PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not that it really matters at this point, but there've been a couple. Probably the best was the first week of January when it showed MECS day 7 on a 12z run, everyone said they "expected the GFS to jump on board soon," and the Euro lost it on the next run. I'm pretty sure that's the one where DT immediately created a "Euro snow map" showing what the Euro showed verbatim, but maybe I'm thinking about another instance. Yes, I forgot that one. I won't ask how you remembered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I won't ask how you remembered that. It was only a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The temps again are a problem when the precip arrives even with the event coming at night. The cold air doesn't really get in until the front comes through and the precip probably will be out ahead of it. Another cold aloft and warm at the surface event. That's fine for Leesburg and places with a little elevation but we're dealing with another moisture starved system with temp issues. The only saving grace is the time of day. I'd like to see it hold off for a few more hours. Of course, we're also talking about the nam which hasn't been very good during the last couple of pseudo events. Good points...But just based on the model, its slightly hard to believe it wont snow with the 0c line down in Nofolk and -5C line over DC/Balt....stickage is another story though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Good points...But just based on the model, its slightly hard to believe it wont snow with the 0c line down in Nofolk and -5C line over DC/Balt....stickage is another story though uh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It was only a month ago. I try to forget individual model runs right after they happen, but then again there are people here who remember what color shirt they were wearing back in 1984 when they received 2 inches of snow during an event where it started as rain at 3:30 PM and turned to snow from 5:45 to 9:20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Good points...But just based on the model, its slightly hard to believe it wont snow with the 0c line down in Nofolk and -5C line over DC/Balt....stickage is another story though Were your blinds closed today or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Were your blinds closed today or something? I thought generally todays 850s were -2,-3...looks a little colder for Saturday to me...maybe Im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I try to forget individual model runs right after they happen, but then again there are people here who remember what color shirt they were wearing back in 1984 when they received 2 inches of snow during an event where it started as rain at 3:30 PM and turned to snow from 5:45 to 9:20. I remember that event... it all started on a cloudy day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS stronger with the vort in NM at 24 compared to 18z... yeah I know. But its something? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If I see actual 100% snow fall for 1 minute, it will be an improvement over the last 2 events 40% would be an improvement for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I try to forget individual model runs right after they happen, but then again there are people here who remember what color shirt they were wearing back in 1984 when they received 2 inches of snow during an event where it started as rain at 3:30 PM and turned to snow from 5:45 to 9:20. Lol. I forget pretty much every individual run after like a month, but certain ones just stay with me if fhey are really big. I had only just started posting (lurking) on WWBB, but I still remember the 0z ETA run on the Friday night before PDS2 that dropped close to 3" of QPF on us. Everyone was stunned (despite the wet bias ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the gfs is marginally better with the trough orientation thru 48 if you're holding out hope. it's still not going to happen though. maybe we can squeeze out like .2" from what gets pulled north if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the gfs is marginally better with the trough orientation thru 48 if you're holding out hope. it's still not going to happen though. maybe we can squeeze out like .2" from what gets pulled north if we're lucky. hopefully temps arent a problem...snow can stick at night...rain cant....I'd take 1/2" happily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hopefully temps arent a problem...snow can stick at night...rain cant....I'd take 1/2" happily gfs is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs is wetter 1010 L on land extreme E NC at 57. 0c 2m line basically cuts down BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hour60 is going to pull some folk back in-- not too different between NAM and GFS with a stripe of something overnight Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I "think" this looks better too, especially from earlier runs red taggers??? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F09%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=300_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=057&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 gfs is wetter yes...it's 0.25"....but we know the deal..we'll get 0.15 or so....we just need precip type to be snow and it come at night and we could actually get a sloppy inch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yes...it's 0.25"....but we know the deal..we'll get 0.15 or so....we just need precip type to be snow and it come at night and we could actually get a sloppy inch.... road trip to maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 road trip to maine? why?...GFS says it is an 18 hour event.....of course we know it will last 2-3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yes...it's 0.25"....but we know the deal..we'll get 0.15 or so....we just need precip type to be snow and it come at night and we could actually get a sloppy inch.... It's going to be painful watching the temps needing to drop from the upper-40's/50 in the afternoon to 34 for some sticking before the precip shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yes...it's 0.25"....but we know the deal..we'll get 0.15 or so....we just need precip type to be snow and it come at night and we could actually get a sloppy inch.... OK, I'm officially getting sucked back in therefore, can we ignore the trend of the models when they all are clearly going the right direction? 2+ days left for better....or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 funny how euro had this solution for a few days and then the american models finally come around to it. What a joke our models are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 why?...GFS says it is an 18 hour event.....of course we know it will last 2-3 hours i could see this one backing into new england or at least that area... it could bomb offshore at some point not too far off. tho the trough it still super slow to turn even with a low developing somewhere near the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Getting hard to dismiss this one, I guess. I'd sure like a bigger cushion than .25, though. Let's juice this baby up so when we have to cut QPF in half during the event we still have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 my company has an office in Halifax..NS..hmm...time for a site visit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Getting hard to dismiss this one, I guess. I'd sure like a bigger cushion than .25, though. Let's juice this baby up so when we have to cut QPF in half during the event we still have something. its going to be hard to get it juiced up....I think the best case scenario is we get some backbuilding....you are probably in a better spot as usual....the same issues with the last 2 events apply.....except night time is the right time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Getting hard to dismiss this one, I guess. I'd sure like a bigger cushion than .25, though. Let's juice this baby up so when we have to cut QPF in half during the event we still have something. .25 of qpf is really .15 divided by 1/2 of rain and .04 of non accumulating wet snow. total: 0.03 of accumulating snow. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Getting hard to dismiss this one, I guess. I'd sure like a bigger cushion than .25, though. Let's juice this baby up so when we have to cut QPF in half during the event we still have something. if the front times right it could be OK ... especially in this season. tho convection near the low could be tricky too.. i doubt it will be much juicier than this even if models go that way. surface temps on the gfs look colder than forecast for today at least and they were too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS tripple Phases over New Foundland. Brings us another light marginal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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