the road compromise would make our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 it is a lot of moving parts....we are going to have to time something and that is going to be a low probability through the end of winter I would think,....The reason this run is interesting is a weak -NAO ridge in very good position pops with very good timing....If we actually get ridging over Baffin Island later this week it might change things I hope you will be up late every night this week or i am calling Randy to get your number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I wont ....I am starting a new job....I wont be up for the euro this week I dont think... That sucks, good luck with your new job though. Hopefully it will become legit enough to force you to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 the sfc low from the GOM gets out just ahead of the trough so we dont get a phase in time...whats the difference?...next run will be all rain and then the run after that will be 0.02" QPF of snow and then the run after that will have 850 temps of +20 A few of the 06Z gefs members like the system so it's worth watching though it is probably a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 A few of the 06Z gefs members like the system so it's worth watching though it is probably a long shot. Dave is ranting about the Euro and how the H5 maps don't match the SFC. Saying the SFC low should be closer to the coast and that MD/VA/ should have a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I believe this is our last week for any kind of hope so I'm going to hop on the almost sunken Wes boat and see if we can salvage anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Dave is ranting about the Euro and how the H5 maps don't match the SFC. Saying the SFC low should be closer to the coast and that MD/VA/ should have a snowstorm. Heck, I could see it in the Oh Valley too given that's where there is a closed 500 low. I do think that is a window of opportunity and beyond that time, the pattern probably will get worse as the ao looks to go positive or neutral with the pacific ridge shifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 One of these days we're gonna see a legitimate threat on a 12z run that is four days away only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 One of these days we're gonna see a legitimate threat on a 12z run that is four days away only. It's looking like that day will probably come next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Heck, I could see it in the Oh Valley too given that's where there is a closed 500 low. I do think that is a window of opportunity and beyond that time, the pattern probably will get worse as the ao looks to go positive or neutral with the pacific ridge shifting west. This is our last hope. Hold me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 So the GFS looks terrible...looks promising at first...High sliding down almost in tandem with the gulf low...but the s/w gets crushed. There's another coming on it's heels, but that'll cut west...mark it. I think this is our last hope, seriously. And the uber sun angle which will set you ablaze upon stepping out of your house this time of year...we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 So the GFS looks terrible...looks promising at first...High sliding down almost in tandem with the gulf low...but the s/w gets crushed. There's another coming on it's heels, but that'll cut west...mark it. I think this is our last hope, seriously. And the uber sun angle which will set you ablaze upon stepping out of your house this time of year...we're done. Calm down. It's the 180 hour GFS... 12 hrs ago it had it running up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 At least winter went out with a big bang.. Almost like 2 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The setup next weekend in the Atlantic is forecasted to be somewhat decent, with ridging nosing up into the souther Greenland and Davis straight area. So just need some good timing with the ejection of the closed low in Mexico. The tendency has been for those to close off and sit down there all winter... I think the control run storm for next weekend is a very low probability, but at least some thing to watch as the Atlantic looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calm down. It's the 180 hour GFS... 12 hrs ago it had it running up the apps Thanks for telling to calm down. Without you, I would have immediately assumed the GFS at 180 hours was a lock. Thank God for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i'd just take it as it comes until around 3/10......after that anything decent here in dc is pretty anomalous.... Sure. And of course the GFS is going to flip. My comment was more due to the pattern going back into the crapper after this "last shot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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