clueless Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 If we get a solid inch this weekend I would be thrilled. Today was just pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We have a much better chance of an inch or two this weekend compared to today's excuse for an event, at least in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We have a much better chance of an inch or two this weekend compared to today's excuse for an event, at least in these parts. and an inch or 2 for today looked real good 2-3 days ago the writing is on the wall again for this weekend with the computers...warm BL issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 and an inch or 2 for today looked real good 2-3 days ago the writing is on the wall again for this weekend with the computers...warm BL issues I'd say in association with an arctic airmass we have a bit better chance, what do you think at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Monday, February 20 is our next chance and possibly the last for the season. It could flurry this weekend but big whoop-de-do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Monday, February 20 is our next chance and possibly the last for the season. It could flurry this weekend but big whoop-de-do. Why that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Monday, February 20 is our next chance and possibly the last for the season. It could flurry this weekend but big whoop-de-do. There's usually legit chances through the first week of March around here. But anything that falls is usually a wet sloppy mess and gone by the end of the day. No reason to punt on the remainder of Feb, but I would be fine if the pattern continues as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nothing in the long range that really shows me anything. Our pattern has been crappy and it is only going to get worse. (AO is going positive) & the (NAO is staying positive) yeah there can be surprises, but I am not buying it at this moment yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 At this point, unless something REAL shows up soon, I am ready for the return to warm spring-like weather. I have been hoping like the rest of the snow lovers for something to eke out in the models and give us some winter weather. But it's just about time to say "SPRING!". We've gone through the dark days of winter with hardly a cold snap. It's time to look forward to the warmth of the sun angle and sitting in the yard next to the grill with a cold beer in hand. I am in agreement with many others when it comes to a "car topping" snow... it aint enough! Nice, but not enough. Okay. I am through ranting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 There's usually legit chances through the first week of March around here. But anything that falls is usually a wet sloppy mess and gone by the end of the day. No reason to punt on the remainder of Feb, but I would be fine if the pattern continues as is. So far, every snow we have had has been a wet sloppy mess - so I am hoping for anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nothing in the long range that really shows me anything. Our pattern has been crappy and it is only going to get worse. (AO is going positive) & the (NAO is staying positive) yeah there can be surprises, but I am not buying it at this moment yet. I thought the NAO was going negative starting this weekend for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Maybe this weekend but I really think it's just a tease. If this winter wants to go out like a bang, then keep your fingers crossed for the 1st week of March like in 2009. NAO & AO are going on a suck ride soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We at least need a few more really hard freezes to make sure the bug season is not horrible. So you people calling for spring weather need to hold off. Unless you want a stink bug onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What is interesting is the ao dropped down below -3 but the nao never went negative. I've been just too busy to sit quietly and finish the daily nao graphs for a side by side comparison with ao. However, I do know it is very unusual to have a large - or + anomaly for the ao and have the nao not follow it. Especially on a monthly average. There are pretty much no occurances of the ao being more than +1 or less than -1 average for the month and have the NAO not in the same + or - territory. Wes already explained this for me but I don't remember it clearly enough to post here. Anyway, look at this: I'll dig into the statistal part of this eventually but even right now we have an ao @ -2 and a nao @ +1. This is just not that common. Then of course you can look at this: Looks like we actually will get the MJO to do the 8-1 cycle pretty soon. The question is, will it do what it's supposed to do or will some other teleconnection or oscillation negate the typical response here along the EC? I'm not sure how it will shake out but you gotta wonder if having multiple teleconnections work in tandem in our favor ever happens this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Maybe this weekend but I really think it's just a tease. If this winter wants to go out like a bang, then keep your fingers crossed for the 1st week of March like in 2009. NAO & AO are going on a suck ride soon. I wouldn't expect too much. I think the scenario of getting a productive period with a good pattern is the least likely scenario. I think the high end ceiling is one 4-8" event with a couple cartoppers thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What is interesting is the ao dropped down below -3 but the nao never went negative. I've been just too busy to sit quietly and finish the daily nao graphs for a side by side comparison with ao. However, I do know it is very unusual to have a large - or + anomaly for the ao and have the nao not follow it. Especially on a monthly average. There are pretty much no occurances of the ao being more than +1 or less than -1 average for the month and have the NAO not in the same + or - territory. Wes already explained this for me but I don't remember it clearly enough to post here. Anyway, look at this: I'll dig into the statistal part of this eventually but even right now we have an ao @ -2 and a nao @ +1. This is just not that common. Then of course you can look at this: Looks like we actually will get the MJO to do the 8-1 cycle pretty soon. The question is, will it do what it's supposed to do or will some other teleconnection or oscillation negate the typical response here along the EC? I'm not sure how it will shake out but you gotta wonder if having multiple teleconnections work in tandem in our favor ever happens this winter. Interesting stats. For as nice as it is to finally see the MJO moving into favorable phases seeing it nose dive close to the circle of death is a bit disheartening. Goes again to what you say about wondering if we can ever get a number of indices to get their acts together for a brief period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This weekend is a no go for me. Model tease, just has you wishing please. Like I said early, the AO & NAO are getting ready to go positive big time in my book and winter is just about done. Maybe the 1st week of March like 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Interesting stats. For as nice as it is to finally see the MJO moving into favorable phases seeing it nose dive close to the circle of death is a bit disheartening. Goes again to what you say about wondering if we can ever get a number of indices to get their acts together for a brief period of time. One thing about the mjo, forecasting beyone about 5 days or so gets really bad. That same nosedive was supposed to happen in octant 6, then 7, and now 8. I think it does make it through 8-1-possibly 2 but that is really just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So look...I'm pretty sure its long gone and the weekend is toast...but look at the 0z NAM at 36 and compare it to 12z today at 48 at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I actually looked at the SREF for the weekend. Early in the winter I didn't even care that it sucked. I think I just figured 1) we're losing cold time and 2) we'll make up for it at least somewhat later. Now I find myself looking at every run even more than before... trying to find the magic bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So look...I'm pretty sure its long gone and the weekend is toast...but look at the 0z NAM at 36 and compare it to 12z today at 48 at h5 if we have a another event to track I am making a NAM/Canadian free thread, unless it is a MET.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So look...I'm pretty sure its long gone and the weekend is toast...but look at the 0z NAM at 36 and compare it to 12z today at 48 at h5 too bad the nam is awful. but i kinda hope we get a run or two where it hits us. this will be a last yr type storm at best. book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if we have a another event to track I am making a NAM/Canadian free thread, unless it is a MET.... blah..CMC I can see, but NAM is somewhat legitimate...although it blows...its not on the CMC level. Dude, I'm desperate, come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 too bad the nam is awful. but i kinda hope we get a run or two where it hits us. this will be a last yr type storm at best. book it. The NAM is awful..but what else we got between now and GFS/Euro time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 blah..CMC I can see, but NAM is somewhat legitimate...although it blows...its not on the CMC level. Dude, I'm desperate, come on. It's legitimate like the Washington Wizards are legitimate....It is professional model, but with a 4-20 record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Going by H5, the NAM is up to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's legitimate like the Washington Wizards are legitimate....It is professional model, but with a 4-20 record True dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Going by H5, the NAM is up to something I dunno at 48... there is a weak s/w in SE TX... and something in MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Stephen Hawking runs faster than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well thats a surprise at 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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