Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro is a little slower, so it lets it get up into the low 40s on Saturday per the wunderground maps. it's backed off on the cold.. sun/mon maybe mid-30s dc and colder nw? yesterday it was mid-20s on monday with -22c 850s for a brief minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 They're better when they don't comprise your top events of the season. 0.5" events that fall on top of snowpack after a 5" event and preceding another nice event are cool. Events at 35 degrees that accumulate for 30 minutes at the tail end of the event are kind of lame. even worse is when it starts to snow and the back edge on the radar is already in clear view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the PV is pretty south on the euro but we are dry through 7 days. I guess when moisture ever comes back in...the cold will have retreated? The block and PV are there, but the s/w is still squashed by hr 168. Then, as another s/w comes in at hr 180, the PV retreats and the airmass ahead of the s/w becomes garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 They're better when they don't comprise your top events of the season. 0.5" events that fall on top of snowpack after a 5" event and preceding another nice event are cool. Events at 35 degrees that accumulate for 30 minutes at the tail end of the event are kind of lame. fair point. i'll be glad to see snow but it won't move me much at this point in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The block and PV are there, but the s/w is still squashed by hr 168. Then, as another s/w comes in at hr 180, the PV retreats and the airmass ahead of the s/w becomes garbage. yes..its not going to snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 cutter and warm rain -- awesome pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yes..its not going to snow this winter Eh, it's a complicated pattern so I don't think what we see now is exactly what will happen. However, it's not a very good looking pattern as depicted. Probably will be somewhat related to how far south that PV drops on Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 cutter and warm rain -- awesome pattern warm/dry warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JMA shows a very threatning coastal storm for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JMA shows a very threatning coastal storm for this weekend The JMA is a crap model, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The JMA is a crap model, dude. nah, really? I'm with zits, anything outside of 60 hours could go either way, most likely down the ****ter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That is a massive (warm) precip field setting up at 228-240 on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That is a massive (warm) precip field setting up at 228-240 on the 18Z GFS. I think it's trying to give us a little love on Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What does the EURO show for Valentines Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Snow tomorrow is a no go for Prince William County Va. Either we get a major winter storm before winter is finished. If not we will all pay a price come spring. With the looks of the gulf temps we are going to have an active severe weather pattern playing out this spring. Time to roll the dice soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What does the EURO show for Valentines Day? Overpriced dinners and stupid cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Miller B at 384hrs on an off-hour run of the GFS. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Miller B at 384hrs on an off-hour run of the GFS. Lock it in! that storm will be gone by next run but the rainstorm of course is locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Snow tomorrow is a no go for Prince William County Va. Either we get a major winter storm before winter is finished. If not we will all pay a price come spring. With the looks of the gulf temps we are going to have an active severe weather pattern playing out this spring. Time to roll the dice soon! I disagree. It will snow, it just won't stick more than a dusting to half an inch, but we've been surprised before with these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Snow tomorrow is a no go for Prince William County Va. Either we get a major winter storm before winter is finished. If not we will all pay a price come spring. With the looks of the gulf temps we are going to have an active severe weather pattern playing out this spring. Time to roll the dice soon! Why do you think it is a no go? I have lived here a long time.... that precip coming from that direction with the currently predicted thickness will give us something. It will snow tomorrow at least in the western part of the county that may begin as a mix south of rt 28. We'll get between a half inch and inch on the grass and some stickage on the neighborhood roads after dark and the precip will wind down around 8pm with temps that will hover around 37 until sunset...at times it will look better than it is and you will think "over performer??" Weenie Intellicast radar will get you excited but when it is done it will underperform ...but you will have seen snow. Central Maryland will do better and you will hate reading their obs...they always do better and you will wish you could move. But we'll likely do better than Wes in southern MD. There may or may not be a WWA depending on what happens in the eastern part of the county which is usually different than the west. Schools may delay 2 hours. That is just a wag from a guy who has lived here for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What's the NAM doing late in its run? It did the same at 18z. Any chance that turns into another light snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the euro has some snow around then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Again... 84 hr NAM looks intriguing to me with that s/w in Texas... developing GOM low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Again... 84 hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know... just saying it looked good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All jokes aside, the NAM (84) is sharper with the southern vort compared to 18z/12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All jokes aside, the NAM (84) is sharper with the southern vort compared to 18z/12z It is. It just sucks its way out there... hopefully we will see if the GFS picks up on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs has some light snow around sat.. a bit of enhancement se actually w/ some wave development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not punting on the weekend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 euro's been showing it run after run....maybe it will trend wetter.. I'm not familiar with this setup in the dc area, but we tend to have some luck from these pop up coastals in nc... Seems the geographic layout of the Delmarva wouldn't be as conducive to snowfall from such a system though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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