usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You'll have a better chance in this one than the last one I think. I remember telling zwyts in the last one that he would probably switch over between 06z and 12z but the event never produced steady precip past early evening, so it wasn't able to happen. In this one (at least as it looks right now), the WBZ heights are much much lower so any steady precip should get it over to snow very quickly in the IAD region, and it shouldn't take that much longer to get DCA in the snow if it can come down steady and we don't have a south wind...there's some slight differences in models in what the wind will be doing near the sfc...NAM is best case scenario...Euro and GFS try and keep it more south early on albeit very light. It could mean more of a 35F snow/rain mix or non-accumulating snow for a bit if that happens, or even RA- if it can't come down steady enough. But even the Euro looked like it would probably end as some snow in the city. If the event trends weaker with precip and omega, then of course all bets are off and it will be worse in the BL too. I think that is an important point. I could see the nam temp profiles changing if the vort ends up being weaker on one of the subsequent runs. IThat's the big cautionary note for getting too excited too early for dc propper. As you say, the soundings look good as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JB with another weenie map im not sure what it means. if the 3 area is 3 max it might not be a bad idea for now. tho that means the other is like t-1. if it's 1-3 and 3-6 i dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah that was the 9th. i don't recally recall specifics other than we were on the north end and it snowed nicely without sticking most of the time. I got around 1.5 out fo that one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im not sure what it means. if the 3 area is 3 max it might not be a bad idea for now. tho that means the other is like t-1. if it's 1-3 and 3-6 i dunno. Yeah, I think that's the point. That way if either scenario verifies he can still say he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im not sure what it means. if the 3 area is 3 max it might not be a bad idea for now. tho that means the other is like t-1. if it's 1-3 and 3-6 i dunno. It seems to be a 3" snowfall zone? I don't know either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This thread is rocking. Enjoy it until the GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I got around 1.5 out fo that one I think. there was like 1 or maybe more good bands just south of the city. we got some accum here as the sun set but during the day it just melted. i got like .5"... tho it was an enjoyable snow to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This thread is rocking. Enjoy it until the GFS runs. Over 1-3" AT MOST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 there was like 1 or maybe more good bands just south of the city. we got some accum here as the sun set but during the day it just melted. i got like .5"... tho it was an enjoyable snow to watch. There were, I got into one early and then another later. It was fun to watch. I could see this doing something similar though pinning down where such banding would set up can't be done at this time range with such a weak system. If the nam qpf wasn't so similar to the euro, I'd probably cut it in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Over 1-3" AT MOST At least we don't have to deal with weatherwiz and CT Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This thread is rocking. Enjoy it until the GFS runs. It has been showing flurries... hope it picks up some more QPF this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im not sure what it means. if the 3 area is 3 max it might not be a bad idea for now. tho that means the other is like t-1. if it's 1-3 and 3-6 i dunno. Yes it is exactly like you thought it is max 3" in that area and max 1" in the other area. He mentioned earlier that a localized place could get up to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I think that is an important point. I could see the nam temp profiles changing if the vort ends up being weaker on one of the subsequent runs. IThat's the big cautionary note for getting too excited too early for dc propper. As you say, the soundings look good as forecast. Yeah a steep low level sounding can get wasted with bad omega and weaker overall dynamics...but then again with weaker omega, it probably means you are just getting screwed out of a coating rather than an inch or two if the storm trends like that. Hopefully the stronger solutions verify because it would probably be pretty good for most of the area if that happened...esp the suburbs as you and many have already mentioned. But I'd be surprised if the city didn't get accumulation if the more robust solutions verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone want to venture a start time for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Over 1-3" AT MOST Go back to Boston. Oh wait, no snow there either. Poor baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone want to venture a start time for this? Wed afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah a steep low level sounding can get wasted with bad omega and weaker overall dynamics...but then again with weaker omega, it probably means you are just getting screwed out of a coating rather than an inch or two if the storm trends like that. Hopefully the stronger solutions verify because it would probably be pretty good for most of the area if that happened...esp the suburbs as you and many have already mentioned. But I'd be surprised if the city didn't get accumulation if the more robust solutions verified. Inside dc it's going to need a period of moderate snow which certaily could happen with the nam type vort. It will be interesting to see whether the euro holds serve and see what the gfs does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 At least we don't have to deal with weatherwiz and CT Blizz ct blizz is at least entertaining... wiz has just been plain annoying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 beware the inevitable drift north of the vort as the event nears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 beware the inevitable drift north of the vort as the event nears That's certainly another concern and a valid one. It's a good reason to hold off on putting out accumulatons this early. As Jason noted in an e-mail, take the vort north and we could have a non event. Edge it south and we could be in the sweet spot. We're still in a thread the needle type situation like we often are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's certainly another concern and a valid one. It's a good reason to hold off on putting out accumulatons this early. As Jason noted in an e-mail, take the vort north and we could have a non event. Edge it south and we could be in the sweet spot. We're still in a thread the needle type situation like we often are. i liked your email saying 12+ seems a good bet with thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 beware the inevitable drift north of the vort as the event nears I bet it will do something really stupid like go south and strengthen which will somehow end up making the surface temps too warm for snow so we get moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i liked your email saying 12+ seems a good bet with thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i liked your email saying 12+ seems a good bet with thundersnow. you were supposed to wait until late Friday P.M. before making that one public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I bet it will do something really stupid like go south and strengthen which will somehow end up making the surface temps too warm for snow so we get moderate rain. only because I've lived here >50 years can I logically understand that possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i liked your email saying 12+ seems a good bet with thundersnow. That's it, he does not know what the hell he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i liked your email saying 12+ seems a good bet with thundersnow. In your and my dreams. I'm hopeful but leery as I don't trust the nam that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 well GFS is slower compared to the 18z GFS through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS starts at 10-11 am...I could see it start earlier too...which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 In your and my dreams. I'm hopeful but leery as I don't trust the nam that much. vort looked healthy at 33 grs on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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