North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The vort track on the 6z is better IMO for the Wed event. This remaining issue is the lack of precip. A bit drier than the 0z GFS and more like the euro. I'm not going to freak out that it loses the Vday one. To be clear, I was not/am not freaking out either. Was just posting what it showed. I would have been disappointed if hadn't shown a solution the complete opposite of the prior run...I mean, a person has to have some certainties to hang onto in life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Snowfall probability from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Snowfall probability from HPC Looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 To be clear, I was not/am not freaking out either. Was just posting what it showed. I would have been disappointed if hadn't shown a solution the complete opposite of the prior run...I mean, a person has to have some certainties to hang onto in life... Wasn't calling you out at all. I think the one consistency this winter is the lack of consistency. Seeing a model lock into a solution for days on end would be scary right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Again this may not mean much, but thought this was interesting. The EC squashed any threat, but does sort of look like the 00z GFS op WRT Greenland area. Models will probably go back and forth and it may very well be nothing, but interesting anyways. Not suggesting anything more, than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Unfortunately by then the Pacific falls apart and shifts towards the positive west Pacific Oscillation look which is a warmer than normal but not torchlike across most of the eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Unfortunately by then the Pacific falls apart and shifts towards the positive west Pacific Oscillation look which is a warmer than normal but not torchlike across most of the eastern half of the country. After that date,like from the 15th or so on, it does warm up in the East, on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wasn't calling you out at all. I think the one consistency this winter is the lack of consistency. Seeing a model lock into a solution for days on end would be scary right now For damn sure on the bolded. Its pretty damn amusing to me at this point. Course, I would be even more amused if those wild swings eventually settled on a solution that gave me more than a "T" of frickin' snow, but that's crazy thinking in this winter of my discontent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Still a big discrepancy after the warm up, with the EC looking +EPO/-PNA ish, but the GEFS and especially Canadian not completely buying that. The NAO is not very negative which isn't the greatest for you guys, but in terms of sensible wx, these differences are pretty sizeable in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Again this may not mean much, but thought this was interesting. The EC squashed any threat, but does sort of look like the 00z GFS op WRT Greenland area. Models will probably go back and forth and it may very well be nothing, but interesting anyways. Not suggesting anything more, than that. So you're forecasting a KU storm with DC getting foot +. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 So you're forecasting a KU storm with DC getting foot +. Cool Well you'll be in a favorable area for mid level frontogenesis, probably 15". It's probably not going to be much of anything, but looked interesting as some key features were displayed. Unfortunately, it's not a classic look in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nam turning Weds light event into Thurs nite miller b(-)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nam turning Weds light event into Thurs nite miller b(-)? it actually looks pretty d@mn good, but has to come at the worst time of the day give me strength oh Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hmmm...my point and click: Wednesday Snow...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 it actually looks pretty d@mn good, but has to come at the worst time of the day give me strength oh Lord Man up, negative Nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Man up, negative Nancy. after this <?>winter<?> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, the 12Z nam is back to the 00Z nam look but maybe even a little colder. DCA is 34 at 18Z and 33 and change at 21Z. It certainly has a snow sounding. Not sure how much to trust it but it would argue for accumulating snow to the west and north and even dcs grass getting white at the very least and maybe even accumulating an inch or two. .25 inches of qpf as snow. That is much heavier than the euro which makes it a little suspect but the vort sure looks jazzy on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wow, the 12Z nam is back to the 00Z nam look but maybe even a little colder. DCA is 34 at 18Z and 33 and change at 21Z. It certainly has a snow sounding. Not sure how much to trust it but it would argue for accumulating snow to the west and north and even dcs grass getting white at the very least and maybe even accumulating an inch or two. .25 inches of qpf as snow. That is much heavier than the euro which makes it a little suspect but the vort sure looks jazzy on this run. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32507-february-8-storm-obsdiscussion/page__view__findpost__p__1347456 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Am I imagining? Or did the 12z NAM at 84 at h5 look at least a lil interesting? Yes, I know its the NAM at 84 but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Am I imagining? Or did the 12z NAM at 84 at h5 look at least a lil interesting? Yes, I know its the NAM at 84 but... I thought it did, but it looked like prior runs of GFS with a front then, what happens on the front is the question it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GFS advertises a below freezing day on Saturday Probabaly not making 30. -16/-17c h85 at 21z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GFS advertises a below freezing day on Saturday Probabaly not making 30 OK But do we have any snow approaching on the weekend? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 OK But do we have any snow approaching on the weekend? Rossi through 132, thats a big negative ghost rider Sunday looks a tad warmer... but 35 would be pressing it at DCA as the high on Sunday. That is, if you were following the 2m 0c line exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 through 132, thats a big negative ghost rider Sunday looks a tad warmer... but 35 would be pressing it at DCA as the high on Sunday. That is, if you were following the 2m 0c line exactly That's downright, epic. Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is brewing up something big for mid next week based on 126-144hrs. It's phasing the northern and southern stream vorts at 144 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's downright, epic. Thanks for the update. Yup it is. Could be one of the few days with a high at or below freezing this weekend for the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is brewing up something big for mid next week based on 126-144hrs. It's phasing the northern and southern stream vorts at 144 it looks like. Problem is that it's a garbage airmass out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 7 or so after the weekend is our shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Problem is that it's a garbage airmass out ahead of it. .. At more failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Problem is that it's a garbage airmass out ahead of it. Agreed. Confluence to the north helps, but no reinforcing high for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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