Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I hate this sh-it....we need help....dont keep looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, NAM is as close as its gotten so far with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I hate this sh-it....we need help....dont keep looking Just accept you have a sickness and embrace it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I hate this sh-it....we need help....dont keep looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Low off obx @ 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Then looking at the 2m temps at 54 hour and seeing almost an exact carbon copy of today's map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Damn..........please don't suck me in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it looks mostl like it has and/or other models have. we'll get some precip probably mainly from the front but perhaps with some enhancement from any wave. the trough is still too progressive without full phase in the right spot. it's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GD NAM is going to sucker me back into this when I know DAMN WELL this won't end well for us. What the f*ck is wrong me? Why can't we can be normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Then looking at the 2m temps at 54 hour and seeing almost an exact carbon copy of today's map.... The cold air will manufacture it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 meh.........I'll be happy with another inch. If it's not going to phase, then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 little bastardi is sorta onboard which should tell you what you need to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hopefully this stays a FRi night event like the models have been advertising, so I can expect a mangled coating on some trash can lids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the trough needs to be sharper (less broad and round at the bottom for the newbies) in order to pull the storm close enough to the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F09%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=057&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M the problem is, it's so broad it isn't even progged to hit ENE with more than a scrapper and, if you check surface temps on the NAM, we're above freezing when that .1" qpf falls aaaaaaaagain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 little bastardi is sorta onboard which should tell you what you need to know https://www.facebook...&type=1 Apparently the low is coming in from the NE and riding down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 im going to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 we know this how this story goes....the NAM will keep improving for the next 24-36 hours with at least one run with 0.30"+ QPF and a cold boundary layer.....Canadian will show a full phase and a 976mb low off of Ocean City, MD........Euro will show 0.07" of QPF with surface temps in the upper 40s.....guess which model will be closest to the final solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the trough needs to be sharper (less broad and round at the bottom for the newbies) in order to pull the storm close enough to the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M the problem is, it's so broad it isn't even progged to hit ENE with more than a scrapper and, if you check surface temps on the NAM, we're above freezing when that .1" qpf falls aaaaaaaagain we'd need to the trough to head neutral earlier.. there has been little to no indication of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the trough needs to be sharper (less broad and round at the bottom for the newbies) in order to pull the storm close enough to the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M the problem is, it's so broad it isn't even progged to hit ENE with more than a scrapper and, if you check surface temps on the NAM, we're above freezing when that .1" qpf falls aaaaaaaagain Its at night... so it should be snow IMO... but the way this winter has gone... all bets are off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 we know this how this story goes....the NAM will keep improving for the next 24-36 hours with at least one run with 0.30"+ QPF and a cold boundary layer.....Canadian will show a full phase and a 976mb low off of Ocean City, MD........Euro will show 0.07" of QPF with surface temps in the upper 40s.....guess which model will be closest to the final solution? so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hopefully this stays a FRi night event like the models have been advertising, so I can expect a mangled coating on some trash can lids The temps again are a problem when the precip arrives even with the event coming at night. The cold air doesn't really get in until the front comes through and the precip probably will be out ahead of it. Another cold aloft and warm at the surface event. That's fine for Leesburg and places with a little elevation but we're dealing with another moisture starved system with temp issues. The only saving grace is the time of day. I'd like to see it hold off for a few more hours. Of course, we're also talking about the nam which hasn't been very good during the last couple of pseudo events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The temps again are a problem when the precip arrives even with the event coming at night. The cold air doesn't really get in until the front comes through and the precip probably will be out ahead of it. Another cold aloft and warm at the surface event. That's fine for Leesburg and places with a little elevation but we're dealing with another moisture starved system with temp issues. The only saving grace is the time of day. I'd like to see it hold off for a few more hours. Of course, we're also talking about the nam which hasn't been very good during the last couple of pseudo events. If I see actual 100% snow fall for 1 minute, it will be an improvement over the last 2 events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 we'd need to the trough to head neutral earlier.. there has been little to no indication of that. that ain't happening either because the PV is sitting over the eastern shore of Hudson Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If I see actual 100% snow fall for 1 minute, it will be an improvement over the last 2 events I think towards the end I was all snow but it was so light it was hard to care. Anything pretty much is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If I see actual 100% snow fall for 1 minute, it will be an improvement over the last 2 events im giving you the naming rights to the storm back, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's legitimate like the Washington Wizards are legitimate....It is professional model, but with a 4-20 record They are actually much better than that, they are 5-21 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 No reason to forecast against persistence. I predict a marginal event with almost no moisture and that what does fall is mostly snizzle. I also predict a deck shot from either Westminster or Frederick and possibly the usual trixie stop sign pic with moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 No reason to forecast against persistence. I predict a marginal event with almost no moisture and that what does fall is mostly snizzle. I also predict a deck shot from either Westminster or Frederick and possibly the usual trixie stop sign pic with moderate snow. I predict the Euro in the next 2 runs will come in with .20 or more QPF and we will all be sucked back in and we will get the same crap storm we had today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I predict the Euro in the next 2 runs will come in with .20 or more QPF and we will all be sucked back in and we will get the same crap storm we had today. The Euro hasn't had a good run for us in months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The Euro hasn't had a good run for us in months. Not that it really matters at this point, but there've been a couple. Probably the best was the first week of January when it showed MECS day 7 on a 12z run, everyone said they "expected the GFS to jump on board soon," and the Euro lost it on the next run. I'm pretty sure that's the one where DT immediately created a "Euro snow map" showing what the Euro showed verbatim, but maybe I'm thinking about another instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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