Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks nice but could as well be 100 days away. The Euro will probably show 70 and sunny. which is why I said weenie alert there is zero skill at that range with a specific storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The storm the GFS shows is a good example of what can happen if the PV diving south does a big turn-about on the pattern...it flips the NAO negative while a cold air mass is already in place...that is a classic Archambault event...but of course, the models have been handling the PV so pathetically that you might as well throw darts to figure out what will happen with it. HM has definitely been correct at how pathetically inconsistent the model guidance has been during this transition. Its probably the worst we have seen in the past 3 or 4 winters that I can remember. HM mentioned that too....and yes the models haven't been of much use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 which is why I said weenie alert there is zero skill at that range with a specific storm the euro and gfs are quite different early week into mid week of course. who knows. i think this is a "smarter" solution to hope for than a gulf of mex miller a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the euro and gfs are quite different early week into mid week of course. who knows. i think this is a "smarter" solution to hope for than a gulf of mex miller a. Its definitely a more reasonable solution for DC than hoping the gulf system interacts with the arctic front just right a couple days prior...that threat is probably more of a NE threat anyway since it might not interact the gulf at all and be northern stream dominated...and will probably just miss everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the euro and gfs are quite different early week into mid week of course. who knows. i think this is a "smarter" solution to hope for than a gulf of mex miller a. We arent going to get any big complex slowly traverse across the country and plow into a deep stable trough....So I think the model watchhing beyond day 4 is more just for fun....I think the 2006 storm the JMA was the 1st to pick it up and it was day 6 or so...I think the indications of a big event and some consensus was at day 4-5 and that was considered well forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Its definitely a more reasonable solution for DC than hoping the gulf system interacts with the arctic front just right a couple days prior...that threat is probably more of a NE threat anyway since it might not interact the gulf at all and be northern stream dominated...and will probably just miss everyone. First time I've been at all interested in anything at range even if it's a fantasy. I've pretty much written off the weekend threat tho.. Perhaps too soon. It fits with what we've seen work better tho of course it's supercharged. I think last yr burned too much with more pure coastals to have any faith in that for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We arent going to get any big complex slowly traverse across the country and plow into a deep stable trough....So I think the model watchhing beyond day 4 is more just for fun....I think the 2006 storm the JMA was the 1st to pick it up and it was day 6 or so...I think the indications of a big event and some consensus was at day 4-5 and that was considered well forecast.... Well I don't expect it that's for sure heh. But I'd rather take my chances on that type look even with half the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM is actually more optomistic if you check the MR thread in WFD. However I am not uncanceling winter until I have 10+ on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We arent going to get any big complex slowly traverse across the country and plow into a deep stable trough....So I think the model watchhing beyond day 4 is more just for fun....I think the 2006 storm the JMA was the 1st to pick it up and it was day 6 or so...I think the indications of a big event and some consensus was at day 4-5 and that was considered well forecast.... The Euro choked really bad on that storm...one of the few KU's that the Euro choked on almost the entire way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The Euro choked really bad on that storm...one of the few KU's that the Euro choked on almost the entire way. why?....wasn't it a pretty straightforward event?...did the euro have it OTS?...I don't remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 why?....wasn't it a pretty straightforward event?...did the euro have it OTS?...I don't remember Pretty much..it had a scraper event...like advisory for the coast for almost every run except one I think. It way too far SE. One of the only KUs I remember where it really bit the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Pretty much..it had a scraper event...like advisory for the coast for almost every run except one I think. It way too far SE. One of the only KUs I remember where it really bit the big one. I remember that. It never really caught on. The Gfs and Jma had the same solution locked from Wednesday till storm started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I remember that. It never really caught on. The Gfs and Jma had the same solution locked from Wednesday till storm started The JMA is probably going to have to be inducted into the HOF of models just because of how often it shows huge KU events...so every time it verifies, it looks good but everyone forgets all the times it showed it and it didn't happen. Its the equivalent of the pitcher in baseball who pitched in like 20 World Series game 7s and won 6 of them so he is amazing, but everyone forgets the time he lost the other 14. Obviously there is no such pitcher, but that is what the JMA would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The JMA is probably going to have to be inducted into the HOF of models just because of how often it shows huge KU events...so every time it verifies, it looks good but everyone forgets all the times it showed it and it didn't happen. Its the equivalent of the pitcher in baseball who pitched in like 20 World Series game 7s and won 6 of them so he is amazing, but everyone forgets the time he lost the other 14. Obviously there is no such pitcher, but that is what the JMA would be. Lol since it does show alot of big storms all the time it's almost always first to pick them up. Also if JMA does not have a big event...it's a good sign there won't be one period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 euro looks decent for Wednesday,,,,just way warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro starts too late and is warm at surface . Plus dry for event. Euro says no again basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 euro looks decent for Wednesday,,,,just way warm It's a terrible run...For the wed event. Poor timing and dry and warm at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro starts too late and is warm at surface . Plus dry for event. Euro says no again basically yeah...that's true...I just liked that it wasn't too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah...that's true...I just liked that it wasn't too far north We need the event to start 6 hours earlier plus we need it to be 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's a terrible run...For the wed event. Poor timing and dry and warm at surface you sure about timing...seems around 10-11am?....anyway.....it is crazy warm....you are right....Can we ignore that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 you sure about timing...seems around 10-11am?....anyway.....it is crazy warm....you are right....Can we ignore that? Looks like it starts at around 1-2pm. I highly doubt it would be mid 40s at 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ut oh at 102h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like it starts at around 1-2pm. I highly doubt it would be mid 40s at 10am seems earlier to me but my maps aren't good for this type of event...very coarse....there is a dry slot over us so maybe 1-2 according to this run..it will start earlier than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ut oh at 102h it's been getting closer than any other models...even closer this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 it's been getting closer than any other models...even closer this run Yeah this run could nail New England. We'll see if it can get its act together quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This run was a close one for New England to get bombed. I hope this "torch fail" ends up lasting a little longer than the January "torch fail" -WPO period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 So do we get missed down here on the Euro for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Oh and the euro might go all Heather A / GFS on us too this run ...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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