MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah leesburg fdk etc look good. it is colder. Looks like DC proper MAY be 33 during the event, but the freezing line is very close.. If it trends any colder were good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 vort track not my fav per se imby but heavier/more precip would be good maybe we can get a cartopper The NAM would be more than that, even here in the city....but......it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like DC proper MAY be 33 during the event, but the freezing line is very close.. If it trends any colder were good it could go colder i suppose.. that's been something we've seen from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 00z NAM is def a wet snow sounding for even DCA...you can see how ridiculously shallow the above freezing layer is on this sounding during the beginning of the precip It is not the greatest timing, but it would prob go to a 32-33F snow pretty fast if it came down steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The NAM would be more than that, even here in the city....but......it's the NAM exactly.. tho euro nam lining up is usually good.. it finally happened with like 18 hours to go this weekend (maybe minus speed of the sys). the vort max is very close tho, not much breathing room -- if it shifts too much we end up with not much time in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 exactly.. tho euro nam lining up is usually good.. it finally happened with like 18 hours to go this weekend (maybe minus speed of the sys). the vort max is very close tho, not much breathing room -- if it shifts too much we end up with not much time in precip. I really don't care what the NAM shows...it isnt a very good model at that range with details....I'll defer to GFS/EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For you snow growth people...that sounding is something you like to see for good dendrites too...an isothermal layer around -12C to -14C between 700mb and 600mb...you can get some pretty good rates with that type of snow growth...esp in areas that can get under 32F. But obviously you wait until you get closer to try and figure that stuff out...but its the type of thing you'd be looking for if you wanted to maximize minimal qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 exactly.. tho euro nam lining up is usually good.. it finally happened with like 18 hours to go this weekend (maybe minus speed of the sys). the vort max is very close tho, not much breathing room -- if it shifts too much we end up with not much time in precip. Maybe the optimism pays off this time? Man I hope so. Winters like this make you realize how much you love snow. I'm not surprised to read that the trend is colder. Seems like it always is. I just hope the precip over performs for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I really don't care what the NAM shows...it isnt a very good model at that range with details....I'll defer to GFS/EURO.... It's 36 to 48 hours. I would have thought you'd be a tad more confident in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's 36 to 48 hours. I would have thought you'd be a tad more confident in it. remember what it showed like 24 hours out the other day? to be fair this is "simpler" equation. i think it's good it looks like the euro.. that should be a confidence booster of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's 36 to 48 hours. I would have thought you'd be a tad more confident in it. And has a bias of being a bit too cold on our "events"... if the GFS shows it then I might climb on board... right now this is a interesting run, that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For KOKV, the precip total is 0.21, and no level goes above freezing the entire event. Max ground temp is 30.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 remember what it showed like 24 hours out the other day? to be fair this is "simpler" equation. i think it's good it looks like the euro.. that should be a confidence booster of some sort. did the EURO even show -SN in DC at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 And has a bias of being a bit too cold on our "events"... if the GFS shows it then I might climb on board... right now this is a interesting run, that's it Yoda, I can't really remember what it showed for me as far as temps go. During the snow on Sat/Sun we stayed right at freezing until about 9 o'clock Sunday morning. But, like I said, I can't really remember what it showed wrt temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 remember what it showed like 24 hours out the other day? to be fair this is "simpler" equation. i think it's good it looks like the euro.. that should be a confidence booster of some sort. The NAM does a better job at bringing the sfc flow around to the NE quicker than the Euro...so it looks better in the BL than the Euro and is a snowier solution...but the qpf and upper levels aren't too different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 did the EURO even show -SN in DC at all? The wunder maps did. Not much, but some, iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 did the EURO even show -SN in DC at all? i only looked at the maps but it looked like it was mainly a wv/w md type event, even the favored n and w locations looked mostly rain. but im not going to bank on the euro getting the micro level details right as much as the overall system and environment its in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 remember what it showed like 24 hours out the other day? to be fair this is "simpler" equation. i think it's good it looks like the euro.. that should be a confidence booster of some sort. Well, I hope it works out this time. I just want the precip to be good. If it ends up too warm, so be it. I just don't want to be sitting here saying if only we had the precip. I like the fact that the Euro was wetter, and now the NAM is trending that way. It's so foolish to invest this much hope in something as silly as weather. It's been a long winter, and I just hope we don't get let down again. I really would like to see this be a nice event for all of us. It would take a little of the sting out of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The NAM does a better job at bringing the sfc flow around to the NE quicker than the Euro...so it looks better in the BL than the Euro and is a snowier solution...but the qpf and upper levels aren't too different. yesterday i didnt like it much except for the 500 features as they moved through.. but given what events we have managed to get something from and the airmass involved i like our (at least the global our) chances better or much better. however, if i just get a cold rain i may disappear till spring is solidly in session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yesterday i didnt like it much except for the 500 features as they moved through.. but given what events we have managed to get something from and the airmass involved i like our (at least the global our) chances better or much better. however, if i just get a cold rain i may disappear till spring is solidly in session. Could this system possibly equate to the one we had a month ago I think where we had 1-2" of wet snow? Airmass and temperature wise that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JB snow map: http://t.co/5oSkyyvJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah leesburg fdk etc look good. it is colder. The run has continued the trend of being colder. I think FDK and Leesburg look good for getting accumulations...maybe an inch or two. I wouldn't even rule out grass accumulations around DC though I'd like to see the euro be as wet as the NAM. If it is I wouldn't worry much about its temps which probably will be warmer given its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yesterday i didnt like it much except for the 500 features as they moved through.. but given what events we have managed to get something from and the airmass involved i like our (at least the global our) chances better or much better. however, if i just get a cold rain i may disappear till spring is solidly in session. You'll have a better chance in this one than the last one I think. I remember telling zwyts in the last one that he would probably switch over between 06z and 12z but the event never produced steady precip past early evening, so it wasn't able to happen. In this one (at least as it looks right now), the WBZ heights are much much lower so any steady precip should get it over to snow very quickly in the IAD region, and it shouldn't take that much longer to get DCA in the snow if it can come down steady and we don't have a south wind...there's some slight differences in models in what the wind will be doing near the sfc...NAM is best case scenario...Euro and GFS try and keep it more south early on albeit very light. It could mean more of a 35F snow/rain mix or non-accumulating snow for a bit if that happens, or even RA- if it can't come down steady enough. But even the Euro looked like it would probably end as some snow in the city. If the event trends weaker with precip and omega, then of course all bets are off and it will be worse in the BL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JB with another weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Could this system possibly equate to the one we had a month ago I think where we had 1-2" of wet snow? Airmass and temperature wise that is... im not sure which event.. the 9th was more an overruning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JB with another weenie map He is probably overdone on the map, but he was the first met i saw to call for an accumulating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 im not sure which event.. the 9th was more an overruning. The one where DC was basically the dividing line... MD get basically nothing... some parts of PW got 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The one where DC was basically the dividing line... MD get basically nothing... some parts of PW got 2" yes...1/9....this airmass is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 He is probably overdone on the map, but he was the first met i saw to call for an accumulating storm. He has no credibility anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The one where DC was basically the dividing line... MD get basically nothing... some parts of PW got 2" yeah that was the 9th. i don't recally recall specifics other than we were on the north end and it snowed nicely without sticking most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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