Solo2 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hmmm...my point and click: Wednesday Snow...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 it actually looks pretty d@mn good, but has to come at the worst time of the day give me strength oh Lord Man up, negative Nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Man up, negative Nancy. after this <?>winter<?> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, the 12Z nam is back to the 00Z nam look but maybe even a little colder. DCA is 34 at 18Z and 33 and change at 21Z. It certainly has a snow sounding. Not sure how much to trust it but it would argue for accumulating snow to the west and north and even dcs grass getting white at the very least and maybe even accumulating an inch or two. .25 inches of qpf as snow. That is much heavier than the euro which makes it a little suspect but the vort sure looks jazzy on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, the 12Z nam is back to the 00Z nam look but maybe even a little colder. DCA is 34 at 18Z and 33 and change at 21Z. It certainly has a snow sounding. Not sure how much to trust it but it would argue for accumulating snow to the west and north and even dcs grass getting white at the very least and maybe even accumulating an inch or two. .25 inches of qpf as snow. That is much heavier than the euro which makes it a little suspect but the vort sure looks jazzy on this run. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32507-february-8-storm-obsdiscussion/page__view__findpost__p__1347456 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Am I imagining? Or did the 12z NAM at 84 at h5 look at least a lil interesting? Yes, I know its the NAM at 84 but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Am I imagining? Or did the 12z NAM at 84 at h5 look at least a lil interesting? Yes, I know its the NAM at 84 but... I thought it did, but it looked like prior runs of GFS with a front then, what happens on the front is the question it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GFS advertises a below freezing day on Saturday Probabaly not making 30. -16/-17c h85 at 21z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GFS advertises a below freezing day on Saturday Probabaly not making 30 OK But do we have any snow approaching on the weekend? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 OK But do we have any snow approaching on the weekend? Rossi through 132, thats a big negative ghost rider Sunday looks a tad warmer... but 35 would be pressing it at DCA as the high on Sunday. That is, if you were following the 2m 0c line exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 through 132, thats a big negative ghost rider Sunday looks a tad warmer... but 35 would be pressing it at DCA as the high on Sunday. That is, if you were following the 2m 0c line exactly That's downright, epic. Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is brewing up something big for mid next week based on 126-144hrs. It's phasing the northern and southern stream vorts at 144 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's downright, epic. Thanks for the update. Yup it is. Could be one of the few days with a high at or below freezing this weekend for the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is brewing up something big for mid next week based on 126-144hrs. It's phasing the northern and southern stream vorts at 144 it looks like. Problem is that it's a garbage airmass out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 7 or so after the weekend is our shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Problem is that it's a garbage airmass out ahead of it. .. At more failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Problem is that it's a garbage airmass out ahead of it. Agreed. Confluence to the north helps, but no reinforcing high for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Having a surface high off NC and lower pressure to the north is not very favorable for keeping any low level cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .. At more failure It drives a big batch of warmer air in on this run. Sort of what the ensembles do in a way, albeit quicker. It takes the s/w from the southwest and dampens it out. There are a lot of moving parts, so models will probably be all over the place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Having a surface high off NC and lower pressure to the north is not very favorable for keeping any low level cold air in place. In six hours the storm will be gone so I'm not worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The GFS kills what was starting at 144 and just turns it into a weak wave traveling east but then still looks to be making something big through 168. Truncation will probably kill that horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What a colossal piece of sh*t on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What a colossal piece of sh*t on the GFS Yep, we lose the pacific and are losing the negative Ao but probably still have a mildy negative nao not that it will do us much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 228/240 is hilarious... what a trainwreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 228/240 is hilarious... what a trainwreck But it gives us back the Pacific with a positive pna...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 228/240 is hilarious... what a trainwreck In a different context, this QPF map would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's pretty obvious that model forecasts beyond about 4 days right now is pretty much like throwing darts. Blindfolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Has nobody looked at the GFS mean for Saturday? I haven't seen the members, but, hmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 is it p004 time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 is it p004 time? Haven't seen any members. I was just posting off of the mean. I guess you don't trust ensemble means unless they show no snow? Or unless they have EC in the name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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