Yeoman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The JMA is a crap model, dude. nah, really? I'm with zits, anything outside of 60 hours could go either way, most likely down the ****ter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That is a massive (warm) precip field setting up at 228-240 on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That is a massive (warm) precip field setting up at 228-240 on the 18Z GFS. I think it's trying to give us a little love on Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What does the EURO show for Valentines Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Snow tomorrow is a no go for Prince William County Va. Either we get a major winter storm before winter is finished. If not we will all pay a price come spring. With the looks of the gulf temps we are going to have an active severe weather pattern playing out this spring. Time to roll the dice soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What does the EURO show for Valentines Day? Overpriced dinners and stupid cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Miller B at 384hrs on an off-hour run of the GFS. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Miller B at 384hrs on an off-hour run of the GFS. Lock it in! that storm will be gone by next run but the rainstorm of course is locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Snow tomorrow is a no go for Prince William County Va. Either we get a major winter storm before winter is finished. If not we will all pay a price come spring. With the looks of the gulf temps we are going to have an active severe weather pattern playing out this spring. Time to roll the dice soon! I disagree. It will snow, it just won't stick more than a dusting to half an inch, but we've been surprised before with these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Snow tomorrow is a no go for Prince William County Va. Either we get a major winter storm before winter is finished. If not we will all pay a price come spring. With the looks of the gulf temps we are going to have an active severe weather pattern playing out this spring. Time to roll the dice soon! Why do you think it is a no go? I have lived here a long time.... that precip coming from that direction with the currently predicted thickness will give us something. It will snow tomorrow at least in the western part of the county that may begin as a mix south of rt 28. We'll get between a half inch and inch on the grass and some stickage on the neighborhood roads after dark and the precip will wind down around 8pm with temps that will hover around 37 until sunset...at times it will look better than it is and you will think "over performer??" Weenie Intellicast radar will get you excited but when it is done it will underperform ...but you will have seen snow. Central Maryland will do better and you will hate reading their obs...they always do better and you will wish you could move. But we'll likely do better than Wes in southern MD. There may or may not be a WWA depending on what happens in the eastern part of the county which is usually different than the west. Schools may delay 2 hours. That is just a wag from a guy who has lived here for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What's the NAM doing late in its run? It did the same at 18z. Any chance that turns into another light snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the euro has some snow around then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Again... 84 hr NAM looks intriguing to me with that s/w in Texas... developing GOM low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Again... 84 hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know... just saying it looked good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All jokes aside, the NAM (84) is sharper with the southern vort compared to 18z/12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All jokes aside, the NAM (84) is sharper with the southern vort compared to 18z/12z It is. It just sucks its way out there... hopefully we will see if the GFS picks up on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs has some light snow around sat.. a bit of enhancement se actually w/ some wave development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not punting on the weekend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs has some light snow around sat.. a bit of enhancement se actually w/ some wave development euro's been showing it run after run....maybe it will trend wetter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 euro's been showing it run after run....maybe it will trend wetter.. I'm not familiar with this setup in the dc area, but we tend to have some luck from these pop up coastals in nc... Seems the geographic layout of the Delmarva wouldn't be as conducive to snowfall from such a system though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not punting on the weekend yet the original weekend idea is pretty much entirely done imo.. timing is off, it's got too far to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the original weekend idea is pretty much entirely done imo.. timing is off, it's got too far to come back I'm not talking abt the gom idea. I mean the secondary that tries to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm not familiar with this setup in the dc area, but we tend to have some luck from these pop up coastals in nc... Seems the geographic layout of the Delmarva wouldn't be as conducive to snowfall from such a system though The Delmarva often receives heavy snowfalls that miss us to the east, more so in some seasons than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm not talking abt the gom idea. I mean the secondary that tries to form. plenty of time but it doesnt look to have a whole lot of upswing potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Going to be a rainy late next week... no H's in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Going to be a rainy late next week... no H's in Canada gfs moving toward the euro. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs moving toward the euro. meh. I wouldn't mind some thunderstorms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 3 long range cutters on the gfs. sssswweeeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Jeez. Most recent GFS and Euro combo is discouraging. My confidence has taken a sizeable hit. It seemed logical to believe that a modest winter pattern was in our future but the logic appears inherently flawed at this point. I keep thinking back to some of lwx's and hps's discos through the years. When in a drought it's best to forecast more drought and vice versa. We've been chasing a good pattern since the beginning of Nov now. I'm an optimist by nature but based on what appears to be a less than favorable 1st half of Feb on tap, it's probably best to ease up on the expectations of having a condensed and productive winter pattern in these parts. No reason to stop rooting for well timed decent event though. Might not be fun up until or even after such an event but it would still be fun tracking and enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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