usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Having a surface high off NC and lower pressure to the north is not very favorable for keeping any low level cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .. At more failure It drives a big batch of warmer air in on this run. Sort of what the ensembles do in a way, albeit quicker. It takes the s/w from the southwest and dampens it out. There are a lot of moving parts, so models will probably be all over the place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Having a surface high off NC and lower pressure to the north is not very favorable for keeping any low level cold air in place. In six hours the storm will be gone so I'm not worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The GFS kills what was starting at 144 and just turns it into a weak wave traveling east but then still looks to be making something big through 168. Truncation will probably kill that horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What a colossal piece of sh*t on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What a colossal piece of sh*t on the GFS Yep, we lose the pacific and are losing the negative Ao but probably still have a mildy negative nao not that it will do us much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 228/240 is hilarious... what a trainwreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 228/240 is hilarious... what a trainwreck But it gives us back the Pacific with a positive pna...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 228/240 is hilarious... what a trainwreck In a different context, this QPF map would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's pretty obvious that model forecasts beyond about 4 days right now is pretty much like throwing darts. Blindfolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Has nobody looked at the GFS mean for Saturday? I haven't seen the members, but, hmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 is it p004 time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 is it p004 time? Haven't seen any members. I was just posting off of the mean. I guess you don't trust ensemble means unless they show no snow? Or unless they have EC in the name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Haven't seen any members. I was just posting off of the mean. I guess you don't trust ensemble means unless they show no snow? Or unless they have EC in the name? im not sure what they're showing. they botched the last storm pretty good. i just don't think the pattern is very friendly to get a storm up the coast this weekend. maybe the models are showing the wrong thing... but in general i'll go with the ops unless there is tons of uncertainty and i want more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Has nobody looked at the GFS mean for Saturday? I haven't seen the members, but, hmmmmmm. Flizzard alert? Certainly possible to get some instability shsn's behind the front or perhaps a weak line of flurries/shsn's with the front. Wind's going to be whipping, so it might look pretty, but I don't think anything ends up on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, I don't know what I pulled up, but I finally found the real gfs mean for Sat. Needless to say, it isn't what i was originally looking at. Must have been an old image in the 96 hour slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Friday nights event looks better for temps. Euro wants to -sn us run after run .09 qpf events dont do it for me....at this point...i want winter to end so we can get to next winter asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .09 qpf events dont do it for me....at this point...i want winter to end so we can get to next winter asap In years like this, you've gotta lower your standards as if you live in Norfolk. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .09 qpf events dont do it for me....at this point...i want winter to end so we can get to next winter asap Snow is snow... I will take what I can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im with ji.. im not going to pretend to love getting .5" events even if i need them to avoid total snow humiliation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Friday nights event looks better for temps. Euro wants to -sn us run after run I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. lets face it..its not going to snow and be cold at the same time this year beyond our standard .04 events. We will end the year most likely without a snowstorm and everyone will bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. Like the 12z GFS? Temps were near or below freezing the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im with ji.. im not going to pretend to love getting .5" events even if i need them to avoid total snow humiliation I need them to make my pattern is getting better post to not look so lol. Two wimpy events and a cold shot might save me from total forecasting humiliation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i didnt look at 0z but it's moderated the idea of the pv punching us harder.. maybe that opens the door for a midweek (rain)storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I need them to make my pattern is getting better post to not look so lol. Two wimpy events and a cold shot might save me from total forecasting humiliation. what did you forecast for DCA this year? About 10 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i didnt look at 0z but it's moderated the idea of the pv punching us harder.. maybe that opens the door for a midweek (rain)storm HM seemed to like the look of it at the start on the 00z EURO, but the PV crushed the s/w into nothingness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the PV is pretty south on the euro but we are dry through 7 days. I guess when moisture ever comes back in...the cold will have retreated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the PV is pretty south on the euro but we are dry through 7 days. I guess when moisture ever comes back in...the cold will have retreated? road trip to western maine to chase subzero highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I saw that. it's also pretty doggone cold Saturday and Sunday. Like the 12z GFS? Temps were near or below freezing the weekend Euro is a little slower, so it lets it get up into the low 40s on Saturday per the wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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