Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Well, might as well ask... did todays 12z EURO repeat what it did last night on its 00z run on Day 3/4? it's still closer than the other models and squeezes out .1" with the arctic front. i seriously doubt we get the storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Spring is here. And has been for awhile. No it hasn't, it's been he almost all winter (I love the irony of that statement) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro has about .20 qpf of precip this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro has about .20 qpf of precip this weekend Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Snow? ya mostly snow...850 temps are well below zero but temp hits 40 on saturday before the front drops the temps....I would say that euro says safely that everyone gets about 1-1.5 inches of powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ya mostly snow...850 temps are well below zero but temp hits 40 on saturday before the front drops the temps....I would say that euro says safely that everyone gets about 1-1.5 inches of powder Would be nice... if it came true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ya mostly snow...850 temps are well below zero but temp hits 40 on saturday before the front drops the temps....I would say that euro says safely that everyone gets about 1-1.5 inches of powder Wunderground maps say otherwise less than an inch of snow per the snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I just breezed through the euro but it looks like some good les stuff setting up this weekend. I'm seriously going to consider making the trip to keysers ridge. It might be worth it just for kicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z NAM has the coastal low further north than 12z run. Maybe a trend is beginning. Maybe we can get lucky just once this year and have a phase take place at the VA/NC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z NAM has the coastal low further north than 12z run. Maybe a trend is beginning. Maybe we can get lucky just once this year and have a phase take place at the VA/NC line. Its still offshore a good 200 miles... but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 i've had to eat my words before but i think everyone is really reaching if they think there is any chance to get in on a coastal this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 i've had to eat my words before but i think everyone is really reaching if they think there is any chance to get in on a coastal this weekend. #faithincoastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 #faithincoastal? Maybe Berk will buy the rights to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 #faithincoastal? not really. im not that shocked it's teasing a bit as i said that a few days ago -- not just to annoy snow lovers either. it's not impossible but it's highly unlikely as far as im concerned. slightly better shot for new england but still pretty low odds i'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I don't remember details nearly as well as some on here. In the last 5 years, have the models ever picked up on coastal at this range without showing it a few times and then losing it again? These events don't really sneak up on the models in the semi-short range anymore. I wouldn't be upset at the models at all if a historic reverse bust happened this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 not really. im not that shocked it's teasing a bit as i said that a few days ago -- not just to annoy snow lovers either. it's not impossible but it's highly unlikely as far as im concerned. slightly better shot for new england but still pretty low odds i'd think. It's not happening. And I'm one of the most optimistic people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 if this weekend doesn't work, I'm as close as I've ever been to throwing in the towel this early in a season, and I'm going back to 72/73 I said too many times last year the seasonal pattern was killing us and I resisted in mentioning that phrase this year, but enough is enough we need a drought, famine and flood of Biblical proportion to wipe the slate clean and start all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It's not happening. And I'm one of the most optimistic people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 if this weekend doesn't work, I'm as close as I've ever been to throwing in the towel this early in a season, and I'm going back to 72/73 I said too many times last year the seasonal pattern was killing us and I resisted in mentioning that phrase this year, but enough is enough we need a drought, famine and flood of Biblical proportion to wipe the slate clean and start all over When the craptastic pattern set up back in November, I thought to myself that the chances of a winter not having a decent period (decent meaning like 10 days or so) have to be really slim. After I got finished looking at all the daily and monthly ao/nao data for the last 60 yeas, I realized that it is very possible that it can happen. Cold has been absent pretty much everywhere this winter. How many people saw that coming? NE has had a horrible snow season, people can't snowmobile pretty much anywhere in the northern plains, lake effect regions are brown, and most of the rocky mtn ski areas are having a terrible snow season. Lakes that always freeze aren't frozen. Flowers and bugs are happening in the MA. Coast to coast, this has to be one of the most benign winters in alot of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm hard headed, but I've been beaten down way too much this winter to even fake optimism anymore. I'm going to stop pretended I'm satisfied with a car topper or a coating on the grass when I'm not. Would it be nice? Sure...I certainly wouldn't punt or ignore it...but it doesn't excite me at all. It's not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 When the craptastic pattern set up back in November, I thought to myself that the chances of a winter not having a decent period (decent meaning like 10 days or so) have to be really slim. After I got finished looking at all the daily and monthly ao/nao data for the last 60 yeas, I realized that it is very possible that it can happen. Cold has been absent pretty much everywhere this winter. How many people saw that coming? NE has had a horrible snow season, people can't snowmobile pretty much anywhere in the northern plains, lake effect regions are brown, and most of the rocky mtn ski areas are having a terrible snow season. Lakes that always freeze aren't frozen. Flowers and bugs are happening in the MA. Coast to coast, this has to be one of the most benign winters in alot of years. To me, that's good news. Next winter, it can only get better! Nowhere to go but up from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm hard headed, but I've been beaten down way too much this winter to even fake optimism anymore. I'm going to stop pretended I'm satisfied with a car topper or a coating on the grass when I'm not. Would it be nice? Sure...I certainly wouldn't punt or ignore it...but it doesn't excite me at all. It's not enough. Agreed. I refuse to pretend 1" is exciting at this point. I'll take it of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z sure was trying to pop something right near ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the good news is most every model gives us snow from the northern stream/arctic front. best hope is we get some slight enhancement from whatever tries to develop offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z sure was trying to pop something right near ORF I was just going to say the 18z gfs isnt going to help any dreamers give up the dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the good news is most every model gives us snow from the northern stream/arctic front. best hope is we get some slight enhancement from whatever tries to develop offshore. That's a fairly optimistic read of the form of precip shown on the models, though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 To me, that's good news. Next winter, it can only get better! Nowhere to go but up from here. This is the wrong thread to start talking about next winter but...........guidance is pointing towards the possiblity of a Nino. Wouldn't that be something..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the good news is most every model gives us snow from the northern stream/arctic front. best hope is we get some slight enhancement from whatever tries to develop offshore. Convective snowtado ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That's a fairly optimistic read of the form of precip shown on the models, though.. maybe so - i did not look that closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 there is zero chance we see a true coastal storm this weekend. DT and LC fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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