Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 does anyone know why mjo phase 2 is warm in central new york but cold in western NY? https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/167391886460469248/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if the front times right it could be OK ... especially in this season. tho convection near the low could be tricky too.. i doubt it will be much juicier than this even if models go that way. surface temps on the gfs look colder than forecast for today at least and they were too warm. Even though this pattern still blows there are at least more threats. At some point we will score a legitimate 1-3 inch storm if we keep getting these chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, clearly 0z models are seeing something with sharpening the trough just a tad. Whether its a trend or not is the question. My guess is Euro has something, 6z gets better and with everyone waiting for 12z, it deflates and we're back to bemoaning how screwed we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 man, even that 102 hr map looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 .25 of qpf is really .15 divided by 1/2 of rain and .04 of non accumulating wet snow. total: 0.03 of accumulating snow. Congrats You are annoying enough as an overly optimistic weenie. Your sad, depressed version is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, clearly 0z models are seeing something with sharpening the trough just a tad. Whether its a trend or not is the question. My guess is Euro has something, 6z gets better and with everyone waiting for 12z, it deflates and we're back to bemoaning how screwed we are. Good thing Wes is snoozing because I'm sure he'd find some issue we are all missing. I bet there is a kicker. Yeah, haven't heard about that bogeyman much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, clearly 0z models are seeing something with sharpening the trough just a tad. Whether its a trend or not is the question. My guess is Euro has something, 6z gets better and with everyone waiting for 12z, it deflates and we're back to bemoaning how screwed we are. dont see how it comes together quick enough to get the low up to us.. i think there's pretty good consensus of a low forming near nc tho. we can draw some of that moisture -- question is how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 man, even that 102 hr map looks interesting I don't think it does... I think that's the wave that gets sheared out before our monster cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, clearly 0z models are seeing something with sharpening the trough just a tad. Whether its a trend or not is the question. My guess is Euro has something, 6z gets better and with everyone waiting for 12z, it deflates and we're back to bemoaning how screwed we are. go to bed. See you in Dec 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think it does... I think that's the wave that gets sheared out before our monster cutter next week's not set in stone i don't think. it would be nice to see the euro be more friendly but there's still a tendency for some blocking potential that might help us out. that low's not 100% a cutter yet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 dont see how it comes together quick enough to get the low up to us.. i think there's pretty good consensus of a low forming near nc tho. we can draw some of that moisture -- question is how much. we need that low to do a loop de loop like it did for us in the March 2001 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think it does... I think that's the wave that gets sheared out before our monster cutter well, a -NAO block had just formed, but it looks like the later panels has it weakening and so it's a no go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You are annoying enough as an overly optimistic weenie. Your sad, depressed version is even worse. ive never been called an overly optimistic on anything before? but thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ive never been called an overly optimistic on anything before? but thanks you two need a room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 a 578 block near Greenland in February should typically help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 a 578 block near Greenland in February should typically help us so should -3C to -5C 850s during precipitation but neither have or nor will they this year it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the airmass is total garbage.. maybe the gfs is putting the high in the wrong spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the airmass is total garbage.. maybe the gfs is putting the high in the wrong spot Yeah. Can we move to Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Those are some powerful closed vorts at 159... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Those are some powerful closed vorts at 159... the plains might be back this spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 actually that could be a good event next week (for plains svr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 actually that could be a good event next week (for plains svr) And into MS/AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 a 578 block near Greenland in February should typically help us The PV is way to strong to undercut it. 480DM isn't staying south of 578DM. If it was a 510DM under a 558DM it probably would stick around much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 And into MS/AL maybe.. e ok/etx inro ar/la mainly that day.. lifts northeast pretty hard. (totally unimportant to this thread anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Storms for us next Thursday evening Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 216... um what the heck? A magical Miller A develops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 216... um what the heck? There is absolutely no reason to look at the GFS past 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 we can't even get a fantasy storm right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 There is absolutely no reason to look at the GFS past 100 hours. I am looking at it to discern to see if the run even suggests a future winter potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 There is absolutely no reason to look at the GFS past 100 hours. i dunno the pattern at 500 looks pretty simple before truncation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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