Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Haven't seen any members. I was just posting off of the mean. I guess you don't trust ensemble means unless they show no snow? Or unless they have EC in the name? im not sure what they're showing. they botched the last storm pretty good. i just don't think the pattern is very friendly to get a storm up the coast this weekend. maybe the models are showing the wrong thing... but in general i'll go with the ops unless there is tons of uncertainty and i want more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Has nobody looked at the GFS mean for Saturday? I haven't seen the members, but, hmmmmmm. Flizzard alert? Certainly possible to get some instability shsn's behind the front or perhaps a weak line of flurries/shsn's with the front. Wind's going to be whipping, so it might look pretty, but I don't think anything ends up on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, I don't know what I pulled up, but I finally found the real gfs mean for Sat. Needless to say, it isn't what i was originally looking at. Must have been an old image in the 96 hour slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Friday nights event looks better for temps. Euro wants to -sn us run after run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Friday nights event looks better for temps. Euro wants to -sn us run after run .09 qpf events dont do it for me....at this point...i want winter to end so we can get to next winter asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .09 qpf events dont do it for me....at this point...i want winter to end so we can get to next winter asap In years like this, you've gotta lower your standards as if you live in Norfolk. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .09 qpf events dont do it for me....at this point...i want winter to end so we can get to next winter asap Snow is snow... I will take what I can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im with ji.. im not going to pretend to love getting .5" events even if i need them to avoid total snow humiliation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Friday nights event looks better for temps. Euro wants to -sn us run after run I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. lets face it..its not going to snow and be cold at the same time this year beyond our standard .04 events. We will end the year most likely without a snowstorm and everyone will bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. Like the 12z GFS? Temps were near or below freezing the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im with ji.. im not going to pretend to love getting .5" events even if i need them to avoid total snow humiliation I need them to make my pattern is getting better post to not look so lol. Two wimpy events and a cold shot might save me from total forecasting humiliation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i didnt look at 0z but it's moderated the idea of the pv punching us harder.. maybe that opens the door for a midweek (rain)storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I need them to make my pattern is getting better post to not look so lol. Two wimpy events and a cold shot might save me from total forecasting humiliation. what did you forecast for DCA this year? About 10 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i didnt look at 0z but it's moderated the idea of the pv punching us harder.. maybe that opens the door for a midweek (rain)storm HM seemed to like the look of it at the start on the 00z EURO, but the PV crushed the s/w into nothingness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the PV is pretty south on the euro but we are dry through 7 days. I guess when moisture ever comes back in...the cold will have retreated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the PV is pretty south on the euro but we are dry through 7 days. I guess when moisture ever comes back in...the cold will have retreated? road trip to western maine to chase subzero highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. Like the 12z GFS? Temps were near or below freezing the weekend Euro is a little slower, so it lets it get up into the low 40s on Saturday per the wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im with ji.. im not going to pretend to love getting .5" events even if i need them to avoid total snow humiliation They're better when they don't comprise your top events of the season. 0.5" events that fall on top of snowpack after a 5" event and preceding another nice event are cool. Events at 35 degrees that accumulate for 30 minutes at the tail end of the event are kind of lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro is a little slower, so it lets it get up into the low 40s on Saturday per the wunderground maps. it's backed off on the cold.. sun/mon maybe mid-30s dc and colder nw? yesterday it was mid-20s on monday with -22c 850s for a brief minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 They're better when they don't comprise your top events of the season. 0.5" events that fall on top of snowpack after a 5" event and preceding another nice event are cool. Events at 35 degrees that accumulate for 30 minutes at the tail end of the event are kind of lame. even worse is when it starts to snow and the back edge on the radar is already in clear view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the PV is pretty south on the euro but we are dry through 7 days. I guess when moisture ever comes back in...the cold will have retreated? The block and PV are there, but the s/w is still squashed by hr 168. Then, as another s/w comes in at hr 180, the PV retreats and the airmass ahead of the s/w becomes garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 They're better when they don't comprise your top events of the season. 0.5" events that fall on top of snowpack after a 5" event and preceding another nice event are cool. Events at 35 degrees that accumulate for 30 minutes at the tail end of the event are kind of lame. fair point. i'll be glad to see snow but it won't move me much at this point in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The block and PV are there, but the s/w is still squashed by hr 168. Then, as another s/w comes in at hr 180, the PV retreats and the airmass ahead of the s/w becomes garbage. yes..its not going to snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 cutter and warm rain -- awesome pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yes..its not going to snow this winter Eh, it's a complicated pattern so I don't think what we see now is exactly what will happen. However, it's not a very good looking pattern as depicted. Probably will be somewhat related to how far south that PV drops on Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not sure why we are looking outside 3-4 days other than for fun. If we get a decent snow this winter I doubt it will well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 cutter and warm rain -- awesome pattern warm/dry warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JMA shows a very threatning coastal storm for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JMA shows a very threatning coastal storm for this weekend The JMA is a crap model, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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