SNO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 In the words of Lloyd Christmas: "So your saying there's a chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This one might be easier to use than that one Mitch -- http://vortex.plymou...33527878000.gif thanks, but I'm an old man and can't change my ways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 pretty much everyone n of c va in .1"+ area thru 54.. maybe a smidge more to come after? deja vu again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 northern and southern stream only interact to everyone's detriment euro says no again...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 euro says no again...next imho, winter is over we'll never get a diff result in the current mod and strengthening NINA, never maybe a MAR fluke if the NINA really collapses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 imho, winter is over we'll never get a diff result in the current mod and strengthening NINA, never maybe a MAR fluke if the NINA really collapses winter never started Mitch..the stability of the Vortex in AK and the Positive AO for most of this winter set the tone and it started in November when nobody cared what was going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 you also thought a -QBO would save us based on utterly uncompellng evidence... with a 2nd year NINA, it was all we had and I said as much and if you go back to the thread and see the years that matched statistically, there were some record breaking ones none of the models that I can recall had the NINA strengthening as it did after Christmas; that's played a large role I think, but whatever remember, I'm just a messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 don't look now, but the Euro is teasing again by day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 you could tell Yoda that every 5 minutes for 50 years and it would result in absolutely no modification of his posting behavior Oh please. At least I am not like some of the other posters. True, I am a bit overboard, and honestly I didn't know the last part, which Wes said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh please. At least I am not like some of the other posters. True, I am a bit overboard, and honestly I didn't know the last part, which Wes said if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh please. At least I am not like some of the other posters. True, I am a bit overboard, and honestly I didn't know the last part, which Wes said I didn't post to be critical and think I have seen others post the GEFS showing nice things inside of 60 hours for other storms. It was meant as a caveat to be wary of using the GEFS at shorter time ranges. If you want to use ensemble guidance, then it's time for the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I wouldnt mind the 18z NAM giving me 12-16 inches of snow for this weekend even though i know its going to be wrong. There is still a nice rush when a model gives you heavy snow for that momentary period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? isn't that kind of like you during winter at times? Anyway, I am slowly working on it. I am getting better slowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? JI, why don't you and the rest of the know-it-alls around here not go down the road of "you admit your problem, so fix it' because that opens everyone up to certain issues they have that they can't or won't admit and then the whole thing gets denigrated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I didn't post to be critical and think I have seen others post the GEFS showing nice things inside of 60 hours for other storms. It was meant as a caveat to be wary of using the GEFS at shorter time ranges. If you want to use ensemble guidance, then it's time for the SREF. I wasn't saying you were Wes. just saying I did not know that last part and I learned from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Any storm potential in the mid range or is this a rerun of Dr Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Any storm potential in the mid range or is this a rerun of Dr Phil? Euro has another minor event threat for around Valentine's day. .10 or more liquid at around 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has another minor event threat for around Valentine's day. .10 or more liquid at around 34 degrees. How romantic - a stroll thru the city in a cold rain. Thanks Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if your a bit overboard..and you admit it...why stay that way? People in glass houses should not throw stones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has another minor event threat for around Valentine's day. .10 or more liquid at around 34 degrees. It is interesting how many light events have happened and are threatening to happen over Maryland this winter. Usually these craptastic winters don't feature this type of thing (usually straight dry / warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It is interesting how many light events have happened and are threatening to happen over Maryland this winter. Usually these craptastic winters don't feature this type of thing (usually straight dry / warm). True, we even have a second one Saturday afternoon with the upper vort. Usually those disappoint but this year, disappointment is a way of life. The gfs is not as bullish as the euro about valentine's day. it actually looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 True, we even have a second one Saturday afternoon with the upper vort. Usually those disappoint but this year, disappointment is a way of life. The gfs is not as bullish as the euro about valentine's day. it actually looks warmer. This upcoming Fri-Sat event and then the one next week are actually mediocre Heather A type of systems. But this is a great lesson to the newbies out there about why using the index is not nearly as useful as seeing where the actual block is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just to chime in on what you guys are saying, the EC ensemble mean would imply that there are possible small chances all the way through d10. Of course, I can see no precip maps. I only have 850 and 500 maps. The 850's don't go above 0 the entire period, and it displays a couple of weak lows here and there. But, wasn't it these same ensembles that about 10 days ago were forecasting this period to be warm. So I guess it's just a discussion piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just to chime in on what you guys are saying, the EC ensemble mean would imply that there are possible small chances all the way through d10. Of course, I can see no precip maps. I only have 850 and 500 maps. The 850's don't go above 0 the entire period, and it displays a couple of weak lows here and there. But, wasn't it these same ensembles that about 10 days ago were forecasting this period to be warm. So I guess it's just a discussion piece. The ECMWF suite was suffering from its issues with resolving the N PAC (relationship to the MJO). Even so, the new scores don't show quite the degradation the other models suffered (embarrassing scores for the GFS and CMC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 True, we even have a second one Saturday afternoon with the upper vort. Usually those disappoint but this year, disappointment is a way of life. The gfs is not as bullish as the euro about valentine's day. it actually looks warmer. Wes, we talked about the ao / nao relationship before and why (generally speaking) they follow each other. I was looking at dailies yesterday and the ao was -2 and the nao was +1. The entire recent run of having a -ao had the nao in + territory seems unusual. I haven't turned the nao dailies into bar graphs yet but it's not very common from what I see on the monthlies but I'm not sure about the dailies. Is the spread between the 2 indices as unusual as I think or am I making something out of nothing? When I look at the indices side by side it feels like things just want to work against us this year. This may happen all the time but if it doesn't, sheesh. We can't win for losing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I realize this is ~10 days out but it's got to make you smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it has been a while since i've seen heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 story of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well it won't look the same next run let alone next week. That is the only positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I realize this is ~10 days out but it's got to make you smile Nope. This thread is for actual threats, not weenie fantasies, especially when the AO will likely be positive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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