Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 So do we get missed down here on the Euro? the wednesday event is warm, but I didnt think it was a terrible run...it just isn't robust in the way we wanted....we still need to watch it, but it may end up being a well NW burbs event.....Weekend is a near miss....we get some -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 -30c to -34c h85 temps in Quebec with snow organizing over the Missouri Valley at 150h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The wave gets obliterated under the crushing PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Have no idea why I'm still awake.....full moon maybe? Anyway, time for me to pay closer attention to the weekend. PV hasn't squashed anything all year. It's been modeled a few times but ends up being more relaxed in real time. Hmmmm... Not sure what to think yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The wave gets obliterated under the crushing PV. Interesting that is has that same wave as the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Interesting that is has that same wave as the GFS though. Yes. I suppose a slower ejection of the s/w and/or a faster retreat of the Arctic heights/PV would bring quite the different solution. Regardless of what the outcomes are, it is refreshing to see some potential, at the very least, within the next 10 days. This isn't the snowiest or coldest pattern by any means but it is definitely a major improvement from before (which goes without saying I guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That beautiful high in Quebec from the 0z run that allowed for that to be a snow solution on Valentine's day was replaced with an ugly L on the 6z run and a solution that is rainy down our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That beautiful high in Quebec from the 0z run that allowed for that to be a snow solution on Valentine's day was replaced with an ugly L on the 6z run and a solution that is rainy down our way. The difference is that the 00Z has a 50/50 low whereas the 06Z doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 06Z GFS has a parade of storms like yesterdays run but they are wet unstead of white. The PV placement is a good bit further north as well on this run versus yesterdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The vort track on the 6z is better IMO for the Wed event. This remaining issue is the lack of precip. A bit drier than the 0z GFS and more like the euro. I'm not going to freak out that it loses the Vday one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 EC ensembles kind of look like the op regarding the HA deal everyone was talking about. Not nearly as classic looking as the GFS op was at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 BUFKIT's for BWI - Tomorrow's "threat" 00z GFS (QPF total .075) 120208/1800Z 42 VRB02KT 34.9F RASN 120208/2100Z 45 VRB01KT 34.5F RASN 120209/0000Z 48 VRB02KT 33.3F RASN First hour of the Vday threat (QPF for this hour 0.016) 120214/1200Z 180 08008KT 21.9F SNOW 06z GFS (QPF total .071) 120208/1800Z 36 VRB01KT 36.1F RASN 120208/2100Z 39 VRB01KT 36.9F RASN 120209/0000Z 42 VRB02KT 34.9F RASN 00z NAM (QPF total .258) 120208/1800Z 42 03003KT 33.3F RASN 120208/1900Z 43 03003KT 33.6F RASN 120208/2000Z 44 04003KT 33.4F SNOW 120208/2100Z 45 04004KT 33.1F RASN 120208/2200Z 46 04003KT 33.1F SNOW 120208/2300Z 47 05003KT 32.7F RASN 120209/0000Z 48 02003KT 32.7F RASN 120209/0100Z 49 33004KT 32.7F RASN 120209/0200Z 50 32004KT 32.9F RASN 06z NAM (QPF total .068) 120208/2100Z 39 VRB02KT 35.6F RASN 120208/2200Z 40 VRB02KT 35.1F RASN 120208/2300Z 41 VRB01KT 34.2F RASN 120209/0000Z 42 VRB02KT 34.0F RASN 120209/0100Z 43 VRB02KT 33.8F RASN 120209/0200Z 44 VRB02KT 33.8F RASN 120209/0300Z 45 31003KT 34.0F RASN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I guess the 0z NAM was a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 My Point and Click for my house Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 36. Northeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 7pm. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80% Point and Click for work Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 38. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 7pm. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 LWX discussion as of 4am .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON WED. WHILE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...UPPER DIVG IN LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF ULVL JET-STREAK AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR LGT PRECIP ON WED. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND QPF. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. PRECIP WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE MRNG BEFORE REACHING THE CITIES BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...MODELS DISCREPANCIES RESIDE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. PTYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER A COLDER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS HAVE INDICATED. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/... EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO COOL AS PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN BOUNDARY-LAYER/SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY...MOST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH WET-BULB TEMP PROFILES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THRU MOST OF THIS EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN MD AND EXTREME NWRN VA. PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. LGT QPF AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE CITIES/CENTRAL VA/SRN MD...PTYPE IS LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH RA OR SN. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL REFINE RA-SN LINE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 DCA will still have issues but those N&W should like LWX now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 DCA will still have issues but those N&W should like LWX now I think LWX is once again overdone for up here..........hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The vort track on the 6z is better IMO for the Wed event. This remaining issue is the lack of precip. A bit drier than the 0z GFS and more like the euro. I'm not going to freak out that it loses the Vday one. To be clear, I was not/am not freaking out either. Was just posting what it showed. I would have been disappointed if hadn't shown a solution the complete opposite of the prior run...I mean, a person has to have some certainties to hang onto in life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Snowfall probability from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Snowfall probability from HPC Looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 To be clear, I was not/am not freaking out either. Was just posting what it showed. I would have been disappointed if hadn't shown a solution the complete opposite of the prior run...I mean, a person has to have some certainties to hang onto in life... Wasn't calling you out at all. I think the one consistency this winter is the lack of consistency. Seeing a model lock into a solution for days on end would be scary right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Again this may not mean much, but thought this was interesting. The EC squashed any threat, but does sort of look like the 00z GFS op WRT Greenland area. Models will probably go back and forth and it may very well be nothing, but interesting anyways. Not suggesting anything more, than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Unfortunately by then the Pacific falls apart and shifts towards the positive west Pacific Oscillation look which is a warmer than normal but not torchlike across most of the eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Unfortunately by then the Pacific falls apart and shifts towards the positive west Pacific Oscillation look which is a warmer than normal but not torchlike across most of the eastern half of the country. After that date,like from the 15th or so on, it does warm up in the East, on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wasn't calling you out at all. I think the one consistency this winter is the lack of consistency. Seeing a model lock into a solution for days on end would be scary right now For damn sure on the bolded. Its pretty damn amusing to me at this point. Course, I would be even more amused if those wild swings eventually settled on a solution that gave me more than a "T" of frickin' snow, but that's crazy thinking in this winter of my discontent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Still a big discrepancy after the warm up, with the EC looking +EPO/-PNA ish, but the GEFS and especially Canadian not completely buying that. The NAO is not very negative which isn't the greatest for you guys, but in terms of sensible wx, these differences are pretty sizeable in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Again this may not mean much, but thought this was interesting. The EC squashed any threat, but does sort of look like the 00z GFS op WRT Greenland area. Models will probably go back and forth and it may very well be nothing, but interesting anyways. Not suggesting anything more, than that. So you're forecasting a KU storm with DC getting foot +. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 So you're forecasting a KU storm with DC getting foot +. Cool Well you'll be in a favorable area for mid level frontogenesis, probably 15". It's probably not going to be much of anything, but looked interesting as some key features were displayed. Unfortunately, it's not a classic look in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nam turning Weds light event into Thurs nite miller b(-)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nam turning Weds light event into Thurs nite miller b(-)? it actually looks pretty d@mn good, but has to come at the worst time of the day give me strength oh Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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